NY Times: Mrs. Clinton Tends To Do Best in Affluent Areas (more than $100K a year)

[amborin]

snip

Affluence

Mrs. Clinton tends to do best in affluent areas. It was even true in Mr. Sanders’s big wins this last week — she fared better in places like Seattle’s King County and Park City’s Summit County in Utah.

The model estimates that Mrs. Clinton would fare 27 points better in a county where 100 percent of households made more than $100,000 a year than she would in a demographically similar county where no households were so well off. She also does better in places where the finance industry is strong.

snip

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/29/upshot/bernie-sanders-faces-tougher-terrain-after-a-big-week.html?login=email&_r=0&mtrref=query.nytimes.com

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Quelle surprise.

[LexVegas]

2. Is that how she won what you guys call "the Confederacy"? nt

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

3. A lot of temporarily embarrassed millionaires down in these parts... nt

[Firebrand Gary]

4. +1000

[MADem]

7. Hey--it's a great article, even if the thread headline doesn't match the article. Kick and rec!

If you're a Clinton supporter, who doesn't want to see a headline that says:


Bernie Sanders Faces Tougher Terrain After a Big Week

And then, follows up with this:

Clinton Favored the Rest of the Way
Hillary Clinton could win about 54 percent of the remaining delegates, according to estimates for coming primaries based on demographic trends. She needs 44 percent to win a majority of pledged delegates.

I mean, really--what's not to love?

[Gwhittey]

9. No that one is due

To lies spread by media to paint Sanders as a racist who. This drove off many black Americans in SC and even to today they are still trying to paint him as such. There was news articles claiming he was rude to BML people and that photos of him being arrested for Civil Rights Activism in 1960s where false. This agenda was pushed by Hillary surrogates down here in SC. And people who are less informed believed it and still do.

[Uncle Joe]

15. I don't believe those demographics were damaged so much by the Arizona Voter Suppression

that took place in that state.

Perhaps that's why Hillary never came out and condemned it?

Arizona 'voter suppression' petition among fastest to reach 100,000 signatures




PHOENIX - The recent Arizona 'voter suppression' petition was among the fastest to reach 100,000 signatures to the White House.

If you're unfamiliar with the petition, it alleges voter suppression in the Arizona Presidential Preference Election, held last week. After the petition reached its signature goal of 100,000 online signatures, the White House is expected to issue a response.

According to this spreadsheet, the petition ranks among four of the most popular petitions on the website. The petition was started Tuesday and reached the goal Thursday morning.

READ: White House to respond to petition alleging voter suppression in Arizona

The petition asked the White House to investigate possible voter fraud and suppression of Democratic voters specifically:

(snip)

http://www.12news.com/news/politics/arizona-voter-suppression-petition-among-fastest-to-reach-100000-signatures/106017800

The demographics most affected were the poor, working class, Latino and Hispanic communities, along with same day voting people.

[Hortensis]

34. "One thing Sanders has going for him are the anti-obama Democrats."

Arizona is a pretty conservative state, so this is a really good thing. It iseems very likely that Sanders drew a sizeable chunk of voters who would normally go for Trump. Yay, Bernie and yay, Democrats! This is the kind of synergy that can win elections.

[oldandhappy]

5. The too big to fail crowd!

But something else was happening in the South.

[thereismore]

8. Very conservative democrats.

[fun n serious]

24. All those affluent minorities. nt

[bravenak]

36. We are so privileged.

[MADem]

6. This is a great article--it's very encouraging for HRC supporters!

Diversity
Mrs. Clinton fares best in areas with large numbers of Hispanic or black voters. She does better among these voters in the South than in the North, but it’s nonetheless an advantage for her in California and along the Acela Corridor, where there is an above-average percentage of nonwhite voters.

The model picks up on Mrs. Clinton’s strength among nonwhite voters in a few ways, but the bottom line is that she has won every primary where white voters represent a below-average share of the electorate. She has won all but one county where nonwhite voters represented a majority of eligible voters in a primary — as is now the case in California as a whole.

Her big win in Arizona might be particularly indicative of her likely strength in Southern California and the state’s Central Valley.

[synergie]

20. That's quite some spin.

I guess this portion of the article also wasn't deemed worthy of snipping.

"Mr. Sanders has generally fared poorly in the South and Appalachia, but he has tended to do better in a surprising spot: areas where there are large numbers of the old registered Democrats who vote Republican in presidential elections, but nonetheless find themselves trapped in a Democratic primary thanks to a closed or semi-closed system.

These conservative voters appear to be choosing Mr. Sanders in big numbers. You can see the traces of it in the stark increase in Mr. Sanders’s support when you cross from Georgia into the Florida Panhandle, a state with a closed primary and party registration. You can see it along the borders of Oklahoma, and along the North Carolina border as well. It shows up in another way: the large numbers of voters who are voting for “uncommitted” or a minor candidate.

It’s not entirely clear whether these voters actually support Mr. Sanders. The exit polls in Oklahoma showed Mr. Sanders winning big — 59 percent to 24 percent — among the large number (28 percent) of voters who wanted the next president to change to less liberal policies. "

[Major Hogwash]

10. The next 3 primaries are in states where Bernie is heavily favored.

Wisconsin, Wyoming, and New York.

[MADem]

14. "Heavily favored?" Do you have a source for that assertion? TIA. nt

[synergie]

21. Perhaps in some portion of a paragraph somewhere in an article that says the exact

opposite?

[thereismore]

11. She will do well in Manhattan, not so well in Brooklyn. nt

[DemonGoddess]

12. good news!

Our model estimates that Mrs. Clinton would win around 54 percent of the remaining delegates, not including nonstate contests like Puerto Rico.

[DanTex]

13. "Our model estimates that Mrs. Clinton would win around 54 percent of the remaining delegates"

Looking good for president HRC!

[Cary]

16. K&R for Hillary!

Go Dems

[KitSileya]

17. Wonderful article!

Thank you for sharing the good news, Amborin.

"It might not look too daunting after he just won at least 70 percent of the vote in five states. But the remaining states aren’t especially welcoming for him. Mrs. Clinton’s delegate advantage seems likelier to grow over the rest of the contests than to shrink. The remaining states force Mr. Sanders to confront his big weaknesses: affluence, diversity, establishment-friendly areas and closed primary contests."

See? Go Hillary!

[ThePhilosopher04]

18. Sounds right. "Selfish for Hillary"

[murielm99]

19. Thanks for sharing

this great news.

Go, Hillary!

[quantumjunkie]

22. Are Hillary Supporters Conservative Demcrats, Low Information Voters, or old/well-off?

It just baffles me why Hillary supporters prefer to stick their heads in the sand when it comes to facts when i always thought democrats were suppose to be "for the people" as liberals and progressives.

It just seems to be Hill supporters are fearful of change. Or at least too quick a change? That or they dont want change at all because they are happy where it is (e.g. well-off or old).

Just thinking aloud because it is a head scratcher why one would vote against their own interest by voting for Hillary as a democrat.

[synergie]

23. Than you for bringing this article to our attention! What great news for HRC, and how

sad for Bernie.

[SidDithers]

25. DU rec...

Mrs. Clinton’s delegate advantage seems likelier to grow over the rest of the contests than to shrink.

Sid

[thebeautifulstruggle]

26. AA's are the most conservative of the D voting block

just a fact

it's slowly changing though

[Control-Z]

27. Not sure why you felt the need to change the headline.

Bernie Sanders Faces Tougher Terrain After a Big Week is the actual headline.

Thanks for the article whatever headline you felt fit to use!

[riversedge]

28. REAL TITLE-->Bernie Sanders Faces Tougher Terrain After a Big Week

[GusBob]

29. Awesome sauce!!!

[Amimnoch]

30. K&R! Great article for Hillary!

[Walk away]

31. It looks as if the future is Hillary's!

So far, she has done about nine percentage points better in primaries than in caucuses, and three points better in closed contests than in open ones.

[one_voice]

32. I love seeing positive things about

both our candidates. Great reading about their strengths. So refreshing. Thanks for posting.

Bernie Sanders had a great week. He won big in five Western caucuses: Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Utah and Hawaii

Just this last week, Mr. Sanders beat the expectations of this model in all five caucus states (but underperformed by more in Arizona). There’s no reason he can’t do it again

Mr. Sanders has fared best in areas known for supporting anti-establishment politics — going all the way back to Teddy Roosevelt, Robert La Follette and Henry Wallace.

This model uses the last three major third-party candidates as a proxy for anti-establishment sentiment: John Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992 and Ralph Nader in 2000. It has another variable for the “Nader Democrats” — the share of Nader voters in 2000 as a percentage of the total of Al Gore and Nader voters.

These are very powerful predictors of Mr. Sanders’s strength. Alaska, for instance, has the highest number of Nader Democrats and was the best state for Mr. Sanders outside his home state, Vermont.

It bodes well for Mr. Sanders in Oregon, Montana and Wisconsin

Mrs. Clinton tends to do best in affluent areas. It was even true in Mr. Sanders’s big wins this last week — she fared better in places like Seattle’s King County and Park City’s Summit County in Utah.

The model estimates that Mrs. Clinton would fare 27 points better in a county where 100 percent of households made more than $100,000 a year than she would in a demographically similar county where no households were so well off. She also does better in places where the finance industry is strong.

That’s good news for her in the Bay Area and the Northeastern corridor — two of the most affluent regions of the country. There has already been a sneak preview of her strength there: She won decisively in Northern Virginia and the Boston metropolitan area..

Mrs. Clinton fares best in areas with large numbers of Hispanic or black voters. She does better among these voters in the South than in the North, but it’s nonetheless an advantage for her in California and along the Acela Corridor, where there is an above-average percentage of nonwhite voters.

The model picks up on Mrs. Clinton’s strength among nonwhite voters in a few ways, but the bottom line is that she has won every primary where white voters represent a below-average share of the electorate. She has won all but one county where nonwhite voters represented a majority of eligible voters in a primary — as is now the case in California as a whole.

Her big win in Arizona might be particularly indicative of her likely strength in Southern California and the state’s Central Valley.

[Laser102]

33. Happy dance!!! Yay.

[bravenak]

35. K&R!

Mrs. Clinton’s delegate advantage seems likelier to grow over the rest of the contests than to shrink.

[brer cat]

37. Great news for Hillary!

Thanks for posting.

[NastyRiffraff]

38. Great article!

And great news for Hillary! Thanks for posting, amborin (although you did get the title wrong).

[fun n serious]

39. Yes! Won't be long

Thank you for posting this.

[sheshe2]

40. Excellent article!

"Our model estimates that Mrs. Clinton would win around 54 percent of the remaining delegates"

Thanks amborin.

Brava Hillary. 2016~

[TexasTowelie]

41. K&R

[jwirr]

42. No kidding - 1% areas.

[NorthCarolina]

43. Sure, they're all just fine with status-quo.

It's the "I got mine" syndrome.