Clinton Collapsing? New Marquette Poll for Wisconsin: Sanders 49, Clinton 45.

[Karmadillo]

I first posted this from what I heard on CNN. Here's a link to a description of the poll from the Hill:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/dem-primaries/274689-poll-sanders-leads-clinton-in-wisconsin-ahead-of-must-win/

Bernie Sanders has opened up a 4-point lead over Democratic presidential rival Hillary Clinton among voters in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday afternoon.

When asked to pick between Sanders, Clinton and someone else, 49.2 percent of likely Democratic primary voters opted for the Vermont senator, while 44.9 chose the former secretary of State.

None of the participants named a third candidate, but 5.5 percent said they have yet to make up their mind.

In the February version of the same poll, Sanders led Clinton 44 percent to 43 percent.

[morningfog]

1. Looking good. Bernie consistently overperforms the polling, too.

[debunction.junction]

17. 538 is currently showing the Polling Average (not forcast) to be Bernie 47.4 / Hillary 46.2

538 is showing the latest poll -- Marquette Law School March 24-28.

Bernie 49 / Hillary 45

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/

[hrmjustin]

2. 6% margin of error.

The interesting thing in the poll was that Independents are more likely to vote in the gop primary. That means less independents for Sanders.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

4. Okay and he is still leading in the poll even with that fact...

No wonder Clinton pulled up shop.

[hrmjustin]

8. The poll was also taken over a major holiday.

I think he will win but I want to see more info. I have seen conflicting info about whether she is pulling out of the state.

[Orsino]

18. He's not leading if his lead is within the margin of error. n/t

[TheDormouse]

41. tell that to the networks nt

[beedle]

6. are you saying

we can't trust the polls?

unless .....?

[hrmjustin]

9. I am giving you a number from the poll.

6% margin of error is a big margin.

[beedle]

14. right, and being up by 4 of those 6% means

.... there's a small chance that Hillary might have a 2% lead ... about the same chance as Bernie having an 10% lead.

[hrmjustin]

16. Exactly.

[sibelian]

38. For which candidate? Just one....

... or both of them?

[hrmjustin]

40. The overall poll has a 6 percent margin of error.

[chknltl]

3. Hope so. nt

[hack89]

5. It has been neck and neck in WI since January.

not a collapse. Even as Hillary was blowing out Bernie in other states, Bernie was gaining in WI.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/

[BernieforPres2016]

7. I think Bernie needs to pull over 60% in Wisconsin

And I think he will do it. If Hillary has pulled out of the state as stories have suggested, their polling data has got to be a lot worse than a 49-45 deficit.

[hack89]

11. Her target for WI is 38 delegates, Bernie's is 48

She is more likely to make hers than Bernie is to make his.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

12. Nope her internal polling must be ringing alarm bells of no hope

Makes total sense why she would pull out of the state completely. She has to do what she can to hold in New York because rumor is the numbers are starting to look shaky there too

[hack89]

19. Right. You keep believing that if it gets you through the week. nt

[closeupready]

36. Ah! The warmth and love we've all come to expect from Hillary's supporters.

[hack89]

39. Sorry but I have no patience for magical thinking

this should be a reality based community. Posts like the one I replied to leave one with the strong sense that you are being trolled - I don't appreciate it one bit.

[CorporatistNation]

25. If You ThinkThis Trough Just A Little Bit... You Have To Realize That Her "Waterloo" is New York!

Anything even remotely close to a tie in New York Is A... BIGGG WINNN For Bernie and signals the cascade of collapse for Clinton Incorporated...

People are awakening from their inattention and recognizing that a Hillary candidacy is rife with major problems... Mostly of her own manufacture over decades. Hillary did not just make one friggin mistake. Her track record is one of ongoing inattention to the larger consequence of decisions most often with her number one priority being how a given decision enhances her path to the Presidency... Iraq, Libya... Server at home... Speeches to Goldman... The list is endless... Endlesssss.... endlessssss......

So ask yerself... why would Hillary be skeeerrrrttt to debate Bernie in Brooklyn BEFORE THE NY Primary???

Go Bernie!

[HereSince1628]

51. Every win outside NY lowers the pressure/importance of NY for both candidates

Because Sanders is behind, he clearly and persistently has more pressure on him.

Yet, each time Sanders wins or finishes close he hangs on; it makes Clinton look unable to put him away. And that means putting him away requires a bigger win down the road. Big prizes are on the schedule, but the pressure mounts a bit.

People in WI pretty much thought it'd be over by mid-March, HRC's inevitability was in the air here, and Clinton's polling was up. But, Sanders survival in the west has helped him here and his polling numbers have swung 9 points while hers have dropped by a bit more, and unexpectedly undecideds having grown a bit.

Considering undecideds and polling error, WI is now pretty difficult to predict. It seems that soft support that fled from hims as HRC won in IL and OH has returned to Sanders and the race here is a matter of single digits.

[reddread]

10. most definitely

while the foisted narrative may not deviate, most rational adults have a sense of US Political
voting behavior, at least in recent history,
certainly the most relevant segment necessary to understand the disconnect
being phoned in this primary.

This may be a leading example of American Evolution in textbooks of the near future.

I may have a hard time with very small print, but my lying eyes dont need a prescription.
I just hope if she needs any help packing up her baggage, she will feel free to call me.

[geek tragedy]

13. I think Clinton would be very happy with a 6 point loss in Wisconsin.

That would amount roughly to a 5-6 delegate loss, which is a lot less than Sanders needs to make up his deficit.

[SheenaR]

15. Let's not overreact

Sanders should win Wisconsin. The betting (not prediction) markets are making him a bigger and bigger favorite daily there.(Yet 538 is still on the polar opposite) But it's not a collapse if she loses here.

It's all about NY.

NY win for Sanders? Then you start contemplating a potential collapse.

[Autumn Colors]

29. I absolutely believe he'll win NY

unless shenanigans happen (and that could be very likely). It needs to be such a blowout in terms of turnout that shenanigans make no difference.

[SheenaR]

31. That will be the first real game changer

if he is to win. It wasn't Iowa, it wasn NH or MI. NY will be the one if he can do it

She is very well liked and won her elections for Senate handily. It won't be easy.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

22. I think that is a little optimistic...

But hopeful he can pull out a big win and close the gap even more, as well as building more momentum heading into New York.

[KingFlorez]

30. It's not a caucus

Outside of Vermont, Sanders hasn't pulled that sort of number in a primary. There is no way that will ever happen.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

44. New Hampshire?

[workinclasszero]

21. A close Bernie win

is a victory for Hillary, don't forget.

[JudyM]

26. Yep. He needs to make up more ground.

[morningfog]

45. No it is not. Anything to cuts into her delegated lead is a win.

[Politicalboi]

27. We can expect Captain Blow Horn to there at the polls

[FreakinDJ]

28. she did in 08 and she is again in 16

[KingFlorez]

32. Sanders needs to do much better than that

Four points isn't going to make a dent in the delegate math. The damn "Clinton Collapsing" meme is really outdated considering who has the delegate lead.

[workinclasszero]

37. "Clinton Collapsing" meme"

Its funny ain't it?

If she keeps "collapsing" by 4%, she got the nomination on lockdown LOL

[morningfog]

46. He will do better than that. He consistently does better than the polling, especially 6 days out.

[cosmicone]

33. WI will be just like OH

No independents and repukes to cause mischief. All repukes will be busy electing or destroying trump and won't be able to spare any votes to cut Hillary down.

[morningfog]

47. Bookmarking.

[amborin]

34. she's campaigning today in Milwaukee on gun control; days after fundraising w/ NRA lobbyist

[TheDormouse]

42. shameless

[Faux pas]

35. Kickin'

[Godhumor]

43. Clinton would be very happy with a 4 point loss in WI

Sanders would be underperforming his magic delegate number by quite a margin with that narrow of a win.

Again, right now it is all about attrition. Every state that finishes its voting removes another pool of delegates for a Bernie comeback. If he can't start winning delegate rich primaries by decent margins, he can't make up the ground.

[Uncle Joe]

48. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Karmadillo.

[tomm2thumbs]

49. I'm guessing that doesn't include Independents

I may be wrong, but survey was ' likely Democratic voters '

hope numbers including Independents would be an uptick on that

[NorthCarolina]

50. WI is an open primary. Voter registration info "fudging" won't help....so

on to NY where they have a closed primary and AZ shenanigans will replay nicely.

[MisterP]

52. leading in three polls so far