Ted Devine conceded "it would not be enough" IF superdelegates from states he won voted for Sander
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=edit&forum=1107&thread=84352
Greg Sargent usually writes hit pieces on Hillary..I almost did not read this column. His title is misleading --Should be a Hail Mary Pass ---by the POPE himself!
Sanders needs to be honest with his donors --in all those emails we read about out there.
Sanders’s plan to win nomination by flipping super-delegates is a long shot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/28/sanderss-plan-to-win-nomination-by-flipping-super-delegates-is-a-long-shot/
By Greg Sargent March 28 at 1:26 PM
(Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Fresh off of his big wins on Saturday, Bernie Sanders appeared on the Sunday shows to make two emphatic points about what’s next in his quest to overcome what still looks like a daunting delegate lead enjoyed by Hillary Clinton. She currently leads him by around 675 delegates total — pledged and un-pledged delegates together — and she needs to win barely more than a third of remaining delegates to clinch the nomination, while Sanders would need two-thirds of them.
First, Sanders said on CNN that he and his campaign will try to persuade un-pledged delegates — so-called “super-delegates,” who decide independent of the voting — to flip from supporting Clinton to supporting him instead, on the grounds that he is the more electable candidate in November.
Second, and more narrowly, Sanders also said on CNN that super-delegates in states that he won will feel pressure to support him, rather than Clinton, in order to honor the will of those states’ voters.
The problem with this second claim is that, even if it actually happened, it all but certainly would not make a difference to the outcome.
David Wasserman, who tracks the delegate math for the Cook Political Report, calculates that even if you awarded Sanders all of the super-delegates in the states he has won so far, it would still not be enough to overcome Clinton’s lead among super-delegates. That’s because many of the states that Sanders won are caucus states — with fewer super-delegates — while many of the states Clinton won have far more super-delegates.
“If you gave Bernie all of the super-delegates in the states he’s won, it wouldn’t be enough to reverse her super-delegate lead,” Wasserman tells me.
The math on this checks out. According to figures provided by the Democratic National Committee, here are the numbers of super-delegates in the states Sanders has won so far: New Hampshire (8). Colorado (12). Minnesota (16). Oklahoma (4). Vermont (10). Kansas (4). Nebraska (5). Maine (5). Michigan (17). Idaho (4). Utah (4). Alaska (4). Hawaii (10). Washington State (17). Democrats abroad (4).
The total number of super-delegates in all the states Sanders has won thus far is: 124. Clinton currently leads Sanders by 469-29 among super-delegates who have declared support for one candidate or the other, an advantage of 440. Giving Sanders all of those super-dels in states he won would not come close to closing that gap.
Tad Devine, a top strategist on the Sanders campaign, conceded to me that even if that scenario came to pass, it would not be enough. “She still has a very significant lead,” Devine told me. “She started off with a huge advantage in super delegates.”...............
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