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Sun May 1, 2016, 02:18 PM

218

Unless I got my math wrong that's how many delegates Clinton needs to lock the nomination.

Sanders needs 1026 to do the same.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

There are 1241 delegates (including unpledged super delegates) remaining.

In 2008 super delegates defected from Clinton to Obama. That is what shifted the balance enough to give the nomination to Obama.

Does Sanders campaign have a plan to woo those delegates away from Clinton?

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Arrow 55 replies Author Time Post
Reply 218 (Original post)
Buzz cook May 2016 OP
aikoaiko May 2016 #1
Buzz cook May 2016 #3
litlbilly May 2016 #9
Buzz Clik May 2016 #19
Demsrule86 May 2016 #24
aikoaiko May 2016 #10
anigbrowl May 2016 #14
SFnomad May 2016 #2
Buzz cook May 2016 #4
SFnomad May 2016 #5
Buzz cook May 2016 #15
Spacedog1973 May 2016 #6
Kip Humphrey May 2016 #7
Buzz cook May 2016 #11
Tiggeroshii May 2016 #22
PowerToThePeople May 2016 #8
Buzz cook May 2016 #12
PowerToThePeople May 2016 #13
Buzz cook May 2016 #17
sadoldgirl May 2016 #16
Buzz cook May 2016 #20
Tiggeroshii May 2016 #18
Buzz cook May 2016 #33
Tiggeroshii May 2016 #34
Buzz cook May 2016 #37
Tiggeroshii May 2016 #41
Buzz cook May 2016 #48
Tiggeroshii May 2016 #54
Land of Enchantment May 2016 #21
Buzz cook May 2016 #23
Tiggeroshii May 2016 #44
NurseJackie May 2016 #25
BootinUp May 2016 #26
lancer78 May 2016 #28
BootinUp May 2016 #29
lancer78 May 2016 #30
BootinUp May 2016 #31
lancer78 May 2016 #32
fun n serious May 2016 #43
lancer78 May 2016 #27
Buzz cook May 2016 #35
morningfog May 2016 #36
Buzz cook May 2016 #38
morningfog May 2016 #39
Buzz cook May 2016 #42
morningfog May 2016 #45
Buzz cook May 2016 #49
morningfog May 2016 #50
Tiggeroshii May 2016 #53
Buzz cook May 2016 #55
pdsimdars May 2016 #40
IamMab May 2016 #47
IamMab May 2016 #46
Buzz cook May 2016 #51
IamMab May 2016 #52

Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:19 PM

1. Im ok with Bernie fighting for every vote and delagate even if it were impossible to win.


Go Bernie.

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Response to aikoaiko (Reply #1)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:24 PM

3. Ok, but that's not my question

Bernie is welcome to fight for everything he can get. But does he have a specific plan in place to do what Obama did in 2008 by getting super delegates to defect?

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #3)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:32 PM

9. If hes ahead, even by one pledged delagate at the convention, the supers have to get behind him.

 

If they don't, there will surely be a shitstorm like we've never seen before.

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Response to litlbilly (Reply #9)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:44 PM

19. Superdelegates are not just other delegates. They are under no such obligation.

 

They are in place to help ensure that unelectable candidates are not nominated.

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Response to litlbilly (Reply #9)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:25 PM

24. He won't be ahead

This is why he is talking up polls and such...he knows he won't be ahead. you think it is ethical to lost the primary and ask to be declared the winner?

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #3)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:36 PM

10. I don't think anyone on DU would know what his strategy is.

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Response to aikoaiko (Reply #1)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:39 PM

14. What does this have to do with the OP?

 

You know, this sort of thing is a reason your candidate's losing - ask a simple question, get unresponsive cheerleading in return.

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:22 PM

2. Obama did have a majority of pledeged delegates too ... something that Secretary Clinton

 

will also have soon enough. A majority of pledged delegates and a supermajority of Superdelegate commitments will be all that Secretary Clinton needs to lock the nomination.

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Response to SFnomad (Reply #2)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:28 PM

4. Correct me if I'm wrong

But the race in 2008 was much closer than now in 2016. iirc the defection of super delegates started before Obama had a clear lead.

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #4)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:30 PM

5. No, Obama had a lead early on, I believe after Super Tuesday ... and never gave it up.

 

But you're correct, it was much closer ... I don't think Clinton was ever more than 150 pledged delegates away from Obama.

On Edit ... I just looked it up, it wasn't Super Tuesday (Clinton had a very small lead after that) ... it was the string of 11 wins Obama had right after that in mid-February that gave him the lead, which he never lost.

On Edit 2 ... also remember 2008 was very front loaded when it came to primaries. Super Tuesday had 22 states and American Samoa ... we were nearly 1/2 way done at that point.

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Response to SFnomad (Reply #5)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:40 PM

15. I thought wrong then.

My memory was that Clinton held a slim lead till March.

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:30 PM

6. I think we've seen how Barnie Fans

attempt to 'woo' superdelegates away from Clinton. And it isn't pretty

v

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:31 PM

7. Delegates Won: 4051 Hillary: 1645 Bernie: 1318 (ref: your source)

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Response to Kip Humphrey (Reply #7)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:37 PM

11. Nope 2165 to 1357

You forgot to add the super delegates which is the point of this thread.

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #11)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:50 PM

22. Super delegates have never voted for the loser of the pledged delegates.

 

Supers will vote for whoever wins the pledged delegates. If she loses the pledged delegates, she will absolutely lose the majority of her super delegates. So effectively only pledged delegates count right now, regardless of what an online comedy site tried to tell you.

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:32 PM

8. Another HRC math expert

 

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Response to PowerToThePeople (Reply #8)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:38 PM

12. I invite you to explain

How Bernie plans to capture some super delegates

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #12)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:39 PM

13. By winning the pledged.

 

This race is not over.

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Response to PowerToThePeople (Reply #13)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:42 PM

17. Yes I concede that

One of the ways Bernie can win is by getting Clinton super delegates to defect. How does he do that?

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:40 PM

16. And I give you a 219 answer:

That is the number needed in the house for
impeachment, if I remember correctly from
the last Clinton presidency.

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Response to sadoldgirl (Reply #16)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:44 PM

20. I do not doubt that if republicans control the house

they will try to impeach any democratic president.

So how does Bernie plan to be the one that gets impeached?

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:43 PM

18. No. What shifted the balance of supers was Obama getting more pledged delegates

 

If he didn't have more pledged then he wouldn't have had more supers. Bernie only needs about 600 delegates to reach the 2026 needed for the bare majority. He will then have 2 months till the convention to win over superdelegates.

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #18)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:12 PM

33. In 2008

Obama picked up unpledged superdelegate with the lead. But he also got defectors from Clinton's campaign.

Clinton still had 257 superdelegates when she released them at the convention.

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #33)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:19 PM

34. Most of those 257 were lobbyists not accountable to anybody

 

The others had a seat or public perception to hold onto.

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #34)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:29 PM

37. Do you have a citarion for that claim?nt

nt

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #37)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:36 PM

41. This. And also even Bill Clinton has pledged to support the winner of the pledged delegates.

 

...which he did in 2008. So yes, while it is possible -the scenario you are giving, it is far more unlikely than pretty much anything else.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2008

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #41)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:48 PM

48. I looked through the list

Didn't see any lobbyists.

If as you say most were lobbyists then they should be easy to spot. That is what needs a citation.

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #48)

Mon May 2, 2016, 01:02 PM

54. Only 44.5 of them were actually party leaders or elected

 

The rest were not. It doesn't take a stretch of reasoning or intense critical thinking to figure the rest out =)

On edit: While lobbyists (like Howard Dean now) should be required to carry big signs and have an asterisk next to their name in every article entry, unfortunately they do not. But again, it doesn't take a huge stretch of reasoning to connect with why some superdelegates still vote for a candidate who has dropped out entirely of the race. Money can do that.

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 02:46 PM

21. Here. Oh my Dogs, yet another thread on the SD's....

It will be interesting to see what comes of the DoJ, FBI and Clinton Foundation 'investigations'. The SD's WILL be affected by a negative outcome of any of them....







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Response to Land of Enchantment (Reply #21)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:19 PM

23. So Bernies plan

Is to do nothing and hope the Email investigation bears fruit?

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #23)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:41 PM

44. Record numbers crowds, still beating Clinton in Fundraising, remaining states heavily favored to him

 

...Yep he's "doing nothing"

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:27 PM

25. Harassing phone calls? Nasty tweets?

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:29 PM

26. The only reason SD's would defect is if Bernie overtakes her in pledged del. Which ain't happenin

This whole discussion by the Bernie camp about Super Delegates is obfuscation so he can continue to asking for money and just in general be a trouble maker. He has no chance in heil of getting enough SDs to switch.

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Response to BootinUp (Reply #26)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:33 PM

28. Or something

 

comes out against Hillary or Bill before the convention. That is the purpose of the super delegates, to make sure we are not stuck with a toxic candidate. I bet the Republicans wished they had super delegates right about now.

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Response to lancer78 (Reply #28)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:35 PM

29. Even if I bought that reason, it shouldn't stop Bernie from bowing out because he lost!

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Response to BootinUp (Reply #29)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:50 PM

30. I wouldn't bow out

 

Not with the e-mail issue still floating out there. You never know when life will throw a curveball. I bet on February 12th, 2016, the conservatives were happy with the Supreme court and the next day everything changed.

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Response to lancer78 (Reply #30)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:58 PM

31. Sanders is just in this for the money at this point.

And any email excuse is, based on all available information, nothing but a sideshow. The emails being re-classified is a non-story, the private server is a non-issue because it broke no existing law, and was similar to previous Sec. of State setup. Its a witchhunt created by the repukes that Sanders is now feeding fuel to.

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Response to BootinUp (Reply #31)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:28 AM

32. I think its more

 

about forcing platform concessions, and trying to get HRC more to the left on fiscal issues.

And about the e-mail, you are probably right. But, with the years and ties with the Clintons, there is always a chance something might come up.

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Response to lancer78 (Reply #28)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:40 PM

43. The republicans do not need supers

 

They can nominate whoever they want if it goes to 2nd ballot.

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Sun May 1, 2016, 11:32 PM

27. Since the supers

 

are not locked in until they vote, HRC needs 717 delegates to win. Bernie needs 1024. These are CNN numbers.

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:24 PM

35. That's not how it worked in 2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Obama winning delegate count included superdelegates.

2,118 Needed to Win Obama had 1766.5 regular delegates and 463 supers for a total of 2229.5.

It was not till Clinton released her delegates that Obama had enough regular delegates to win.

If you remember Obama would have been declared the winner before he got Clinton's delegates. He would have won because of his superdelegate lead.

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:26 PM

36. You have it wrong. She needs 361 to secure a majority of the pledged delegates.

 

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Response to morningfog (Reply #36)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:32 PM

38. Your apple doesn't

compare to my orange.

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #38)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:32 PM

39. Your orange is wrong.

 

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Response to morningfog (Reply #39)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:40 PM

42. A simple majority doesn't win the nomination.

If Sanders or Clinton entered the convention with "just" a simple majority of regular delegates, then it would be the superdelegates that decided the nomination. Just as now with Clinton having a plurality of regular delegates and a lead in super delegates.

You have a different number but the result is the same, the winner is decided by superdelegates.

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #42)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:43 PM

45. Yes. On that I agree. Super delegates will push the nominee over the line.

 

Neither will reach 2,383 through pledged delegates alone. But, there is no securing super delegates until the convention vote.

It is assumed that the pledged majority winner will be the nominee through super support. So our 218 number is meaningless. The number that matters is 2,026 and HIllary needs 361 to get there.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #45)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:52 PM

49. It ispossible that Clinton will

reach 2383 in regular delegates before the convention. She'd have to get slightly less than 60% which is not out of reach.

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #49)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:55 PM

50. SHe'd need 71% of the remaining PDs to secure through PDs alone, ain't gonna happen.

 

She has 1,665. Needs 718 more. There are 1,016 PDs left. In other words, 71%.

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #42)

Mon May 2, 2016, 01:00 PM

53. "The winner is decided by superdelegates"

 

Which is heavily influenced by pledged delegates. Out of the 209 supers that still voted for Clinton after she dropped out (Which either candidate is likely to do if they lose enough pledged delegates), only 44.5 of them were party leaders or elected officials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2008

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Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #53)

Mon May 2, 2016, 01:18 PM

55. And how do you make the leap to lobbyist?

I have seriously looked at that list and I don't see lobbyists as one of the identifiers.

There is one person listed as "labor Leader" I suppose that could be a lobbyist. But he voted for Obama.

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:34 PM

40. You can't count the super deletages in the count, they don't matter until the convention

 

so adding them in at this time is misleading, if not downright dishonest.

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Response to pdsimdars (Reply #40)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:46 PM

47. Why? The total number needed for the nomination, 2383, includes super-delegates.

 

They can be counted at any point after they publicly pledge their support, as hundreds have done already for Clinton.

It's the argument that the nomination must be won completely without super-delegates that is "misleading" and "dishonest." Nowhere in the rulebook does it say that the nominee must have 2383 pledged delegates. It's 2383 of ANY combination of delegates, pledged or super.

If you want to make a career out of moving goalposts, contact the NFL, maybe.

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Response to Buzz cook (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:43 PM

46. Thanks for the thread!

 

I finally get a chance to use this picture!

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Response to IamMab (Reply #46)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:55 PM

51. Did you know

Your name is almost a palindrome? Well done.

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #51)

Mon May 2, 2016, 12:59 PM

52. It's funny that you mention that...

 

...because my RL last name actually is a palindrome. I like to joke with people, "It only has 3 letters," and then watch them figure out that it's 3 letters 2x each.

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