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Sun Oct 28, 2012, 02:47 PM

Nate Silver's analysis re: the controversial Ohio poll, indicating a tied race

The most consequential polls of the day were probably in Ohio and Virginia.

The Ohio poll was a good one for Mr. Romney. The survey, conducted by the University of Cincinnati for a consortium of Ohio newspapers, showed the tied race, 49-49, with almost no undecided voters left. The same survey had given Mr. Obama a 5-point advantage before the Denver debate.

Some liberals have critiqued the Ohio poll for being out of date — it was in the field between Oct. 18 and Oct. 23, meaning that some of its interviews were conducted before the final presidential debate in Florida.

I think this criticism is probably overdone. There is little evidence that the race has changed all that much since the final debate; the FiveThirtyEight model finds that Mr. Obama has perhaps gained half a percentage point nationally since then, but probably not much more than that.

And apart from the timing, the poll has a lot going for it: it has a good track record and collected a reasonably large sample size, meaning that it gets a lot of weight in the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

But the poll should not be used to imply that the race is tightening further in Ohio. There have been 12 other polls of the state that also conducted at least some interviews after the Florida debate, and they showed Mr. Obama up by two points there on average, which is about where the FiveThirtyEight forecast now shows the state. If a candidate holds a two-point lead in a state, it is normal for some polls to show him tied or trailing by a point or so instead in contrast to others that might put him four or five points up.

That is pretty much what we see in Ohio right now, with the edge in the polling average remaining with Mr. Obama. The new poll reduced his chances of winning the state to 73 percent from 76 percent in the forecast.


More: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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Reply Nate Silver's analysis re: the controversial Ohio poll, indicating a tied race (Original post)
mzmolly Oct 2012 OP
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #1
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #2
graham4anything Oct 2012 #3
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #4
graham4anything Oct 2012 #6
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #7
graham4anything Oct 2012 #9
WeekendWarrior Oct 2012 #12
Grateful for Hope Oct 2012 #5
ProSense Oct 2012 #8
mzmolly Oct 2012 #10
ProSense Oct 2012 #11

Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 02:51 PM

1. LOL

But the poll should not be used to imply that the race is tightening further in Ohio.


...

Over all, the stronger poll in Ohio for Mr. Romney slightly outweighed the poorer one for him in Virginia. His chances of winning the Electoral College inched up to 26.4 percent from 25.6 percent in Friday’s forecast.


This is why Nate Silver does nothing for me. Yes, Romney's advantage barely ticked up ... but again, inconsistencies from Silver.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 02:53 PM

2. Exactly, assuming all polls are good.

 

This is a good poll, but Rasmussen etc, notsomuch.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 02:54 PM

3. the hidden fact 73 to 27 is a freakin' landslide in any and all political, sport, betting odds

 

73 to 27

If it were a football game, that means (and as NO Obama voter is changing sides) the other team would have to score in the last minute of the game about 6 tds.

hell, the other team don't even get the ball 6 times to have 6 tds.

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 03:01 PM

4. 73-27 is more akin to leading by 7-10 points at the end of 3rd quarter.

 

We won't see the scoreboard until Nov. 6.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 03:08 PM

6. no its not. another debbie downer philosophy. There are only 60-90 seconds left.

 

and this big storm is actually a real godsend.
the election will be off the news for 3 days and while my electricity will be off, the interesting thing is, if there are massive blackouts, nobody can watch Fox so there is no ball possession for Mitt/Glove

it might though be a baseball game with a lead of 10 runs.

more akin to the situation is a bowling match, where the leader has 8 strikes in a row,balls left (and already has 210 in the can if he were to gutter the 9th and 10th
and the one behind is 60 down after finishing the 9th frame, and only can get 30 more/50 more

this race is as finished as the dem 2008 primary was a few weeks after Iowa,(except that one candidate, Hillary45, kept it going while statistically impossible for her to have gotten the delegates.)

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 03:15 PM

7. Polls are not points on the board.

 

Only votes are.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 03:23 PM

9. and tens of millions already voted, therefore these polls don't even count those

 

same debbie downer/sad sam like after the rope-a-dope Obama won the first debate with, but the downers allowed the spin to turn it around

it's a shame some cannot accept victory is here.

(same in 2008 when Hillary kept it going, but she had ZERO mathematical chances to win and all it did was waste time and money.)

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 04:04 PM

12. Best analogy yet

Hillary hanging on despite the inevitable.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 03:08 PM

5. Thanks for posting this.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 03:15 PM

8. It's great that the President

is still up big despite these questionable polls (http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251184940).

Nate:

Mason-Dixon is a strong polling firm, but their results have been more Republican-leaning than the consensus in Minnesota and most other states.

Always.

Mason-Dixon is notoriously pro-Republican: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1533763

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Response to ProSense (Reply #8)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 03:23 PM

10. Mason dixon showed McSame winning Ohio in 08, by 2 points.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #10)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 04:01 PM

11. Yup, pro Republican. Thanks n/t

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