New Fox poll puts Hillary ahead in NY, 53 to 37.

[pnwmom]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/10/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll-new-your-pennsylvania/index.html

In New York, Clinton leads Sanders 53% to 37%; and in Pennsylvania, she tops him 49% to 38%.

While both Clinton and Trump are playing up their home state ties ahead of the New York primary, the former New York senator would trounce the New York real estate developer by 16 points in a general election match-up, according to the poll.

Trump would also lose to Brooklyn-born Sanders by 19 points based on the survey of New York voters.
The New York poll surveyed 1,403 New York voters between April 4-7. For Democrats, 801 likely primary voters were polled for a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; for Republicans, 602 likely primary voters were surveyed for a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

The Pennsylvania poll surveyed 1,607 Pennsylvania voters between April 4-7. For both Democrats and Republicans, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

[KPN]

1. Yeah, Fox had her ahead in Michigan

by 40 too.

[pnwmom]

2. No comparison. Michigan opened its voting to independents.

Last edited Tue Apr 12, 2016, 02:21 AM - Edit history (1)

New York, OTOH requires that registered voters were affiliated with the Democrats by last October. Even new voters had to register as a Dem by a month before the voting date.

And the state reports that there were only 14,000 new registrations before registration closed. So there will be no last minute Bernie-surge in New York.

Also, the Demographics aren't as favorable for Bernie -- there were 79.9% "white only" voters in Michigan vs. only 70.4 "white only" voters in New York.

[jfern]

3. Nope, the deadline to register in Michigan was a month before the primary

[pnwmom]

4. You're right -- the source I was looking at was wrong. HOWEVER, that's only for new MI voters.

New Yorkers who were already registered had to be Democrats or switch to Democrats by last October. And there were a lot more independents in this category than who weren't registered at all.

[pat_k]

5. Are the missing 10% (NY) and 13% (PA) undecided?

Clinton's been on the national stage for for a couple decades -- first lady, senator, pres. candidate, secty of state, and now pres. candidate again. People know her (at least anybody over 25 does).

If the missing percentages are undecided, it sure sounds there's a significant number who know Clinton, but are hesitant about voting for her. You know, people looking for an alternative.

I don't know if I'd be so thrilled with those numbers if I were her. Particularly when you add in her high negatives.

People are getting to know Sanders. And as they do, his numbers go up. (As the major differences between early voting results and election day results have demonstrated in other states.)

[pnwmom]

6. There's been a similar number in other primaries. She's still well ahead.

It's really pretty ridiculous to pretend that New Yorkers are just now getting to know the Senator from next-door, a man who has never kept his mouth shut over his many decades of service in the House and Senate.

It's one thing to say people in Wyoming didn't know him. Quite another to pretend people in New York don't.

P.S. To meet her fivethirtyeight.com target delegate count in NY -- to get a number that will just maintain the current large gap -- Hillary needs less than half of the delegates. Everything after that is gravy.

[pat_k]

8. I make no predictions. Just noting.

I refrain from making predictions. I prefer to wait for outcomes. Just noting what seems to be a high number of undecideds at this point, particularly given that lots of the "likely voters" polled would be Dems who cast a vote for her in 2006, or cast one for or against her in the 2008 primary.

I have my doubts that the percentage of people who would have been able to tell you who Bernie Sanders was a year ago is very high. Perhaps higher in NY than WY, but still not very high. I could be wrong, but in my assessment, a majority are getting to know him through his campaigning.

On the other hand, any person over 25 would pretty much have to have been living in a cave to miss Hillary.

[Binkie The Clown]

7. And since we all put so much trust in Fox "News"...

... Oh, wait. No we don't!

[pnwmom]

9. When I posted about another poll yesterday, a Bernie supporter told me

that he was waiting for the results of the Fox poll that was about to come out.

And then for some reason he didn't bother to post it.