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Thu May 5, 2016, 07:32 PM

Hillary is beloved regionally and a close 2nd choice outside her region. How to broaden her appeal

In the 13 states of the Old South, Hillary is beloved. She has swept 12 of the 13 Old South states (Kentucky hasn't voted yet).

Hillary is not the favorite in the 47 states outside the Deep South.

Give Hillary credit where credit is due for big wins in 12 of those 13 states which are a good match for her conservative/centrist/Christian-church-going ideology and persona (they are also a noticeably bad match for a Jewish progressive candidate from New York). That is a real victory for Hillary that counts for about 20% of the country and no one should doubt Hillary's appeal in those Old South states.

But if Hillary was as well liked outside this region as she is loved within her region, the race would have ended long ago. We cannot forget to look at how Hillary does outside of the 13 states of the Deep South:


SANDERS HAS WON 18 STATES
New Hampshire
Colorado
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Vermon
Kansas
Nebraska
Maine
Michigan
Idaho
Utah
Alaska
Hawaii
Washington
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Rhode Island
Indiana

HILLARY HAS WON 12 STATES
Iowa
Nevada
Massachusetts
Illinois
Missouri
Ohio
Arizona
New York
Connecticut
Delaware
Maryland
Pennsylvania



If you look at the contest outside of the Old South, Sanders won 60% of the states, but if you add her 12 states in the Old South to her 12 states outside of the Old South -- as we all agree you MUST -- she's got over 55% of the states.

This is a regionally important factor (not a racial factor), and it is a significant data point to note that Hillary performs worse than Sanders outside of her region and whips his ass within her region.

Without her overwhelming support in the Deep South, Hillary is losing this race. This is an important thing to know.

If Sanders is our nominee, it would be important that he strengthen his support in the regions where he is weak and maybe not retool his campaign so much where he's pretty much already on fire.

It is equally important information if Hillary is the nominee because Hillary would need to be aware that she's not winning this race outside of her region and she should make adjustments to her campaign accordingly.

These are facts. Some Hillary supporters will try to force an artificial racial construct on these facts, but that's superfluous and, even if it weren't superfluous, it does not change the fact that Hillary is winning overall only because of her regional appeal in the Deep South. Hillary needs to know when she is trying to broaden her appeal, she's Democrats' second choice in almost half the states. It is not a racist thing to point this out; it's a demonstrable fact.

Given this fact, what does Hillary need to do to broaden her appeal outside of the Deep South if she is nominated? Three points:

1. Hillary needs to emphasize the progressive aspects of her campaign (her Old South region is the least progressive region within the US in terms of social issues such as LGBT acceptance, and far less progressive than the West, where she performs poorly as compared to Sanders).

2. Hillary needs to emphasize the populist aspects of her campaign (her Old South Region is the least accepting of collective bargaining rights and similar economic populist issues, and far less accepting of these issues than parts of the Mid-West and Rust Belt where she under-performed).

3. Hillary needs to consider a progressive, populist running-mate from the West, Mid-West, Rust Belt or North East if she is nominated.

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Reply Hillary is beloved regionally and a close 2nd choice outside her region. How to broaden her appeal (Original post)
Attorney in Texas May 2016 OP
tularetom May 2016 #1
Attorney in Texas May 2016 #3
tularetom May 2016 #6
Attorney in Texas May 2016 #7
Baobab May 2016 #9
Codeine May 2016 #2
Press Virginia May 2016 #4
Attorney in Texas May 2016 #5
Vote2016 May 2016 #8

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu May 5, 2016, 07:43 PM

1. She only won those southern states because of strong support from black voters

That won't be enough to give her an edge in the general election because white voters in those states pretty much hate her guts. If she wants to win she will have to do it without the bubba vote.

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Response to tularetom (Reply #1)

Thu May 5, 2016, 07:51 PM

3. She won those states because of strong support from centrist/conservative/church-going Democrats

Sanders didn't win over centrist/conservative/church-going WHITE Democrats in the Old South states either so the race of these voters is beside the point.

Regardless of race, Hillary did better among centrist/conservative/church-going Democrats in the Old South states.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #3)

Thu May 5, 2016, 07:57 PM

6. OK, whatever you say, but she will not win those states in November

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Response to tularetom (Reply #6)

Thu May 5, 2016, 07:58 PM

7. Agreed

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Response to tularetom (Reply #1)

Thu May 5, 2016, 10:00 PM

9. Not "beloved" under any circumstances

folks who say that aren't going to remain credible.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu May 5, 2016, 07:50 PM

2. That's some silly, desperate shit.

 

But the important thing to remember is that she won and will be our nominee and our 45th President.

Have a nice evening.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu May 5, 2016, 07:55 PM

4. Beloved? Really?

 

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Response to Press Virginia (Reply #4)

Thu May 5, 2016, 07:56 PM

5. Her numbers among Democrats in the Old South look awfully strong. Elsewhere, no so much.

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Response to Press Virginia (Reply #4)

Thu May 5, 2016, 09:55 PM

8. Her whole advantage is from Dixie. She's losing in the rest of the US. She must be loved in those 12

 

states to overcome her subpar performance is the 30 other states.

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