Why Hillary Clinton Should Be Worried About Ross Perot

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/ross-perot-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-1992-2016-campaign-election-213774

Why Hillary Clinton Should Be Worried About Ross Perot

As the Clinton camp looks ahead to the November election, it’s not clear whether this is a time to celebrate or panic. Its leading opponent isn’t the kind of conventional Republican it has been gearing up to run against: He’s a total outsider with wildly devoted fans and an off-the-cuff — some say crazy — populist style that’s nearly impossible to predict.

The year? 1992.

When it comes to precedents for the wild and woolly 2016 campaign, H. Ross Perot’s 1992 independent run is largely forgotten, but it may be the most crucial one for Hillary to keep in mind. It’s easy to look at the 19 percent Perot drew in the popular vote and dismiss his importance: that’s actually an enormous showing without major-party backing, bested only twice in history—both times by ex-presidents. The true miracle was that Perot made any showing in November at all: At the very peak of his popularity, as the summer general election campaign got rolling, Perot dropped out. He didn’t return to the race until early October—claiming he’d been forced from the race by a blackmail plot involving his daughter, her impending marriage, and compromising photos—without enough time to run a full-scale national campaign.

For a crucial moment in the summer of ’92, Perot was the biggest story in American politics. For the better part of three months, he led all candidates—ahead of both Bill Clinton and incumbent President George H.W. Bush—and upended the conventional wisdom about the issues that American voters were concerned about.

Great read about why a Clinton nomination would be an absolute disaster.

[whatthehey]

1. And the result was....?

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

4. Did you read it?

The only reason Perot likely lost is because he dropped out from the summer until October because of a blackmail plot against him.

[whatthehey]

8. Well if you believe that sure, but what's the point?

Any likely 3rd party run would help not hurt HRC, unless Bernie goes against his initial plan, which I strongly doubt.

[emulatorloo]

9. He 'claimed' there was a blackmail plot against him

Important distinction if we are going to rehash history.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

10. Okay, but the point is he dropped out in the summer and only rejoined in October and still got...

19% of the popular vote... Before he dropped out he was the frontrunner...

[emulatorloo]

13. Nah, the point is a slow news day at POLITICO.

Elsewise this speculative 'story' probably wouldnt have been published.

[Jarqui]

2. If it's Trump V Clinton, I cannot imagine that someone wouldn't wade in

as an independent.

With the unfavorability of those two candidates along with the desire for real change in Washington, I think an Independent would have a good shot.

They'd have a great shot if it wasn't for the corporate media having their thumb on the scale. That would probably be one of their big problems with the other being having no organization to GOTV and a campaign staff that's quickly pulled together.

[onehandle]

5. An independent (most independents lean or are conservative) would take from the Republican vote.

See: Ross Perot

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

6. Not if it were Bernie nt

[onehandle]

7. I love it when people post here who clearly know nothing about Bernie.

As ever, The 'Not Hillary' Party is not doing Senator Sanders any favors.

[emulatorloo]

11. Bernie will not mount a third party run. He is a man of his word.

He will campaign for the Democratic nominee. Hopefully the nom will be Bernie. But if not, he will endorse and campaign for HRC. Like most of us, he will do everything in his power to ensure that a Republican is not elected President.

[Jarqui]

15. I'm not so sure

The odd thing is Trump has had some Democratic leanings. He's a racist, misogynist and hard right that way but in other policies, like healthcare, he's been closer to Democrats in the past. Like Hillary, he could do darn near anything - he's not that principled.

Hillary is a weathervane that will probably be Republican lite in the election to try to get votes.

So anyone who isn't too far right or too far left has a shot.

I'll bet the GOP regard independents as leaning left like we progressives see them as right leaning.

If Bernie had run as an independent, he'd have had a fair shot but he'd be hurt some by being further left.

I think a true independent would draw from both Trump and Hillary and which way they lean would determine which of Hillary or Trump would lose the most support.

[onehandle]

3. stre.....................................tch nt

[Starry Messenger]

12. By god, he *is* still alive. I had to check. 85 tho, I think we are safe

[MineralMan]

14. Yet another post about Bill Clinton...

He's not running, you know. He was President for two terms, Ross Perot notwithstanding.

Now, Hillary Clinton is running for that office. They are not the same person. Posts about Bill Clinton in 1992 are completely irrelevant to the 2016 election, it seems to me, and way out of date.

I suppose you think your post has some relevance, but I'm afraid it does not.

[pampango]

16. The parallels between the strengths of Perot and Trump are interesting. Any Democratic candidate

pay attention to that.

Lesson 1: Don’t underestimate the dramatic appeal of a nonpolitician

Perot appealed to voters precisely because his demeanor and blunt politically incorrect language were the opposite of what Americans had in mind when they thought of a politician. ... That’s the engine of steaming discontent driving the Trump train. Beyond the most politically active Trumpites, most of his supporters are driven by a simple pervasive rationale: Washington is broken; politicians are the worst. The solution? Send a businessman to knock some heads together.

Lesson 2: Nobody cares about the details

Perot repeated this mantra throughout the 1992 campaign: Only the media was interested in policy specifics. Action trumps experience. ... That’s Trump’s message in a nutshell—and it’s effective. ... Viewed through this lens, Perot and Trump have been able to give it to Washington with both barrels. Their business successes resonate with voters looking for a take-charge cowboy ...

Lesson 3: Race can trump the economy, stupid

Unlike Trump, Perot never overtly stoked the embers of racism. That isn’t to say he was faultless. ... While Perot’s campaign was far more associated with his opposition to free trade than with his stance on racial issues, his campaign consistently pitted the old Nixon silent-majority types against an other. ... He was selling a fear of Mexicans taking American jobs in their own country, and also crossing the border to take them here.

All this us-versus-them polarization draws loyal followers—but even in Perot’s milder form, it alienated Americans who feared they might be part of the “them.” And it showed at the ballot box: Perot voters were diverse across partisan, ideological, age, and income lines—far more so, according to exit polls, than tea party activists nearly a decade later—but when it came to race, 94 percent of Perot’s voters were white.