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Sun Mar 27, 2016, 02:22 AM

Delegates: Sanders 956, Clinton 1234 -- 2383 needed to win

Current delegate count per Associated Press (per NY Times & Real Clear Politics)

Hawaii still pending ...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

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Reply Delegates: Sanders 956, Clinton 1234 -- 2383 needed to win (Original post)
TheDormouse Mar 2016 OP
TDale313 Mar 2016 #1
basselope Mar 2016 #2
Segami Mar 2016 #5
TheDormouse Mar 2016 #3
strategery blunder Mar 2016 #4
Barack_America Mar 2016 #6
Trenzalore Mar 2016 #7
Cobalt Violet Mar 2016 #9
Kittycat Mar 2016 #8

Response to TheDormouse (Original post)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 02:25 AM

1. Doesn't include most of Washington either.

Or all of Alaska but could be wrong about that,

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Response to TheDormouse (Original post)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 02:27 AM

2. Its actually going to be a lot closer.

 

Out of 101 delegates from WA they have only accounted for 31 of them. 23 for Bernie 9 for Clinton. Most likely Bernie will end up with about 70 and Hillary with about 30... so after Hawaii, Bernie may be over 1000 and Clinton at about 1260, with some big wins still to come for Bernie.

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Response to basselope (Reply #2)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 05:57 AM

5. If you factor in

 

and assign the full WA 101 delegates (proportionally), Bernie will have trimmed Hillary's delegate lead by about 66.



Hillary - 1229 + 4 + 7 + 27 = 1267

Bernie - 933 + 12 + 18 + 74 = 1037


1267 - 1037 = 230 delegates (Hillary)

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Response to TheDormouse (Original post)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 02:30 AM

3. yeah the map looks good going forward for Bernie

But I am worried about NY. That's a LOT of delegates there, and Hillary has a leg up because she served as senator there, the Clintons live there, and they've got the party establishment, from Schumer on down, completely locked up there.

The saving grace is that it isn't winner-takes-all.

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Response to TheDormouse (Reply #3)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 05:16 AM

4. Keep in mind that in WA the "party establishment" was also very heavily pro-Hillary

Also our party establishment is also very pro-TPP because our state probably actually stands to net benefit from it, albeit at the expense of the rest of the Union. And yet, we all saw what the WA rank-and-file thought about THAT.

Now, that doesn't negate Hillary's other advantages in NY (current homestate, represented the state as Senator), but I'm not sure the party establishment is all that UNTIL it's reckoning time at the convention. The supers don't actually get to vote until AFTER the people have voted.

WA just gave our own party establishment a big "FU, we'll vote how we want, keep your thumb off the scales." Granted we don't have quite the influence as NY, but we are THE biggest caucus state by population (13th in the Union, the 12 above us are all primary states).

If anything, we just told everyone, "Don't let the supers control YOUR vote."

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Response to TheDormouse (Reply #3)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 07:16 AM

6. NY is where momentum is so important.

I think he can close the gap considerably there.

I worry more about NJ and CT, actually.

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Response to TheDormouse (Reply #3)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 07:22 AM

7. Pennsylvania should concern you as well nt.

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Response to TheDormouse (Reply #3)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 08:49 AM

9. hoping his registration drive there this week was successful.

They think he can win there.

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Response to TheDormouse (Original post)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 08:42 AM

8. Viability and assignment

There were some areas that Hillary wasn't even viable in last night. So Bernie should receive more than just a state proportional split of delegates. Alaska for example, had 6 nonviable wins. I wonder how long until they're all assigned?

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