Delegate Math 3/28/16

[Botany]

Needed to win nomination: 2,383
Hillary Clinton: 1,712 (includes 469 superdelegates)

Bernie Sanders: 1,004 (includes 29 superdelegates)

Not yet allocated: 2,049

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/

The Math

HRC 2383 - 1712 = 671 671/2049 = .33 (approximately) So HRC needs 33% of the remaining delegates to win

Bernie 2383 - 1004 = 1379 1379/2049 = .67 (approximately) So Bernie needs 67% of the remaining delegates to win

[Gothmog]

1. I love math

[Botany]

3. I voted for and supported Bernie but the #s are what they are .... end of story

Gothmog

NY State might put HRC very close

291 total delegate votes - 163 district / 54 at large; 30 Pledged PLEOs; 44 Unpledged PLEOs

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-D

[Funtatlaguy]

2. This is misleading math.

Bernies staff has conceded that they need to change the minds of about 200 super delegates.
His only hope is to narrow her lead in pledged delegates to under 100 by California on June 7.
In the meantime, he will be lobbying supers in states/districts that voted big for Bernie.
The argument being that they should switch allegiance from Hillary to Bernie based on how their state/district voted.
This is a very long shot, imho, but it is the only shot Bernie has.

[HumanityExperiment]

4. Shorter...

HRC supporters are very concerned / scared about the rising momentum and excitement Bernie's campaign is creating...

[Garrett78]

11. He'll need at least 500 superdelegates on his side to reach 2383.

Sanders probably won't end up with much more than 1800 pledged delegates, while Clinton will end up with nearly 2200. She won't need more than 200 superdelegates to put her over the top. As far as I'm concerned, there shouldn't be superdelegates and the winner is whoever gets a majority of pledged delegates. If it's super close (2026-2025, let's say), then I could see superdelegates getting involved. But that won't be the case this year.

[casperthegm]

14. They know it's misleading

I'm not sure if those who post the delegate count in this manner are trying to dissuade those who don't understand how the system works or if they don't understand how it works themselves.

This is especially true of the media. I can't watch CNN any longer. Either the reporters are uninformed or they are purposely misleading when it comes to the delegate count. Either way, it's unacceptable to air the "news" in this fashion. Finding unbiased media is becoming quite a challenge.

[Land of Enchantment]

5. Wrong.

I have all the math for you! Sanders is expected to pick up 105 of the 142 delegates up for grabs Saturday. That's 73% of delegates! Before today he had to win 57.86% of delegates moving forward, after sweeping Hawaii, Alaska, and Washington, he only needs to win 56.5% of remaining delegates. This may not seem like much of a difference but with only 3.52% of delegates awarded today, this is statistically YUUUUUGE! The number of delegates Hillary needs to win went from 42.1% to 43.5%. What does this mean? Hillary went from being up 13.7% to just 9.8% in a day where only 3.52% of delegates were up for grabs! Let this sink in for a minute, there are 43.2% of delegates left to win! If we could cut Hillary's lead by 3.9% in just one day that was suppose to just be a bleep on the map, imagine what we can do before Wisconsin which is 10 DAYS AWAY! Wyoming which is 13 DAYS AWAY! And NEW YORK! New York is 24 days away which alone is worth 247 delegates, 6.12% of all delegates, twice as many delegates as today! I ran the numbers, and IF Bernie pulls 73% between now and April 19th, he will only be down 2 points (68 delegates). There will be 34.67% delegates left after New York. Currently he is down 45.1% (228 delegates) to Hillary's 54.9%

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4c2gs6/alaska_hawaii_and_washington_caucuses_results/

[Botany]

8. HRC was a senator from NY State and she lives there too

n/t

[litlbilly]

6. This is total bullshit math. Counting the sd's now since none of them have voted is

an HRC meme and is dumb to even post.

[Botany]

7. I voted for and supported Bernie but the #s are what they are .... end of story

From what I understand super delegates tend to go to party insiders and or
to the person who looks to like they will win the nomination.

I hope I am proven wrong but from where I sit the #s look much better for HRC.

[litlbilly]

9. Using the meme tend to do does not apply this time IMO

[litlbilly]

10. You are missing the big pic of what's going on. Hillary has only one place to go from here,

and that is down. Just watch

[Garrett78]

12. Nowhere to go but down until NY, PA and MD hold primaries.

At which point her delegate lead will go right back up to where it was, if not higher.

[thesquanderer]

15. Of course the #s look much better for HRC.

But that's still not a good reason to count super delegates as "done deals." Basically, all the SD have done so far is announced their preference, made an endorsement. But their votes are in play right up to the day of the convention. If Sanders has a late surge, or if he is seen as more electable, or if Hillary has a legal cloud hanging over her, they could flip on a dime in July.

[Lucinda]

13. Yep