2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe money is on Hillary Clinton to bury Donald Trump
These operations, which distill the wisdom of crowds, turn out to be surprisingly solid when it comes to predicting presidential races. Their record for accuracy outdoes that of opinion polls.
Most Web-based political investment markets -- they don't like to call themselves betting pools, not wanting to run up against online gambling bans -- are structured to run much like commodity futures exchanges.
According to the oldest such election bourse, the Iowa Electronic Markets, which has been operating since 1988, Trump has 85 percent odds of capturing the Republican nomination this year; Clinton has a 90 percent chance of gaining the Democratic prize. And the Democrats' candidate in the fall is the favorite, by 67-33 percent. (The Iowa market, run by the University of Iowa, doesn't put a person's name at the head of the ticket before the party's nominating convention.)
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-money-is-on-hillary-clinton-to-bury-donald-trump/
baldguy
(36,649 posts)Which could not happen with Sanders.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)TheFarS1de
(1,017 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Coffee: is there anything it can't do?
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)But of course the op is complete bullshit.
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)finally have a safe place to vent it after all these years.
so let it all out.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Bless your heart!
I trust you speak Southern...
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)And can get progressive ideas passed. This is why raising funds for down ticket is so important.
Gothmog
(144,939 posts)LAS14
(13,769 posts)HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)Of course 'the money' is on HRC, the establishment and big monied interests are all in for HRC
Have to maintain the narrative against the rising tide of populism that Bernie is waging
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Look at the one-to-one matchup polls:
Friday, March 25
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton SurveyUSA Clinton 49, Trump 38 Clinton +11
Michigan: Cruz vs. Clinton SurveyUSA Clinton 49, Cruz 39 Clinton +10
Michigan: Kasich vs. Clinton SurveyUSA Kasich 46, Clinton 41 Kasich +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders SurveyUSA Sanders 55, Trump 36 Sanders +19
Michigan: Cruz vs. Sanders SurveyUSA Sanders 56, Cruz 35 Sanders +21
Michigan: Kasich vs. Sanders SurveyUSA Sanders 47, Kasich 42 Sanders +5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/