2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTrump has been putting on an act, in the General Election campaign he will become very reasonable
and appealing, and I guarantee the mainstream media will largely forget what a horrible ass he was during the primaries.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a44254/trump-strategy-cynical/
He can appeal to a lot of voters in a way that Hillary will have trouble with; Trump can actually outflank Hillary on the left on some issues (trade, foreign policy, even healthcare).
And what, Hillary will move even more to the right then?
This is a real worry.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)There's a treasure trove of insulting,negative remarks he's made publicly about both of those groups. How does he win a general election without them?
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)To win the presidency, you have to win the independent vote. Sadly, trump will beat Hillary among independents, and that's where the race will be won.
Trump has more than enough ammunition against Hillary, who is highly unpopular among independents, to counter any attacks she might bring.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)... for what they say during primaries to their rabid bases.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Clinton Good, Trump bad.
Dems Good, GOP bad.
Not much else beyond the same old stuff, except a few carefully market tested micro issues.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Gridlock, no big ideas or goals....just hold the fort and let the Wealthy and Powerful to keep buying up government, while the poor and average Americans keep getting the shaft.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)... congressional seats.
The revolution doesn't start in the White house
Armstead
(47,803 posts)More tepid nothingness in positions, and actions that screw the working class and the poor will nhot generate the enthusiasm necessary to change Congress....And if the Congress is just Dems who are also phonies, who cares?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511812440
Sorry but I have seen so many overt and hidden example of that corruption by "centrist Democrats" that range from "tweaks" to legislation and policy that -- surprise -- benefit Big Bidness over the majority of average people to more blatant things like Bank Deregulation, the secretive "free trade" scams...etc.
And these peopel we are told to believe in go through the Golden Door after selling us out.
Just one example. remember Dick Gephardt, former Democratic Leader who drove Democratic policy?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Gephardt#Activities_since_leaving_Congress
Since 2007, Gephardt began serving on the advisory board of the Extend Health insurance company, and then became a member of its board of directors. In 2009, Gephardt advised UnitedHealth Group, one of America's largest private insurers, in waging a strong campaign against a public option for national health care.[31]
Gephardt has also been significantly involved with the pharmaceutical industry. In addition to a large lobbying contract with the Medicines Company,[33] Gephardt serves as chair of the Council for American Medical Innovation (CAMI), formed by and affiliated with PhRMA. In this capacity he hired his own firm to lobby for the organization, to push to extend patents and block generic drugs from the market.[34]
Gephardt has also served as a lobbyist for Boeing.[35] He is a labor consultant for Spirit Aerosystems and sits on its board of directors.[36] In these roles, Gephardt has presided over an aggressive anti-union campaign that has bewildered many of his traditional political allies. In July 2011, Spirit Aerosystems walked out of negotiations with the union that represents its engineering, technical and professional workforce.[37] The union subsequently voted the company's last contract offer receiving a 96.5% rejection vote. The company did not change its contract offer significantly after this rejection and relations with its workforce have been contentious ever since. With negotiations at a standstill, production schedules for 2011 and 2012 are threatened.[38][39]
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Auction 2012: For-Profit Colleges Win When Lobbying Blitz Weakens Regs
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/03/auction-2012-education-for-profit-colleges_n_1251072.html
Beginning in 2010, the administration announced a broad package of new regulations that would crack down on programs that leave students with outsized debt and few career prospects. But a year later, those rules had been substantially weakened, following a $13 million lobbying blitz by the colleges aided by some of Washingtons most powerful Democratic influence peddlers.
Big money won, and students lost, said Amy Wilkins, vice president of government affairs at the Education Trust, a student advocacy group. The really eye-popping profits of the industry allowed them to plow huge money into lobbying against a strong regulation.
The well-coordinated lobbying and public relations campaign, targeted largely at Democrats, was an effort to protect the industrys access to more than $30 billion in federal student loans and grants that fuel the vast majority of its revenues. Some of the largest higher education corporations receive more than 85 percent of their revenue from federal student aid dollars.
Among the all-star cast of lobbyists hired by the industry: former Democratic House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt; Tony Podesta, one of the most prominent lobbyists in Washington and the brother of John Podesta, who led President Barack Obamas transition team; and Penny Lee, a former top adviser to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) who was also a senior staff member for the Democratic National Committee. In total, 14 former members of Congress were hired by the industry to fight regulations that would have cut federal aid to programs in which students fared poorly.
During a hearing on for-profit colleges last year, Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), chairman of the Senate education committee, called the lobbying effort one of the most intense Ive seen in my 32 years here, which tells me that theres a lot of money at stake.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)... tone it will be technically the Speaker of the House who is the 3rd in line for the presidency and can forward laws that are veto proof.
Votes > tone by far
Armstead
(47,803 posts)If Sanders/The Movement he represents actually try that the Democratic Corporate Wall St. Establishment will come down like a hammer just like they did to Sanders in the primary.
The culture of Big Bucks for Public Office as noted in the illustration above, is not going to change as long as this corruption runs the party
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)... Sanders advisers paid little to no attention to 08 election when Obama went to the "deep south" states and grabbed all the delegates he could and held on to a lead.
Sanders on the other hand did nearly the opposite with little to no ties to the demographics in the deep south other than people who have been bashing Obama too.
Those are facts that for the most part are not in dispute
ClintonObama in 08 was no fluke and SandersClinton in 16 proved the base of the DNC has no doubt changed to mostly minority women as a huge chunk.
Once that group is grabbed in the 60 and 70% range in closed primary's its a nearly a lock.
I've seen little to no outreach to the new DNC base especially in the off years.
Sanders has a chance to GOTV in those states with outreach on the local level...
We'll see, I don't think his movement ends with his presidential bid
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)Response to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)
CompanyFirstSergeant This message was self-deleted by its author.
djean111
(14,255 posts)Hillary is just more of the same stuff that is affecting them now. All she realistically offers is more of the same. TPP, student debt, etc. And, I guess, now she is offering the opportunity to give her money. FFS.
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)Who isnt a Republican already supporting him.
onenote
(42,374 posts)And neither will the disabled, women, gays, and the many others he has insulted, ridiculed and threatened during the campaign.
Sorry to burst your bubble.
mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)Huge numbers of voters rely on the Nightly News kind of show for their information. IMHO, many of those people, some of whom will vote, do not believe what the media says about Trump. They will see the spectacle and the three-rings and go with the program.
The reality of Trump is that he is in over his head BUT that he will, if anyone can, come out on top.
He just has to make the best deal with the general U.S. population which is pretty much easier by far when you have no core principles to hold you back.
And he will be running against Hillary whose invulnerability and toughness seem more a media creation than he does.
In truth, she has been unable to put away an old, largely unknown Senator from a state known for... what? He has eaten up her time, her finances and opened the book on her ties to Wall Street.
This does not sound like a definition of a "strong" candidate.
onenote
(42,374 posts)analyzing the situation through agenda-tinted glasses.
A cold-hearted look at the facts is this:
Virtually every mainstream publication has editorialized against Trump. Many of those same papers endorsed Clinton over Sanders. They aren't going to reverse themselves and conclude Trump is the better choice or even that its a toss-up. They will endorse Clinton (again, this is assuming she is the nominee) over Trump (assuming he is the nominee).
As for television, the nightly news shows will show clips of Trump saying whatever Trump says during the GE campaign. But if what he says contradicts what he said during the primary campaign, the media will pounce on his "flip-flopping". In addition the airwaves will be filled with ads showing Trump's most outrageous moments and quoting his repub opponents numerous statements about how dangerous, unqualified, etc he is. Former cabinet officials and military officials from both parties will be shown condemning him and all but begging people not to vote for someone who is scaring the beejubus out of our allies and helping ISIS with recruiting by claiming that he'd carpet-bomb the middle east and target families.
Most significantly, there will be debates and in those debates, Trump will be confronted with the positions he took during the primary: building a wall, rounding up and deporting 11 million immigrants, barring entry to all Muslims, and so on. And he will be stuck with three bad options: stick to his earlier positions, thus undermining whatever "move to the middle" strategy you think he's got; recant his earlier position, reinforcing the flip-flop label and alienating his core supporters who like those crazy positions; or (and this is most likely, imo), attack the questioner and the media in general, which will satisfy his supporters, but will enrage the media, which sticks up for its own (note how the media in general defended Megyn Kelly).
If as many think Clinton is the favorite daughter of the establishment, in the end the media will do what they can to take down Trump and Trumpism.
That, my friend, is an anything but naive assessment of a Trump-Clinton race.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)how terrible they are. The MSM, consistently over the past 25 years, gives undue deference to the GOP. Books have been written about this. The media is not our friend.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,161 posts)If Donald Trump softens his bluster, she will have a real problem as the Democratic nominee.
DetroitSocialist83
(169 posts)On Bill Maher last night, Van Jones said trumps disapproval with African Americans was 70%. Even if trump were to win 15% of them, the election is his.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Count on it.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)She will shellac him at the debates. Projections already show a landslide.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)There's a a lot of African Americans, Latinos, Asians, Republican businesswomen and sensible progressive who will rally to her candidacy. This will more than mitigate the effects of a few disgruntled brogressives who choose to stay home or vote third party.
runaway hero
(835 posts)Not a Landslide. Trump can win in areas Cruz won't. It will not be a walk in the park.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)which to put together negative ads on Trump are endless.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)I wouldn't brag about how many negative ads either side could bring, because they both will not run out of material.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Hillary needs the AA, Hispanic and female vote to lock up the White House. Trump has given her all the ammunition her campaign ads need. You obviously support Trump. Good luck with that.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)trump has more than enough ammunition to kill Hillary's chances with independent voters--the VOTERS WHO WILL DECIDE THE OUTCOME.
I do not support trump and the fact that you don't understand that proves the shallowness of your thinking. I also do not support Hillary, because she is a fatally flawed candidate who will cost us the White House.
But keep your head in the sand.
onenote
(42,374 posts)That suggests that Bernie supporters include lots of people who have no concern about building a wall to keep out Mexican immigrants, no concern about his attacks on Muslims, no concerns about his desire to "carpet bomb" portions of the Middle East, no concern about his desire to go beyond waterboarding and use any and all forms of torture, no concerns about his opposition to same sex marriage, no concerns about his personal attacks on women and disabled individuals, no concerns about his opposition to any increase in the minimum wage, no concerns about his temperament or how he scares the hell out our allies.
I voted for Bernie and want him to stay in the race through the end of the primary season. I know a lot of other Bernie supporters. Not one of them doesn't have most, if not all, of the concerns outlined above.
Else You Are Mad
(3,040 posts)Trade policies and war -- killing terrorists families excluded. All the angry hyperbole is just to win the angry Tea Party/white trash. If/when Hillary shifts to the center right, he will out flank her on the left in other ways too. He will put up a left center facade to try to win the disheartened Sanders voters. She is in big trouble -- and that is really scary because I do not want a Trump presidency.
onenote
(42,374 posts)Please. Get real.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)Trump has been putting on an act, in the General Election campaign he will become very reasonable.
!) There is tape
2) The normal Trump is boring as fuck.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)But if he is really going to be statesman like then he can't insult people and will have to discuss the issues.
Normal Trump is boring Trump.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)the media will do the rest, as with George W. Bush
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)He has the policy grasp of a sixth grader.
People come to see him because he's an great showman. When he tries to be a statesman he's boring as fuck.
artyteacher
(598 posts)I think this could be an opening to dump him at the convention.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Trump just went "all in" on the republican side. That was his strategy to wrest the nomination from the established pols. He can soften his rhetoric and downplay his hyperbole, while at the same time defending his stands. His positions aren't that different from the mainstream republican base. He just was the only one who said that stuff out loud. That's why the establishment didn't like him.
He will argue it wasn't "lies"--he still believes those things, but it was theatrics to stand out in the field of candidates. Plus, the general public has short memories.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)people expect.
Squinch
(50,773 posts)Squinch
(50,773 posts)We can't afford to waste any more time on Sanders.
Bleacher Creature
(11,235 posts)There's no chance in hell Trump will be able to undo most of the damage he's already done.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Hillary's only chance in that situation is convincing them that trump is dangerous and not to be trusted with power. She's the sane alternative, even if you don't like her.
trump knows that. Just like Hillary will "pivot" in the GE campaign, trump will as well. They both did and said what they had to in order to win their party's primaries. Hillary had to pretend to be progressive. Trump had to pretend to be a fire breathing nativist. Their bases necessitated that. They are both shrewd politicians.
That was then. Trump will still be aggressive in his personal attacks, but will tone down his rhetoric. Hillary will be in some trouble then.
onenote
(42,374 posts)Having gone all in during the primary season he cannot recant his positions. He will be beaten up mercilessly if during a debate he doesn't stick to his primary positions -- his own supporters will freak out if he softens up. Most likely he'll return to form and simply attack the media, and if there is a sure-fire way to make sure the media is out to stop you, it's by attacking them.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Perhaps someday, we will be able to tap into a massive database of video's tweets, interviews, and media comments, but it is not this day.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)having video is one thing, getting the media to show it, or having people watch it, is another.
And don't forget what short memories people have.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Also, I do not think that Women, Blacks, Latino's, and other voting blocks will suffer a terrible case of amnesia once the nominee is decided.
The sudden onset of mass amnesia is specious, at best.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)The primaries and Sanders have been a lovefest compared with the Epic Shitstorm that will hit Perpetual Victim Hillary in the general, REGARDLESS of who the TeapubliKKKans nominate. You ain't seen nothin' yet.
And since her and her surrogates have managed to piss us on the left off to the point where we won't be there for her or any of the corporate lackey establishment crowd that jammed her down our throats....
... you're own your own.
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)she's going to need to 100% black and hispanic votes, and feminists, which will bring out all sorts of ugly on the other side.
I'm staying above the fray on that.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)and withdraw, especially if the 'rumors' about the friendship between him and Bill are true
Dem2
(8,166 posts)24/7
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Califonz
(465 posts)Insult humor at its most politically incorrect. But yes, like Rickles, Trump will start behaving once he realizes he just might have a chance to be president if he stops clowning.