Is There Anyone Here Who Still Thinks Bernie Can Win the Nomination?

[tgards79]

And if so, please explain the path?

[Laffy Kat]

1. Yes. I think just about anything is possible at this point. nt

[tgards79]

4. OK, but...

...what is the path? I mean, how will/can it happen? Are you just wishing or is there some logic behind the wishing?

[Laffy Kat]

20. Look, I will vote for HRC if she is the nominee...

But speculating about how Bernie could win it would also be speculating how Hillary could lose it and I don't want to go there. Who in a million years thought tRump would make it this far, EVER? It's been such a wild ride already. Yes, I do believe anything could happen. Kumbaya, ya'll.

[dchill]

28. I'm with you, Laffy Kat.

[Laffy Kat]

37. ...

[CorporatistNation]

65. The Longer Bernie Remains In The Race.. The More Likely It Is That HE WILL BE THE NOMINEE!

As more people become better acquainted with Hillary they begin to understand just who the F she really is!

Bernie just opened a campaign office in California!

[Karma13612]

105. Such Good news!!!! And I do agree with your sentiment about being in longer...

Bernie is in it to win it!

And he can win it!

[Orsino]

107. "Anything is possible" is the answer you just accepted to what is really a very small question.

But Sanders is pursuing much more than just the nomination. He is competing for hearts and minds among the Democratic elite and supporters, and to influence the direction the party takes at the convention and beyond. he's trying to help save America.

A candidate who is only fighting for the nomination isn't thinking big enough, and the same goes for us. I am in this to help us acquire the tools we need for progressive change, and that agenda isn't dependent on any one candidate or any one election.

Think bigger. Much is at stake.

[Califonz]

2. It's up to the FBI and Justice Department

[tgards79]

5. Ah, so that is the only hope?

[NWCorona]

7. It's not that simple.

[Thinkingabout]

17. Talking to a RWer tonight, this their first talking point, hoping for an indictment, nothing to

Indict. Not going to happen.

[grasswire]

3. yes nt

[silvershadow]

14. +1.

[berniepdx420]

26. +1

[Dem2]

6. It's methematically possible

Errr, don't to meth, I meant mathematically possible. (the typo was unintentional, but too funny to correct.)

[tgards79]

10. So Hillary will be caught with some meth?

Far more likely than an FBI indictment.

[Dem2]

12. Lol

U made me laugh.

[Nonhlanhla]

29. Nah, she's been caught with a bag of math instead. So she'll win.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

41. Bag of math? I thought it was hot sauce.

[Nonhlanhla]

43. The hot sauce is just to add some...hotness.

It's the math that matters...

[dchill]

31. Oh? How bad IS her method problem?

[NanceGreggs]

13. But it was explained months ago ...

... that any numbers showing HRC in the lead is corporate math.

I never actually understood "corporate math" - but I think it has to do with pretending that real math doesn't exist.

[Dem2]

16. Well, you know 538 is in the bag for Hillary

It's true cuz I read it on the DU. Either that or the poster was doing meth.

[NanceGreggs]

19. That's because ...

... 538 is like part of The Establishment, man.

[JaneyVee]

8. No.

[Demsrule86]

45. right wing smears

I will be so happy when you folks are tossed out of here for helping republicans.

[griffi94]

49. Yeah and RW smears from 25 years ago.

Like you I can't wait til she's the presumable nominee
so this place can go back to being a place for Democrats.

[Cheese Sandwich]

50. Bill Cosby. Just sayin

[griffi94]

51. The Clintons

Target of more witch hunts than any family in the last 50 years.
nothing ever came from any of them.
That's all i'm saying

[SidDithers]

11. You must have missed last night's threads...

of how Bernie was going to gain 100 delegates from KY, OR and IN.



Sid

[lmbradford]

15. II believe that he will secure more pledged delegates

I also am not going to waste my time with you....ignoring.

[Codeine]

94. Still not going to correct the lie you've been

called out on by others in a number of threads?

[NWCorona]

18. Yes

Because even though some think in absolutes, the door isn't closed.

NY was a blow but the delegate swing for Hillary's wasn't that bad. NY also had that terrible voter registration deadline. Where all of the primaries next week. The deadline was a month ago or less.

We are back to waiting on another Tuesday to pass lol.

[larkrake]

21. yes, she could flame out as Panama papers leak, and usb comes to the fore

Trump will certainly bring up both

[Tarc]

22. "Anything you can do I can do better!"

That's really the essence of Bernie's problem is that he has to make significant delegate gains while preventing her from getting much of any, which at this point is a virtual impossibility when all primaries and caucuses are proportional.

Math.

[cherokeeprogressive]

23. Me. Winning.

[Blue_In_AK]

24. Anything is possible.

None of us can foretell the future.

[Aerows]

34. Honestly

I'd be scared shitless to view my own future.

What if I turn out to be the little old lady that screams at kids to get off of her lawn?

[Blue_In_AK]

35. That's me.

More like "get out of my flower beds, you little hellions."

[Aerows]

44. "if you insist on dancing

it's fine, but you will need to do it away from my tomato plants.

And my cucumbers and my eggplant.

I like to dance but messing up my vegetable crop would be wrong.

Hey, on a side note, what fertilizer do you use? I'm having serious trouble with aphids, too.

[TheFarseer]

25. It's pretty much down to FBI investigation

Or some new scandal. I don't think Bernie will win but I think he owes it to his supporters and contributors to stay in and let them vote for him if they wish. I would highly suggest he be positive and just promote him self or go after republicans.

[Demsrule86]

42. well the great one

said he won't do that ...he will continue his attacks and his attempt to overturn the vote. Next week should be so miserable for him that he may just give up...hope so.

[Ed Suspicious]

52. He should campaign, just not too well.

Good plan.

[TheFarseer]

83. It's not crazy to change to a positive strategy

or a go after the Republicans strategy. If he wanted to take the gloves off and really go after her, he should have done that already. Now it's too late. And believe me, I was crushed when he didn't win NY. I wanted him to win as much as anyone!

[brush]

58. His contributers — that's problematic

Yesterday David Plouffe gently suggested that Bernie needs to really sit down and re-access the continue appeal for funds from his supporters because to continue that while knowing there is no path to getting the nomination is fraud.

You can't take money for something you know is not going to happen.

[berniepdx420]

27. ///

http://usuncut.com/politics/clinton-super-pac-busted/

[Aerows]

30. Raises hand

and I think Bernie treads his own path and thank heavens for that.

[reddread]

32. in an eternity, anything is possible

pedantry pedestrian.
the only one that needs to be nervous is hillary.

[Bread and Circus]

33. Honestly, as someone who loves Bernie, his chances are almost zero.

And always have been. Partly because it has been a very rigged process.

[Demsrule86]

36. No

He lost. His only path is to buy off delegates how funny is that.

[Csainvestor]

38. Yes he can.

I expect him to win the majority of the contests that are left. I expect him to win at least 3 landslides as well.

KY OR Puerto RICO and IN should let Bernie cut massivley into hills lead. Then he will finish the rest of the west.

This will come down to CA.

[Demsrule86]

47. Not happening

And the more he loses ...the less people will vote for him...by the way Kentucky is a Southern state so he can't count it .

[questionseverything]

53. it will come down to cali

[brush]

61. Puerto Rico? Come on, if the primaries have shown us anything . . .

it's that Sanders doesn't do well with minorities.

[winter is coming]

39. This is not a typical election. Bernie's already done much better than anyone

would have imagined, a year ago. I don't think either Bernie or Hillary will go to the convention with enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. The superdelegates won't vote for another three months. If Hillary were confident of retaining their support, Brock wouldn't be laying money out for internet psy ops.

Whether or not he can win, I want Bernie to take as many pledged delegates to the convention as possible. I'm not done, nor do I expect to be, any time soon.

[Demsrule86]

46. why?

He won't win and he just make us more likely to lose every day he stays in.

[Ed Suspicious]

54. If she can't stand up to the campaign Bernie is running, she's fucked in the general. Tough it up.

[apnu]

101. Bernie has never led in this contest.

Not in pledged delegates or popular vote accross the whole party.

But he has dragged Hillary to the left, doninated and defined the topics and subjects of this contest, and energized a lot of voters who, otherwise, would be sitting this one out.

All of that is amazing, I hope he keeps going we need his fire and the youth he's brought to the party. We need more loud and bold left/liberal/progressive statements and policies. America has always been at its best when led from liberal principals.

[winter is coming]

104. He hasn't dragged Hillary anywhere. Her campaign rhetoric has shifted, and

would likely shift back as soon as he left the race. She doesn't energize people in the way Bernie does, nor do I have any reason to believe she supports his positions. The primary schedule and debate schedule were constructed in a way to favor Hilary and she started the process with the highest possible name recognition and yet is still struggling against an opponent many dismissed as a fringe candidate a year ago. She's ahead because she's had more advantages, not because she's the stronger candidate. We're going to be in trouble in November if she's nominated.

[apnu]

106. We don't know that until she does that and its on us to call her out on it.

Hillary hasn't struggled with Democrats, and their allies, look at the union endorements. Bernie has not gone after Democrats, he's staging a tea-party-like insurgency on the Democratic Party. He went after young voters and other progressives and left-of-liberal people. They were his only options to be successful at all. Which is brilliant tactics on Bernie's part.

Hillary is hardly struggling in the party. She struggles with progressives and whit youth, but she's very strong with women and PoCs.

I'm not denying that DWS hasn't stacked the deck for Hillary and has been hamfisted doing so, she has. But we have to decide if we want to let that stand or change the party. That's on us, not Bernie.

As for the GE, I think all of the Republican choices are DOA come November. The Democrats could run a ficus plant and a brick and they'd win. The Republicans are that bad and toxic right now. Republicans I know are not energized at all by Trump or Cruz.

Trump's people are the rapidly diminishing Tea Baggers and other marginalized conservatives. Like the Klan and Neo-Nazis. He is not stirring anybody in the RNC or lifelong Republicans that don't wear sheets.

Cruz excites only the religious right. Another diminishing voting block who is threatening to fully break away from the party.

The Republicans are such a mess now, this election is a gift to any Democrat.

[griffi94]

40. I notice that a lot of Bernie supporters

answered the first half of your question
and that they mostly all skipped over the second half where you asked
how.

Haha
Bernie is done.
The people who are hoping for an 11th hour scandal will be disappointed.
I don't even think a scandal or an indictment could save Bernie now.

He's already much too far down.
And after Tuesday he'll be even farther down.

His momentum is gone.

[Ed Suspicious]

55. We then her eminence should quit spending against him and move on to the pukes. I mean if there

no threat there, the wtf is she doing?

[griffi94]

56. She's mostly been campaigning

That's why she's winning.

[Stuckinthebush]

95. And he has not ingratiated himself with the party

Dumb move for someone who needs the party members to vote for him.

He's toast. No probable path to victory

[sadoldgirl]

48. No, because the cheating by the party

as well as the establishment will succeed as usual.

That is, however, coming to the GE, a question,
since the republicans are even better at it and
have a longer experience in that regard.

The party does not care, if Kasich or Ryan wins.

GOAL: Keep the status quo at any expense.

[AgingAmerican]

60. The more this goes on, the more I am convinced you are right

Preserving the corporate goose that lays the golden eggs is the main goal of the establishment. It's about self enrichment.

[virtualobserver]

57. Yes ...He has pulled to within 1 1/2 points in the national polls...this is the tipping point

If he can take the lead in the national poll average. he will have proven that Hillary is no longer the frontrunner in the minds of the American people.

No modern Democratic nominee has ever gone into the convention losing in the national polls, and if Bernie can take that lead in the next couple of weeks, it will affect the outcome of every contest going forward.

Hillary is broke, and getting "broker"......desperately searching for rich donors.


So, Yes he can.

[Ed Suspicious]

62. But there are only 19 more states to go and a mere 1400 available delegates.

I mean math. Everybody knows you can't get 250 more than the opponent out of 1400. Right? I mean, math or something like that.

[Garrett78]

71. He'd have to win 825 of those 1400. 825 to 575.

Or more actually, as I think Clinton's lead is a little greater than 250. She could easily lead by 300+ after April 26, at which point there will be 1016 available delegates. Meaning Sanders would need to win approximately 65% of those 1016.

So, yeah, math.

[Jester Messiah]

59. Only if the superdelegates see sense.

And no, the irony is not lost on me. But Bernie would be the stronger candidate in the GE. Hillary is electoral poison. When we're outside the bounds of primary rules, she'll be slaughtered.

[Codeine]

92. So thwarting the voters is his path?

I remember when you guys were apoplectic at the idea that Clinton might use supers to win if Bernie had a delegate lead. But now it's your only hope!!

[Stuckinthebush]

96. Yep

And a silly path it is.

So the guy who never was a party member and who constantly attacks the party is planning on turning hundreds of party leaders away from a strong party member because of his glorious radiance?

Delusional.

[Jester Messiah]

109. I did say I was aware of the irony.

Ass.

[mia]

63. Yes.

Following the straight and narrow path...

[hollysmom]

64. I will support him to the end because I do not want a hawk in the white house.

[SHRED]

66. Will HRC get the required delegates prior to the convention?

[Garrett78]

68. She'll win a clear majority of the pledged delegates.

And with a lead of 300+ pledged delegates (2175 to 1875, for instance), getting to 2383 is a mere formality. As I said more than a month ago, after April 26 Sanders needs to consider the potential repercussions of remaining in a race that he absolutely will not win. His campaign was always a message campaign (a message worth expressing, mind you), and it was never realistic for him to become the nominee. As much as his message needs to be expressed, it's time to look at the big picture. Hopefully the Sanders campaign will spark a movement to bring about systemic changes, but he will never become POTUS.

[Stuckinthebush]

97. Yes

Pledged and unpledged will put her way over the top

[bigwillq]

67. It's unlikely that Bernie wins the nomination.

But, anything is possible. It's been a great race; nothing would surprise me at this point. I believe Hillary will win the nomination, and that's cool; I support democracy. But, it should be an entertaining next couple of weeks.

[Betty Karlson]

69. I have underestimated Sanders in the past - I won't do so anymore.

Besides, I loath Clinton and what she stands for - so given that SHE has a snowball's chance in Hell of winning a majority with only pledged delegates, I keep hoping for sanity in the Democratic Party, and superdelegates switching sides, away from "Our Lady of Inevitabilty" to be annointed by another round of 2014 style "Who Else Are Ya Gonna Vote For, you ponywanting hellbound slutty duped complacent sexist racist millennial?"

[mmonk]

70. Yes. If something like the FBI thingy becomes a problem.

[Fred Drum]

72. is there anyone who still thinks hillary is a good thing

if so, please explain

without refering to brain-dead repugs

[peacebird]

78. ^^^this^^^

[Donald Ian Rankin]

85. Yes, most Democrats think that. N.T.

[Stuckinthebush]

98. As evidenced by the voting

It's clear that many more Dems like her over him

[Sky Masterson]

73. Yes

At the convention.
If Bernie has a majority of delegates he will win.
If Hillary flames out he will win.
If not then he will lose.
So I wish people would STFU about it.
If Hillary can't handle an old Jewish socialist then Trump is gonna dismantle her.

[pdsimdars]

74. Here's the question none of you can answer

We're all still waiting for that answer which never comes?
All you can do is divert, deflect and obfuscate. What's your answer?????

[Fred Drum]

79. she supports democrats

rich, generous democrats, who support the rich

did you see the new survivor, its very good

[DrDan]

75. de nile

[That Guy 888]

76. Is there anyone who thinks Clinton isn't chomping at the bit to be a wartime President? n/t

[peacebird]

80. Yes. Bonus question: Is there anyone here who believes Hillary can win in the GE?

[Garrett78]

87. Most definitely.

Clinton will be a heavy favorite to reach 270+ electoral college votes.

[Codeine]

93. Most pundits and the betting markets

seem pretty convinced.

[B Calm]

81. Yes and last time I checked Hillary hasn't won the nomination. Paid trolls

are pretending she has.

[Garrett78]

89. Technically, nobody has won the nomination.

Practically speaking, Clinton wrapped up the nomination on March 15th. After the April 26th primaries are complete, Sanders will likely need 65% (or more) of the remaining delegates in order to win a majority of the pledged delegates. It's fair to say that won't happen.

[merrily]

82. Irrelevant to me. I would do the exact same things whether I thought he would win or lose.

That is what the Clinton campaign, the msm and some DUers don't seem to understand.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280109865

Inasmuch as it is irelevant to me, I don't bother my head obessing about it. I just keep donating and volunteering.

Further Hillary remained in the race in 2008 long after her winning the primary was mathematically IMPOSSIBLE. Not merely unlikely, but impossible. Also well after the Republican candidate was clear. So, I find all this panicky perseveration over when Sanders will drop out as hypocritical as Hillary's campaign has always seemed to me.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

84. For some value of "possible".

Right now, the least unlikely scenario is medical - if Clinton is hit by a bus or accidentally catches fire, Sanders will win.

But it's not likely.

[k8conant]

86. Yes.

The Good Lord willing and the creek don't rise!

Seriously, tgards79, why do you need us to explain the path(s) again?

[Garrett78]

90. Again? I'm yet to see anyone demonstrate a realistic path to 2026 for Sanders.

There are a number of delegate calculators available that are easy to use. But if anyone has used one to demonstrate a realistic path to 2026 for Sanders, I missed it. The only attempt I've seen was dubbed the "Bern Path" and it was not realistic (for instance, it had Sanders winning NY and PA and NJ and CA by anywhere from 8-16 points).

Saying "he can win" is different than demonstrating with delegate math.

[Stuckinthebush]

100. It's a magical path

That includes impossible landslides and ignores the role of super delegates.

[Codeine]

103. Step 3: Profit. nt

[dr60omg]

88. Yes because there are so many variables and if not: I don't care

There are a myriad of moving parts and variables. Including but notwithstanding what will happen with the missing voters in NY (Arizona sadly will keep voters disenfranchised)
There is California and if you have been in California recently well everywhere there are Berne signs, Bernie bumper stickers and Bernie art
California has gotten very progressive
There is the cumulative effect of protesting her (the most recent was in Pennsylvania one of her many home states, I believe Pennsylvania was where she learned to shoot her gun back in her Annie Oakley days of 2008).

There are also ongoing investigations
There are also ongoing corruption scandals



And if he does not get the nomination we are not putting our tails between our legs and going home but we will not be sheepdogged into voting for Clinton.
In other words it goes in the ballot box or onto the streets ... people are fighting for their very right to be and become and she is not someone who has engendered Sanders supporters trust

I am old. I first worked for Senator McGovern when I could not yet vote in high school. I was a YD President but I also know the Democratic party moved way too far to the right for me and after Jimmy Carter lost to Ronnie Raygun I stopped voting for President because the whole system from the local level on up was corrupt and I do not support a rotten infrastructure. I never voted for a Clinton

When GWB became President I held my nose and voted for Kerry who was a heck of a lot more progressive and a much better secretary of state than HRH I worked and donated for President Obama both in 2008 and 2012 although admittedly 2008 seemed to be awash in possibility which once Arne Duncan was appointed Secretary of Ed I realized was illusory ...

Bernie Sanders is the first candidate for the general who brings me profound joy who shares so many of my own views.

BTW Clinton people ought to think about the math (seriously and not the corrupt incorrect delegate math y'all are being fed like so much pablum). Even if she is the democrats candidate for president there is a large percentage of democrats who won't vote or can't just hold their nose and vote.
There is also the largest group of voters in the US now: the Independents who she will not win (as demonstrated in primaries where Independents could vote) ...

Why would I vote for a neoconservative hawk who also happens to be a neoliberal corporate tool? That is not the Democratic party I know

I think since people are literally fighting for their lives they will be taking to the streets and no not like baby-boomer sort of days ... not when the center does not hold.

[Garrett78]

91. Kerry, Obama and Clinton are cut from the same cloth.

An administration consists of much more than a single individual and the way in which it governs is largely a product of happenings outside of its control. The members of an administration don't create systems so much as operate within them (granted, how some operate certainly differs from how others operate, so I'm not suggesting that it doesn't matter who becomes POTUS). This is one reason why it's a bit too simplistic to compare politicians from different eras by suggesting that so-and-so from today is to the 'right' of so-and-so from yesterday.

I see no reason to believe a Clinton Administration would operate much differently than the Obama Administration has (or a Kerry or Gore Administration would have), external and unforeseen factors notwithstanding. Differently than the Bush Admin or a Trump Admin? Absolutely, though probably not as differently as some imagine (one pretty glaring difference would be who they'd nominate for the Supreme Court).

US culture is extremely individualistic and oriented toward the Cult of Personality, which has distorted perceptions of how much power and influence individual actors have.

[One of the 99]

99. Possible - Yes, probable - No

But Bernie needs to stay in the race until the end. He is bringing up very important issues that would otherwise be ignored.

[TrueDemVA]

102. Who cares

Just asking the question is condescending. It's okay that you support Hillary, but until everyone has voted, why all the concern with his supporters still supporting him.

Many of them will never support Hillary, especially with her supporters being so critical of the individuals that support Bernie.

[rjsquirrel]

108. Umm no? It's a trick question!

Can't win at least without a major late surprise.

It's obvious. Such a funny question.