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Wed Oct 31, 2012, 08:59 AM

Election Forecast Summaries: 10/31 (morning)

Happy Halloween. I generally don't update this in the morning, but PEC was down for an hour and came back up with some great numbers, and I felt like sharing.

From now until the election I'll post once or twice a day with these summaries. "p(RE)" means "probability of re-election," although I've now gone to a standard percentage-based unit. "unch" means unchanged from last report.

[font color="blue"]
Votamatic: O 332 (unch)

University of Illinois U-C: O 291.6 (unch); p(RE)=94.9% (unch)

Electoral-vote.com: O 280, R 206, T 52 (R-29, T+29)

Huffington Post: O 253, R 206, T 79 (unch)

FiveThirtyEight: O 299 (unch); p(RE)=77.4% (unch)

Princeton: O 318 (+13); p(RE)=95%, 99% (+2%, +1%)

DeSart/Holbrook: O 281 (unch); p(RE)=86.66% (unch)[/font]
[font color="red"]
...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 179, R 359 (unch from 10/25) [/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $2,400!

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Reply Election Forecast Summaries: 10/31 (morning) (Original post)
Chichiri Oct 2012 OP
Chichiri Oct 2012 #1
Chichiri Oct 2012 #5
barnabas63 Oct 2012 #6
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #2
Chichiri Oct 2012 #3
Chichiri Oct 2012 #4

Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:06 AM

1. Does anyone know how to render font in smaller letters?

I need to add a footnote to the Princeton numbers explaining the two separate probabilities.

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:30 AM

5. Anyone? :-/ eom

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #5)


Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:15 AM

2. The figures just got better (again!) on PEC...

...at the 10:00 A.M. report:

EV
Obama 318
Romney 220

Meta-margin
Obama +2.60

Re-election odds
Random Drift 95%
Bayesian Prediction 99%

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:16 AM

3. Aieee!

NOW what do I do?

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:17 AM

4. Post edited to update PEC numbers. eom

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