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Mon May 2, 2016, 09:29 PM

 

I predict that tomorrow in Indiana, Hillary will do substantially better ...

... than the exit polls indicate she should.

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Reply I predict that tomorrow in Indiana, Hillary will do substantially better ... (Original post)
Scuba May 2016 OP
LineReply .
Dr Hobbitstein May 2016 #1
Ed Suspicious May 2016 #8
Buzz Clik May 2016 #11
Fuddnik May 2016 #28
Buzz Clik May 2016 #10
IamMab May 2016 #38
SFnomad May 2016 #2
Scuba May 2016 #3
Renew Deal May 2016 #17
LiberalFighter May 2016 #30
tabasco May 2016 #56
GusBob May 2016 #19
Scuba May 2016 #20
Dr Hobbitstein May 2016 #39
Scuba May 2016 #40
Dr Hobbitstein May 2016 #42
Scuba May 2016 #43
Dr Hobbitstein May 2016 #46
Scuba May 2016 #49
Dr Hobbitstein May 2016 #50
Scuba May 2016 #51
Dr Hobbitstein May 2016 #52
Scuba May 2016 #53
Dr Hobbitstein May 2016 #54
Scuba May 2016 #58
Dr Hobbitstein May 2016 #59
rjsquirrel May 2016 #26
MissDeeds May 2016 #4
onehandle May 2016 #5
joshcryer May 2016 #6
KingFlorez May 2016 #7
rjsquirrel May 2016 #12
LiberalFighter May 2016 #31
rjsquirrel May 2016 #34
Buzz Clik May 2016 #9
alcibiades_mystery May 2016 #27
rjsquirrel May 2016 #35
Buzz Clik May 2016 #36
rjsquirrel May 2016 #37
JoePhilly May 2016 #63
Cali_Democrat May 2016 #13
Garrett78 May 2016 #14
VulgarPoet May 2016 #29
Garrett78 May 2016 #62
seabeyond May 2016 #15
Renew Deal May 2016 #16
LiberalFighter May 2016 #33
Kip Humphrey May 2016 #18
Nye Bevan May 2016 #21
Scuba May 2016 #24
obamanut2012 May 2016 #48
LexVegas May 2016 #22
madokie May 2016 #23
Maru Kitteh May 2016 #25
Zynx May 2016 #32
Scuba May 2016 #41
Joob May 2016 #44
Nonhlanhla May 2016 #45
Joob May 2016 #47
floriduck May 2016 #55
FlatBaroque May 2016 #57
dana_b May 2016 #61
dana_b May 2016 #60

Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 09:32 PM

1. .

 

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Response to Dr Hobbitstein (Reply #1)

Mon May 2, 2016, 09:43 PM

8. self portrait?

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Response to Ed Suspicious (Reply #8)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:02 PM

11. -1 for being totally unoriginal and juvenile.

 

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Response to Ed Suspicious (Reply #8)

Tue May 3, 2016, 07:33 AM

28. Protecting his ass, in case Bernie puts his hand on it.

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Response to Dr Hobbitstein (Reply #1)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:02 PM

10. +1

 

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Response to Dr Hobbitstein (Reply #1)


Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 09:35 PM

2. So you're already test driving conspiracies on why BS is going to lose tomorrow? n/t

 

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Response to SFnomad (Reply #2)

Mon May 2, 2016, 09:37 PM

3. Nope, just a student of history ...

 

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511819256

Arkansas: 6.7 in favor of Clinton (official count compared to exit polls)
Alabama: 15.7 in favor of Clinton
Tennessee: 8.8 in favor of Clinton
Virginia: 4.5 in favor of Clinton
Georgia: 12.4 in favor of Clinton
Texas: 9.9 in favor of Clinton
Massachusetts: 7.8 in favor of Clinton
Oklahoma: 6.8 in favor of Sanders
Vermont: 0.9 in favor of Clinton
Mississippi: 10.4 in favor of Clinton
Michigan: 4.8 in favor of Clinton
Ohio: 10.2 in favor of Clinton
Florida: 3.2 in favor of Clinton
North Carolina: 1.8 in favor of Clinton
Illinois: 4.2 in favor of Clinton
Missouri: 4.0 in favor of Clinton
Wisconsin: 13.8 in favor of Clinton
New York: 12.0 in favor of Clinton

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Response to Scuba (Reply #3)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:51 PM

17. That's because Hillary's supporters typically vote in the evening after work.

But the polls close in IN at 6PM.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #17)

Tue May 3, 2016, 07:46 AM

30. Local time. Indiana has two time zones.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #17)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:31 AM

56. Link for your claim that "Hillary's supporters typically vote in the evening after work.?"

 

Or are you just making stuff up?

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Response to Scuba (Reply #3)

Mon May 2, 2016, 11:03 PM

19. Are those the same numbers that Tim Robbins tried to use?

From some comedian on reddit?

That has been totally debunked

EDIT: yep they are the same made up bullshit. Raw story debunked it

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Response to GusBob (Reply #19)

Tue May 3, 2016, 05:44 AM

20. I've never seen any debunking of these numbers. Provide a link or edit or ...

 

.... some cynic here might think you're just making shit up.

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Response to Dr Hobbitstein (Reply #39)

Tue May 3, 2016, 08:18 AM

40. Interesting that the very first example in this "debunking" links to a CNN poll that does not ...

 

... support what the article claims it does.

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/04/on-tim-robbins-election-fraud-and-how-nonsense-spreads-around-the-internet/

In Massachusetts, for example, CNN reported that exit polls showed Clinton winning by 2 points, which is very close to her 1.4 percent margin in the final results.



Yet the link shows no such thing!!!




That's some debunking!!!




..

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Response to Scuba (Reply #40)

Tue May 3, 2016, 08:32 AM

42. The data is there...

 

You just need to do the math.

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Response to Dr Hobbitstein (Reply #42)

Tue May 3, 2016, 08:49 AM

43. No, the data is not there.

 

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Response to Scuba (Reply #43)

Tue May 3, 2016, 08:56 AM

46. It most certainly is.

 

There were 1,408 respondents. 42% were men, 58% were women.
41% of the men voted for HRC, 1% didn't respond, and 58% for Bernie.
57% of the women voted for HRC, 1% was undecided, and 42% for Bernie.

The data is there. That was all from the first demographic (which, by far, is the easiest one to equate). You just have to do the math.

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ma/Dem

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Response to Dr Hobbitstein (Reply #46)

Tue May 3, 2016, 09:42 AM

49. You're looking at adjusted exit polls.

 

Here's a link showing the exit polls before they were adjusted ...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=0

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Response to Scuba (Reply #49)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:15 AM

50. Your "unadjusted exit polls" are debunked in the RawStory article I posted.

 

Via email, I asked Camp for his source, and he pointed me to a post on Reddit by a user who goes by the handle “turn-trout.” Turn-trout, who didn’t respond to a message seeking comment, claims that these are unadjusted exit polls, and links to a spreadsheet purportedly showing wide discrepancies between the raw data and the final results.

The spreadsheet was created by Richard Charnin, who writes a blog devoted to “JFK conspiracy and systemic election fraud analysis.” Charnin’s spreadsheet appears to be the basis of a broad swath of viral Internet content alleging widespread election theft during the 2016 primaries, including the work of Free Press editors Harvey Wasserman and Bob Fitrakis. Charnin seems to think that exit polls can reveal that virtually all our elections have been rigged, writing, “in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the exit polls by 52-42%; they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% discrepancy.”


I know this isn't your first primary. Why do you act like it is?

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Response to Dr Hobbitstein (Reply #50)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:17 AM

51. No, they're not debunked in the rawstory article.

 

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Response to Scuba (Reply #51)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:19 AM

52. But they are.

 

Via email, I asked Camp for his source, and he pointed me to a post on Reddit by a user who goes by the handle “turn-trout.” Turn-trout, who didn’t respond to a message seeking comment, claims that these are unadjusted exit polls, and links to a spreadsheet purportedly showing wide discrepancies between the raw data and the final results.

The spreadsheet was created by Richard Charnin, who writes a blog devoted to “JFK conspiracy and systemic election fraud analysis.” Charnin’s spreadsheet appears to be the basis of a broad swath of viral Internet content alleging widespread election theft during the 2016 primaries, including the work of Free Press editors Harvey Wasserman and Bob Fitrakis. Charnin seems to think that exit polls can reveal that virtually all our elections have been rigged, writing, “in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the exit polls by 52-42%; they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% discrepancy.”

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Response to Dr Hobbitstein (Reply #52)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:20 AM

53. That does not begin to debunk the unadjusted totals.

 

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Response to Scuba (Reply #53)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:24 AM

54. The totals were written by a conspiracy theorist.

 

That's what that is saying.

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Response to Dr Hobbitstein (Reply #54)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:40 AM

58. Ad hominem.

 

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Response to Scuba (Reply #58)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:42 AM

59. They are not from a legitimate source is what I'm saying.

 

And, let's be honest. The dude is a conspiracy theorist.

Your numbers HAVE been debunked. You just refuse to see it. I said it before. I KNOW this isn't your first primary. Why are you acting like it is?

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Response to GusBob (Reply #19)


Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 09:39 PM

4. Yup

 

Funny how that works, isn't it?

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 09:39 PM

5. Amen!

Thank you for your hope for our nominee!

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 09:40 PM

6. She will do better due to late minute band wagoning.

People don't want to vote for the loser.

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 09:42 PM

7. I predict that Clinton will win because Indianapolis and Gary will vote heavily in her favor

She wins all the liberal areas and that is key to winning the Democratic primary.

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Response to KingFlorez (Reply #7)


Response to rjsquirrel (Reply #12)

Tue May 3, 2016, 07:47 AM

31. It is exam week in Indiana this week.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #31)


Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:00 PM

9. I predict that regardless of the outcome, Sanders's people will claim, "Foul!"

 

I'm not a genius. They do it every time.

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Response to Buzz Clik (Reply #9)

Tue May 3, 2016, 06:57 AM

27. Sanders has never lost an election

 

If he loses, the election is not legitimate, and therefore not an election. QED!

QED, I say!

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Response to Buzz Clik (Reply #9)


Response to rjsquirrel (Reply #35)

Tue May 3, 2016, 07:52 AM

36. ..

 



definitely feeling the math.

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Response to Buzz Clik (Reply #36)


Response to Buzz Clik (Reply #9)

Tue May 3, 2016, 11:51 AM

63. + 1

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:43 PM

13. Preemptive whining? nt

 

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:45 PM

14. "Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls"

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #14)

Tue May 3, 2016, 07:44 AM

29. "One Reason Why You Should Disregard Nate Silver"

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Response to VulgarPoet (Reply #29)

Tue May 3, 2016, 11:49 AM

62. Exit polls are historically unreliable for numerous reasons.

That's the issue at hand.

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:46 PM

15. Ya, Sanders people have gotten ahead of that 8 ball cry foul before it happens instead of

 

Waiting for their loss. Only in the states they lose, imagine that. Never happens if they win, no. Only when losing!

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:50 PM

16. Most of Hillary's vote typically comes in at night after people get out of work.

So the exit polls will probably be close because of no late vote. Also, I have to wonder if the lack of late voting will keep her numbers down. But I think most IN voters already know how to deal with those issues.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #16)

Tue May 3, 2016, 07:47 AM

33. Higher than usual early voting in Indiana.

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Mon May 2, 2016, 10:56 PM

18. Oh, that's too easy a prediction to make.

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 06:22 AM

21. Yep. I understand that DWS had a meeting yesterday with the Koch Brothers and the head of Diebold

to decide what today's vote counts should be in every precinct.

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Response to Nye Bevan (Reply #21)

Tue May 3, 2016, 06:25 AM

24. That wouldn't surprise me in the least.

 

Except for the Diebold part. They're called something else now.

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Response to Nye Bevan (Reply #21)

Tue May 3, 2016, 09:09 AM

48. lolz

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 06:23 AM

22. Don't lose mad...just lose. nt

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 06:24 AM

23. You know it

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 06:52 AM

25. Narratives can't write themselves, yes?

Nice work.

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 07:47 AM

32. It's more the case that the exit polls are out of line with pre-election polling due to our exit

polls being run incompetently and being poorly funded so as not to have proper sampling techniques. Just because one runs an exit poll doesn't mean it's being done well.

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Response to Zynx (Reply #32)

Tue May 3, 2016, 08:21 AM

41. No, the problem is exit polls not supporting vote counts.

 

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 08:54 AM

44. I predict Bernie Winning by a Landslide

Just blew your mind

You're welcome, any one else want some predictions? I used to work at a fortune cookie shop and I miss it I guess.

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Response to Joob (Reply #44)

Tue May 3, 2016, 08:56 AM

45. I suspect most fortune cookies are more accurate

than your prediction, though!

I love fortune cookie predictions.

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Response to Nonhlanhla (Reply #45)

Tue May 3, 2016, 09:00 AM

47. I usually hold onto them... waiting.

until I tear them up in frustration


And I predicted a WA win by uuh I think it was 86%. So yeah! I'm off a little. This shit is hard, takes years of practice.

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:29 AM

55. Sort of like Chicago and the rest of Illinois? God love those machines. nm

 

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:37 AM

57. I wonder if there is a worthwhile comment in the 52 missing replies.

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Response to FlatBaroque (Reply #57)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:46 AM

61. doubt it

Including yours I can see 12 of them.

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Response to Scuba (Original post)

Tue May 3, 2016, 10:45 AM

60. yeah, it's funny how that ALWAYS works now for the more

conservative person. Before we started voting on these un-democratic hackers' dream machines, exit polls were on point. Now we get "exit polls are not the standard and are usually wrong". No, they aren't in places that are truly Democratic - like in Australia, much of Europe. Exit polls are the standard for predicting who will win. And prior to 2000 (or 1996?) when their use became widespread, exit polls were always right in the USA too.

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