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rogerashton

(3,918 posts)
Sat Mar 26, 2016, 06:24 PM Mar 2016

Hillary could win the general election with 42% of the popular vote.

That's less than Bill got in '92.

A recent Monmouth poll tried a three-way race among Clinton, Trump and Gary Johnson, a candidate for the Libertarian nomination. Johnson drew 11%, Hillary 42%, and the Donald 34%.

Oddly, though, Johnson took more votes from Hillary than from Trump. Are these free-marketeers who would vote for Hillary as a lesser evil than Trump?

Of course, that popular vote would probably translate into a big electoral-vote margin, especially since Johnson's biggest vote (according to the poll) would be in red states. Swing states, where Hillary leads, are least affected. But that Presidential vote could come along with a down-ballot disaster, if Johnson voters vote Republican down-ballot.

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Ferd Berfel

(3,687 posts)
2. If that tragedy occured How much you wanta bet
Sat Mar 26, 2016, 06:57 PM
Mar 2016

she would claim a mandate (Link Bush) and ram through destructive crap like TPP (because of the mandate)

brooklynite

(93,834 posts)
5. Can you point to ANY issue where she took a position...
Sat Mar 26, 2016, 07:12 PM
Mar 2016

...diametrically opposed to a position stated in her campaign?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,704 posts)
3. The Libertarian candidate has never broke 1.5% in a nat'l election. I'll believe it when I see it...
Sat Mar 26, 2016, 06:59 PM
Mar 2016

In my fantasy scenario the GOP implodes and they split in two and a conventional Republican like John Kasich represents the old guard party. That would help us a lot...


brooklynite

(93,834 posts)
4. There won't be a significant 3rd Party candidate in this election...
Sat Mar 26, 2016, 07:11 PM
Mar 2016

The only way this is possible is if the anti-Trump coalition buy out a nomination in an existing Party with ballot access, and it won't be the Libertarians.

karynnj

(59,474 posts)
6. This depends on how it is allocated between the states (by the way I do not believe the numbers )
Sat Mar 26, 2016, 07:17 PM
Mar 2016

There is even the possibility that things could end up in the House of Representatives!

Let's say that Johnson's vote is concentrated in a few libertarian red states like Idaho and Wyoming, BUT he also gets enough in NH tipping the state to Trump. I would imagine that the people who he takes from HRC are left libertarian. (Oddly, her taking the strongest Presidential position yet against guns might be part of that - though they may suspect that her earlier comments on TPP represent what she would do as President.) You could end up with no candidate getting the number needed.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
8. I can't imagine Johnson getting that much of the vote.
Sat Mar 26, 2016, 08:15 PM
Mar 2016

I live in NM, where he used to be a governor, and I never see or hear anything about him here.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
10. I hope not. I really don't wanna see the same lies
Sat Mar 26, 2016, 08:28 PM
Mar 2016

that the GOP and the far-left uses against Clinton re: Perot return. The Perot-myth hurt the first Clinton presidency and would surely hurt the next one. It emboldened the right to claim the country was more conservative than it really was, and the far-left to claim being moderate didn't work. The former resulted in GOP obstructionism and BS, the latter resulting in Ralph Nader.

Prob won't happen: this is the only poll that's shown this result. Plus, the Clintons will probably now try to combat the guy, by any means necessary. And I hope they do.

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