2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNo, the Democratic Race Isn't Close
Last edited Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:03 AM - Edit history (1)
Victoria Brownworth ?@VABVOX 1h1 hour ago"Think the Democratic Primary is close? It's not close."
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-30/no-the-democratic-race-isn-t-close?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=56fce00a04d301205f9a8d6d&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
One of CNN's on-screen headlines on Wednesday was Democratic Race Tight Without Superdelegates. That is not true.
How bad is it for Bernie Sanders? A new survey in Wisconsin released today by the highly respected Marquette Law poll gave the Vermont senator a solid lead, 49 percent, to 44 percent for Hillary Clinton -- which is terrible news for Sanders if he hopes to capture the nomination. Thats because he would need to win by a much larger margin in Wisconsin -- Nate Silver estimates a 16-percentage-point landslide -- to get on pace to finish with more pledged delegates than Clinton.
And thats not the worst of it. In New York, where Sanders would need to win by 4 percentage points, the polls have him 20 points behind Clinton. The situation is even worse in Pennsylvania.
Of course, the polls can change, but theres no particular reason to believe they will. And polls can be wrong, as they were in Michigan (where Sanders won despite a large polling lead for Clinton). Still, the polls have been accurate in most states this year.
Sanders is running an impressive campaign and winning lots of supporters, but he simply isnt close to winning the nomination. Nor is that some sort of fluke related to the way Democrats do things. After all, since he gained on Clinton over the summer and fall, shes maintained a fairly stable lead of about 10 percentage points in the primaries and caucuses.
Hes exceeded what he needed to do in caucus states. But hes underperformed in primary states. That leaves him about 100 delegates short of where he would need to be at this point, and about 250 pledged delegates behind Clinton overall.
read more: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-30/no-the-democratic-race-isn-t-close?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=56fce00a04d301205f9a8d6d&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
Gothmog
(143,998 posts)Human101948
(3,457 posts)What a great day for America!
Gothmog
(143,998 posts)Why should the person with the largest number of votes and delegates lose?
Vinca
(50,168 posts)snowy owl
(2,145 posts)I agree with you. If Bernie loses - and I'm pretty convinced his chances are minimal - I don't understand why some people can't have the patience to let everybody vote.
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)I guess the masses are always right - right? I don't think so. We did have Nixon, Bush and Reagan. Sometimes they make mistakes. Can you tell me how you know that Clinton will be the best of the two? I keep looking for evidence that she is the strongest candidate to run the country but so far, no one has posted any.
Human101948
(3,457 posts)The Pet Rock was very popular as well.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
Response to SidDithers (Reply #5)
Post removed
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Bernie's not only just as electable as(if not more electable than) HRC, and would treat Canada far better than she would.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Isn't it enough for him to insult progressives in his OWN country?
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)22 primaries left, Bernie needs 56% or better of those 22 to beat Hillary
Math... or something...
All these troll baiting OPs show a growing level of desperation and fear by HRC supporters
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)panader0
(25,816 posts)why do they post such ugly and nasty posts?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Or have you not noticed all of the "throw Hillary in jail" stuff coming from Team Bernie?