Former Obama campaign manager: 'Zero chance’ Clinton isn’t nominee"

[sufrommich]

"Clinton will end the primary, even if she underperforms the rest of the way, with a pledged delegate lead greater than Barack Obama’s in 2008.”
Clinton leads Sanders with 1,712 delegates to his 1,004, according to the latest RealClearPolitics delegates count.

Plouffe argued on Monday that the former secretary of State’s edge is mathematically impossible for Sanders to overcome

“In fact, Hillary Clinton has strengthened her hold on the nomination in the most recent contests,” he said.Because for every state that holds a contest, more delegates come off the board, and the percentage of remaining delegates Sanders has to win grows larger. The hill Bernie Sanders has to climb becomes more and more steep. Like a sheer, rock cliff.”


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/274472-obama-campaign-manager-zero-chance-clinton-isnt-nominee

[Jackie Wilson Said]

1. Maybe

Maybe not.

One thing is for sure, democracy can be alive and well if we let it.

Unfortunately the GOP has in place a system that will prevent millions of Americans from voting or having their vote counted.

[1StrongBlackMan]

2. A bunch of sads coming.

[whatchamacallit]

5. None will be sadder than Hillary supporters with buyer's remorse

[1StrongBlackMan]

7. Okay.

[MADem]

3. I think Plouffe is accurate. I also think things are going to get even uglier here, for the short

term.

I've been personally attacked a half dozen times in the last day--at least--solely because of the candidate I support. I don't see how insulting a person's character or other personal qualities makes Sanders a better option, but some here seem to think that's a workable strategy.

The go-to response to this bad news is to name call. It's unfortunate. Can't wait for all this to be over. At the same time, I am not calling for Sanders to leave the race--best that he come to that decision on his own.

[1StrongBlackMan]

8. Yes ...

I suspect there will be an extended post-primaries mourning/whining period, incomplete with a bunch of "Goodbye Cruel DU" posts and "I'ma Going Out In A Blaze Of Leftist Glory" posts ...

Then, the sun will rise and Democrats will pull together to Task One ... Defeating the gop in the General.

[Armstead]

10. Not if Clinton campaign and supporters keep up that tone

That is incredibly alienating and not conducive to contributing to the need for kumbya after the primary.

[geek tragedy]

16. I think Clinton supporters would be much more gracious if

the daily ritual of "let's post the latest Clinton is a criminal story from Jennifer Rubin/Daily Caller/New York Post/Investors.com" from people claiming to be leftier-than-thou were suspended.

"Respect us, you sheeple serving the oligarch queen" is not very persuasive either.

[Armstead]

17. You have a point to a certain extent

I don't think pointing out the strengths and weaknesses of candidates (even in a pointed way) is contrary to the spirit of a primary.

But "You're whining babies" or "You're corporate shills" is not conducive to mending fences later on. From either side.

(yeah I'm guilty of it sometimes too. But I try to behave.)

[geek tragedy]

18. I think if everyone at DU at once trashed this forum, everyone

at DU would be much happier.

[Armstead]

20. I know my clients would be happier if I did

I keep interrupting my work to "just check out" DU and get caught up in this shit too often.

[geek tragedy]

21. toxic strife and discord can be addictive, unfortunately nt

[Armstead]

22. It certainly can be

[brush]

36. Right. Every other post is anti-Clinton, including one video today on the front page . . .

saying she lied . . . for 13 straight minutes. To a newbie just discovering this site it would seem to be "Sanders Underground" now

It's been wa-a-a-a-y out of hand for quite a while and now some Sanders supporters have the cojones to hint at Clinton supporters to cool it or risk losing their votes, as if we've not had "Bernie or Bust" posts thrown in our face for months.

[DesertFlower]

58. well said. nt

[1StrongBlackMan]

23. You Sanders supporters confuse me ...

Not a couple of months ago, you all (maybe not you personally, but more than a few) you were telling Black DUers how stupid it was to let the abuse we were experiencing from Bernie supporters (some of which were/are here on DU) affect our voting decisions?!?

That seems to have changed ... Now, it is a perfectly reasonable and rational to allow slights to affect your voting decisions.

What changed?

[Armstead]

25. It's human nature rather than "Sanders supporters"

It is kind of stupid to let what people say on DU determine how one votes. The fact that Sanders supporters and Clinton supporters can be personally annoying at times has nothing to do with the merits or flaws of the candidate themselves or the positions they represent.

The exception I'd make is if one sees information and perspectives that actually change their mind in a substance-based sense.

However, if the tone is personally toxic and antagonistic -- aside from political differences -- it becomes more difficult to see the same people whom one insults or is insulted by as allies in the general..

Doesn't mean permanently, but as long as memory lasts. (To be honest, I may be on the same or different side as people I was agreeing with or disagreeing with as an Edwards then Obama supporter in 2008. My memory is not that good.)

[1StrongBlackMan]

31. This ...

However, if the tone is personally toxic and antagonistic -- aside from political differences -- it becomes more difficult to see the same people whom one insults or is insulted by as allies in the general..

was our exact point ... months ago, when we were being told how silly we were being.

Perhaps, you didn't see the posts ... again.

[Armstead]

37. I don't want to get into all that again right now

Right now everything is still being seen from all sides through the filters of candidates and competition.

If after the primaries people want to have an honest and objective and civil discussion/debate about racial sensitivities and insensitivities and how to communicate better on all sides, once we are past the framework of the ongoing campaign,s I'm happy to participate.

[1StrongBlackMan]

41. Can we also have an honest and objective conversation and civil discussion/debate

about the rank hypocrisy of Bernie supporters telling Black DUers how stupid we were to allow abusive Bernie supporters dissuade us from voting for Bernie; when, Bernie supporters, how, are calling for comity if Democrats want their votes?

Actually, we should be having that conversation now ... it'll jump start the self-reflection necessary for any honest and objective conversation and civil discussion/debate about racial sensitivities and insensitivities and how to communicate better on all sides to be honest or open or of any worth.

BTW ...

Right now everything is still being seen from all sides through the filters of candidates and competition.

The objections that Black DUers voiced about abusive Bernie supporters was not viewed through any "filters of candidates and competition".

[Hortensis]

29. Only the shift of viewpoint from "you" to "us." Fervor excess, empathy deficit still the same.

[1StrongBlackMan]

32. Yes ... I know.

[Hortensis]

34. Lol. everyone knows except them.

[1StrongBlackMan]

35. LOL ... I know that, too!

[Armstead]

39. Speaking of empathy deficit...

[Hortensis]

44. Hi. Are you answering 1StrongMan's question?

Personally, I wouldn't get into it. Those who have tried to defend the inexcusable have not helped things. To put it mildly.

[Armstead]

46. If you read my response...I am avoiding it until after the primaries

I don't think it can be discussed objectuivly in the middle of campaign fever

[upaloopa]

28. why not police your own side?

You know as well as I this blame game gets Bernie no where

[MADem]

12. I have to go on a trip and will be out of pocket for a good half day or more.

Just as well, because I'm getting some ugly comments flung at me of late!!!

[HumanityExperiment]

11. "I am not calling for Sanders to leave the race--best that he come to that decision on his own."...

Bwahahahahahha

HRC supporters 'not calling' but really calling for (wink wink) Bernie to suspend... WOW

[MADem]

13. I don't want him to suspend, either. I want him to stay for as long as he wants, and I don't want

there to be any of that "If only he'd gone on..." stuff.

Fight it all the way down to the last delegate, even if the winner has been determined well before then. That way, no one will play that "If only" card down the road.

No winking or Bwahaha-ing here. Really.

[HumanityExperiment]

15. You're the first...

you are the first HRC supporter to be open about playing this primary process through that I've seen post, I commend you on that

[INdemo]

4. That number is counting super delegates and at this point they are irrelevant

but they are a great story line for the Clinton Corporate Networks.

[bkkyosemite]

53. That number will persuade some that she is WAYYYYYYY ahead...but she ISN'T

[Gothmog]

6. I agree with Plouffe's analysis

[G_j]

9. zero?

Or is he saying the fix is in?

[Cobalt Violet]

14. yes since we're not even 1/2 way done the primary season.

He can still win.

[ibegurpard]

19. another person suffering from the delusion

That probability is fact. Something really needs to be done about this.

[bkkyosemite]

55. What do you suggest....something like say AZ

[Marr]

24. Why is it that one side here cannot seem to pitch their candidate without lying?

He's counting the super delegates in Clinton's total.

[brush]

40. And in Sanders'.

[LexVegas]

26. Momentum! FBI! nt

[nichomachus]

27. So the fix is in -- not surprising

The corporatists will do anything to get one of their own into the White House. Their attitude is "The people be damned."

[Jitter65]

30. Actually, it is really sad to see so many focusing on "allegations" of voter suppression by HRC

but almost totally ignoring the "actual" voter suppression taking place thanks to the GOP and their anti-democracy governors.

[Vinca]

33. He really should say 99.9% just in case.

There is that one little thing hanging over her head.

[bobbobbins01]

38. Uh huh, Bernie overperforms and her hold strengthens...

Up is down...blah blah, you know the drill.

I thought the math was supposed to be on Clinton's side. Because that math makes no fucking sense at all.

[Tarc]

43. math has a well-known Hillary bias

The Washington state result was good for him, but Hawaii & Alaska ain't Washington, and didn't award nearly enough delegates to make a difference. Sanders needs to win big states with big margins.

Honestly, the only reason he's still in the race at all right now is Michigan, and that was more of a moral victory than a meaningful (delegate-wise) one.

[bobbobbins01]

45. But he still over performed last week, thus doing better than expected.

That doesn't change the math in Hillary's favor at all. Of course there are less states now, and there will continue to be less states, but those wins still helped Sanders no matter how you look at it.

[Tarc]

48. Actually it does change it in her favor, as there are delegates off the board now

You are pie-in-the-sky unicorns and leprechauns if you think he can run the table 60-40 or higher the entire way.

[bobbobbins01]

49. He needed an average of 57.5% last week.

This week he needs an average of 56%. That's math! And it shows a change in Bernie's favor. Your argument about the number of delegates left is pointless...his margin to victory decreased.

[Tarc]

51. Yes, but you're running out of low-delegate closed caucuses to rule over

Even if you just upend a few spots...say they split California, Hillary gets her expected 70% in DC, Puerto Rico, and Kentucky, then takes NY at 55%, and give him all the rest at 60-40, she still comes out on top.

[bobbobbins01]

52. Well now you're just guestimating, thats not math.

We're just talking about how is wins last week affect the numbers going forward. Anything else is just speculation.

[SidDithers]

42. The race was over on March 15...nt

Sid

[HughLefty1]

50. My state doesn't vote until June 7th

I will be proudly voting for Bernie. In the meantime i won't be 'sticking a fork in him.'

[bkkyosemite]

56. That fork is getting so old.........stick a fork in this...it's not over.

[frylock]

60. Really? I thought it was over on February 1?

Errr.. February 27.. ummm March 1... wait, was it March 15? Nah, it was March 27.

[lunamagica]

47. #FeelTheMath

[UMTerp01]

54. I see no lies

And this isn't being Anti-Bernie or whatever mess some of his supporters want to claim. Doesn't matter about momentum or anything else. This is about simple math. I respect David Plouffe immensely. Had the great pleasure of meeting him when he came to Goucher College here in Maryland during a forum about the Obama presidency and the tools that went into getting him elected. Its math...simple math based on the way delegates are given out proportionally. Thats why Bernie needs not just wins, but overwhelming wins in every state from here on out if he stands a chance to catch her. Its not happening. Thats why he's begun to make a play for the supers. We can have a separate discussion on Hillary's chances in the general and Bernie does better in polls. None of that matters regarding the math. Math don't give a damn about who polls better in the general. Take the feeling out of it no matter which side you are on and look at the math. Hillary has built too much of a pledged delegate lead for him to catch up realistically. Don't even need the supers in this conversation.

[grntuscarora]

57. Great. Then tell the coronated nominee

to debate in NY, since it's no skin off her nose, and it will please many of her soon to be subjects!

Methink he doth protest too much.

[Octafish]

59. A little birdie told him?