SANDERS LEADS CLINTON OVER 2-TO-1 IN CALIFORNIA

[silvershadow]

SANDERS LEADS CLINTON OVER 2-TO-1 IN CALIFORNIA

Posted on May 8, 2016 by thepoliticalanalyzer

The following meticulous study considers the surprising number of New Voters who have registered to the Democratic Party and who have chosen to remain Unaffiliated.

In the opinion of the Secretariat of State and of some recently published studies, there was an increase of 185% of the members from January 2016, and to make matters worse, they are almost always Hispanics (in some counties the Hispanic Youth represents 98 % of New Voters). [1 ]

To carry out the analysis I considered Californians Census Data 2010, the Californian Secretary of State Data, to study the Past Elections and the Last Primaries I took as reference points The Green Papers and Dave Leip, to study the vote by ethnicity I studied multiple studies simultaneously to extrapolate exacts data: Gallup, UC Davis, Public Policy Polling, Pew Research. [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]

After collecting the material I have assigned the value of the parameters for each ethnic group and age group, matching the results. Finally I assigned the turnout for ethnicity, age, county and Party Affiliation.

more: https://thepoliticalanalyzer.com/2016/05/08/sanders-leads-clinton-over-2-to-1-in-california/

[SheilaT]

1. Really? I somehow had thought (and who knows where I'd gotten

this impression) that she was well ahead.

Oh, do I hope this is accurate.

[Cali_Democrat]

2. LOL

[mindwalker_i]

68. "Cackle"

[JaneyVee]

172. Sexism.

[mindwalker_i]

173. The "Go To" argument to defend Hillary strikes again

Hillary started the BernieBro meme, so she has USED sexism. You lose the right to be taken seriously on this.

[grasswire]

3. I want a crushing victory for Bernie in California.

Crushing.

[silvershadow]

6. Would be fun. Not so sure that kind of thing is coming, but ? Who knows? nt

[liberal from boston]

171. Go Bernie

Signs of Panic?? California voter registration experiencing Historic Growth.
"Demographically, they largely fit the profile of Bernie Sanders supporters," Vasquez said. "How many will vote down ticket, and what are the campaigns doing to appeal to these new voters? We’ll find out on election night.”

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2016/may/09/report-new-voters-may-influence-san-diego-races/

[Arkansas Granny]

4. Recent polls give a different picture.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html#polls

[silvershadow]

12. I know. Polls are all over the place. Here's a graphic about some anomalies in polling:

[dchill]

27. +1,000,001

[silvershadow]

113. Thank you. nt

[kerry-is-my-prez]

135. Those are exit polls not regular polls. There's a big difference......

[silvershadow]

136. Oh really? Do expound... nt

[kerry-is-my-prez]

141. Google it....... That is a "politics 101" question.

[20score]

153. .......

[muriel_volestrangler]

159. Isn't "thepoliticalanalzer" "someone I don't know on the internet"

who tossed out a vague idea, and you then wrote an enthusiastic OP using it?

[silvershadow]

161. I didn't write a single word of the OP. I just shared it so we can

all see what is out there. But, you knew that.

[muriel_volestrangler]

163. Ah, so you're saying we should ignore all of the OP, because it's written

by someone we don't know on the Internet. Your OP is, by your own standards, useless.

[silvershadow]

164. No, I didn't say that either. You did though. nt

[MariaThinks]

203. "those" people on the internet weren't so dumb afternall.

[CreekDog]

196. Exit polls are not designed to validate or invalidate an election result

or they would have sampling design that allows the exit polls to do that.

however, exit polls instead, take the election result as a given and are only designed to tell you how subgroups within the voting population voted.

an exit poll that is designed to validate or invalidate election results could be done, but that would require a truly random sample of the whole population that voted (in person, early, by mail, etc.) distributed across the state in the same proportions as turnout.

[JimDandy]

139. The exit polls are a big fat red flag for Dems this election season.

Until electronic voting machines began to be used in elections, exit polls were pretty accurate and touted by the media. They often could call the winner off exit polls immediately after the polls closed. No more.

[Maedhros]

178. Polls gave Clinton the lead in Oregon.

But Oregon uses mail-in ballots, not voting machines, and we saw how it turned out...

[CreekDog]

207. Your premise is false, in California Hillary won the mail in ballots by a large margin

and Bernie won the in-person by a small one.

so much for your theory, but I imagine it sounds good to you since it's a lot simpler than a hypothesis borne out by facts.

[RazBerryBeret]

176. Exit Polls...

aren't those the standard that we, Americans use to make sure elections in other, smaller countries are legitimate?? Kinda makes you wonder.

[CreekDog]

197. Exit polls can only be used to validate elections if they are designed that way

Our exit polls aren't. Our exit polls are designed to see how subgroups helped produce the overall election result.

[Recursion]

195. Do you really not know the difference between exit polls and pre-election polls?

Wow

They're not even closely related things in any real sense; they just share the name "poll" because they involve asking people questions.

[MariaThinks]

204. clearly not.

[thesquanderer]

57. Do polls typically include people who have just registered this year?

Those are the ones pushing the OP's analysis in the Bernie direction.

[Arkansas Granny]

63. I don't know the answer to that, but I don't see any reason why they would be excluded.

The link I posted is from Real Clear Politics. They average the results from several polls rather than rely on just one source.

[Yavin4]

67. Because they're not likely to vote

They may not even know where their polling place is located.

[Live and Learn]

156. Seriously???

You think they went to all the trouble to register just for fun?

[liberal from boston]

79. Go Bernie

I read that new voter registrations have surged (mostly young voters)--CA deadline is May 23rd.

[JackRiddler]

98. Why, however, do you think they just registered?

That's an essential question.

[thesquanderer]

100. Because Bernie's campaign is making a concerted effort to register new voters? (n/t)

[JackRiddler]

102. I figure that too.

We will see!

[Live and Learn]

157. Most campaigns make a concerted effort to register new voters for big elections.

The fact that the Hillary campaign hasn't speaks volumes.

[ucrdem]

5. "In the opinion of the Secretariat of State"

straight from the horse's mouth you might say


p.s. the cray-cray is thick here ...

[Chitown Kev]

7. It's a Sham, I tell you...

[Codeine]

42. When they say "The media wants a horse race" I had no idea

they meant it quite that literally.

[pdsimdars]

71. speaking of cray-cray, projecting much?

.

[senz]

90. Perfect image for 90% of Hill Bro posts.

[Enthusiast]

116. Just trying to inject a humor.

[Number23]

126. I love how ANY TIME someone refutes the unadulterated BS here about Sanders

some Sanders supporter comes flying out of nowhere to whine about being "condescended" to or that people are "mocking" them.

It's like, "how dare you correct our half-baked, delusional misinformation!!11 YOU'RE BEING SO MEAN!!!1one"

[ucrdem]

133. LOL, yep. I guess they're still hoping for a horserace

but it's pretty much ovah. I vote on June 7 and I'd like to think I'll cast the vote that puts her over the top. My first Hillary vote too LOL

[kerry-is-my-prez]

138. Think it's time to head back to the sanity forum (the Hillary forum). I work all day with psych

Patients. Don't need too much more crazy in my life, especially on my time off.

[ucrdem]

148. Sanest suggestion yet

[okasha]

149. From internet polls to imaginary polls.

The patient is decompensating, Doctor.

[annavictorious]

145. And the name of the "publication"

is Political "Analyer" rather than "analyst".

[ucrdem]

147. I guess the copy editors had to go too.

Sad.

[Lil Missy]

8. You should send more money. n/t

[silvershadow]

9. It sure takes a lot. That's why he is fighting to change the way we do politics.

He is fighting as hard as he can for campaign finance reform.

[merrily]

34. Thanks! I'm about to do just that.

[Merryland]

53. Guess you don't have to, since your candidate has Wall Street.

[Kittycat]

77. And Bush Donors.

[senz]

93. Yep, rolling in Wall St. and Bush $$ -- she's a "Democrat," you know.

[AtomicKitten]

10. The left coast will deliver for Bernie.

[msongs]

11. california does not have a secretariat of state lol nt

[Codeine]

43. But Bernie's rallies in Seattle slew. nt

[lagomorph777]

50. This horse race is heating up.

[SusanCalvin]

142. .

[TexasTowelie]

13. Funny.

To carry out the analysis I considered Californians Census Data 2010, the Californian Secretary of State Data, to study the Past Elections and the Last Primaries I took as reference points The Green Papers and Dave Leip, to study the vote by ethnicity I studied multiple studies simultaneously to extrapolate exacts data: Gallup, UC Davis, Public Policy Polling, Pew Research.

When I was in college we called that a scientific wild-assed guess (SWAG). It's especially interesting since the totals between Clinton and Sanders came to 100.00% considering that Rocky De La Fuente is still in the race and he is from San Diego.

[silvershadow]

15. I know. Polls are all over the place. Here's a graphic about some anomalies in polling:

[TexasTowelie]

17. I guess if they include this overestimate by politicalanalyzer then

everything should even out the polls that favor Clinton.

[silvershadow]

19. No this was pointing out the disenfranchisement this primary

has wrought.

[merrily]

35. +1

[silvershadow]

114. thank you. nt

[yellowcanine]

48. I think more WAG than SWAG. Looks something like the "analysis" I did in 1988

which showed Dukakis beating G.H.W. Bush by a comfortable margin in EVs.

[BainsBane]

14. That piece is just sad

What desperation. But even if the delusional author is right and people of color will change their voting patterns from previously elections and vote for Bernie instead of Clinton, it won't be enough for him to catch up in the delegate count or popular vote. It has been clear since March he would not win and now that 78% of votes have been cast and he trails by over 3 million, it's even more obvious.
Clinton won California in 2008. It didn't deliver her the nomination, and she never trailed by the large deficit that Bernie does.

It's truly unfortunate that his followers have decided the only thing that matters is his career. They could be working on issues, policy that might make a difference in people's lives.

[elias7]

20. "his followers have decided the only thing that matters is his career" - So wrong

I don't know why someone like you would push the Bernie ego meme that has become popular amongst the DU HRC supporters, i can't imagine you believe that to be true. It is not about Bernie, it is about the country and the planet. It's about us.

[SpareribSP]

140. Some hardcore projection nonsense

Guess which campaign is literally using "I'm with her"?

Accuse your opponent of your weakness is disinformation tactic #1. It's some real ugly stuff.

This one is completely transparent, too. I can't imagine any Bernie supporter buying into it because it's so profoundly stupid. It only instead enforces the Hillary echo chamber and makes Bernie people more frustrated.

[dubyadiprecession]

16. She needs less than half of those california delegates to win the nomination..

Sorry BS.

[CentralMass]

40. If the super delegates that have committed so far had done so proportionately based on delegates won

Here is how the vote count would look.


Of the 3,149 delegates that have been awarded so far from the contested states. Bernie has 1,433 or 45.5% of the 3,149, and Hillary has 1,716 of the pledged delegates or 54.5% of the 3,149.

Yet the reported super delegate count is Hillary 524 to Bernie'Sanders 40. So Bernie's 40 out of 564 superd's that have committed is 7% of the 564 while Hillary's 524 is 92.9% of the 564 superd's that have committed.

So if right now the super delegates that have committed to date had done so proportionately by the standard delegate count that each candidate has won the tally would be

Hillary 1,716 + 307 = 2,023
Bernie 1,433 + 257 = 1,690

This would be only a 333 delegate difference at this point in the race with some key states to go and since the superd's don't really commit until the convention.there is only a 283 awarded delegate count delta between the two candidates right now.

[Peace Patriot]

18. The huge surge in CA voter registrations makes this a plausible forecast.

Also, the demographics of the surge points strongly at Sanders as the inspiration. CA has had a whopping 161% increase in voter reg in age 25-30, and a 70% increase in age 18-24. And CA registration is on-going to May 23. Below, it says 850,000 new reg's (4/21/6). It will get larger.

Here's Capitol Weekly report on the dramatic CA registration surge (4/21/16):

Overall, registration has skyrocketed in the first months of 2016. There have been over 850,000 registrations in the months between January 1 and March 31. This is twice as much as was registered during the same period in 2012. It even exceeds the total new registrations in the months leading up to the 2008 Primary, albeit that was a February primary, so much of the registration window was dominated by the Fall and Winter holidays.

This skyrocketing registration can be broken out by partisanship, ethnicity and age, and shows some striking differences by group. In a traditional election year, a 65% growth from the same period of last year would be remarkable. But this year we are seeing a doubling of registration growth among Latinos, and a more than 150% increase for some young voters, and a near-tripling for Democrats.

http://capitolweekly.net/ca120-voter-surge-now-california/

I read the OP article carefully several times, and its methodology made sense. For instance, for the No Party Preference vote, the analyst assigned 70% of it to Sanders but with only a 50% turnout. That seems about right. The analysis takes many things into consideration, including past elections and recent primary elections. It gets the African American percentage (55%) for Sanders from the recent Wisconsin primary, and the Asian-American percentage (57.5%) for Sanders from Gallup.

The final result: Sanders 68.17%, 31.83% Clinton.

[yourpaljoey]

29. WOW!

Great day to send another 27.

[Merryland]

54. Sent my $27 last night in honor of West By God Virginia!

Land of country roads and my ancestors.

[Demsrule86]

30. I wonder how many Republican votes

Sanders will win this time. They want him as the nominee. He won quite a few in WVA...enough to tip the election to him.

[NewImproved Deal]

51. Those new Registrations ain't for the Former First Lady...

A vote for Clinton is a vote for Neo-Liberalism, Death Squads and Perpetual War...

[link:|

[thesquanderer]

60. The problem is that even winning CA by 2 to 1 is probably not enough for Bernie.

He probably needs to win it closer to 3 to 1 for it to have a chance of swinging the nomination. He needs to win by more than 2 to 1 overall from here on out, and that's not going to happen in Kentucky, New Jersey, New Mexico, or DC, so he'll need even bigger wins elsewhere, and we're running out of states that have large numbers of delegates (that is, big wins in the Dakotas are not going to be able to make up the difference). For example, here's one possible path I came up with for him... see http://demrace.com/?share=GH4zWRsT - That scenario is unlikely in the extreme, but I have a hard time seeing a better one.

[Maedhros]

179. A 2:1 victory for Bernie in California has value beyond the Primary election.

It carries into the convention, and into the mid-term elections in 2018.

[MrMickeysMom]

21. This supports what my California nephew has been telling me...

... that Bernie Sanders will absolutely crush it.... That's doesn't absolve me from continuing to phone bank.

Join me, everyone! PM for details!!!

[SidDithers]

22. thepoliticalanalyzer. LOL...

Make sure you look back in some of his earlier "analysis".



Sid

[ViseGrip]

46. I did, and without the fraud, he was close in NY on his polling.

12 point deviation. Do you study elections and electoral math AFTER THE VOTE? Or just before, and only 'delegate math'?

Why, there is so much more to see after the vote. But most voters don't pay attention to the processes afterwards.

[onenote]

109. How do you come up with your "12 point deviation"

First, the idea that being 12 points off is the same as being "close" is laughable.
Second, he wasn't 12 points off, he was 24 points off. He called it for Sanders by 8 and Clinton won by 16.
Third, while it is true that well over 100,000 voters were deleted from the Democratic party voter rolls, there is no evidence that (1) all of those voters actually tried to vote; (2) that all, or even most, of those voters would have voted for Sanders.

Yet even making those unsupported and unsupportable assumptions -- that is, assuming every voter deleted from the rolls tried to vote for Bernie but couldn't -- you still end up with Clinton winning by over 8 points and this "close" call being 16 points off the mark. Which isn't even close in horseshoes.

[Sancho]

23. There needs to be a special forum for BS...

sort of the FOX news of DU.

Automatically locate OPs from people who average almost 50 posts a day with virtually nothing but false premises and spin and fake stories. Well, we won't have to put up with the fake stories (and this is just another one) too much longer. The Political Analyzer is nothing but a Sanders propaganda site with no real credibility. It's basically a paid advertisement!!

Italian Psychologist and Political Scientist. Social Media Expert, Trends and Sentiment Analyzer, Memetica Expert, Frames Guru, Storyteller, Marketing and Communication, Musician, Rapper, Writer, Ghostwriter, and many more.

and it's a Word Press paid site:

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Regardless of the "meticulous" and convoluted "methodology" of this study, we can all conclude that bananas cause death because everyone who ate a banana eventually died.

It really doesn't matter what "new voters" in California think, or how many will really vote, or what ethnicity they are...unless the big earthquake occurs and California falls into the ocean - Hillary has won and Bernie has lost.

There are too many primaries and too many delegates already on the books. This OP is a paid ad...and silvershadow likely knows it, but we can't say for sure. It's OK for someone to waste time and money on bash OPs because most people on DU already know it won't change anyone's mind, and it's better for money to be wasted here than other places.

[Agschmid]

41. Yup.

[Ace Rothstein]

62. It is the unskewedpolls.com of 2016.

[TacoD]

97. At least I'll know where to go next time I need a "memetica expert" or "frames guru" (nt)

[TacoD]

101. The Political Analyzer speaks truth to power

"And Bernie is actually ahead in the polls, whatever the polls say it, but this way he gives a chance for Clinton, revives her and revives her electorate that in these days it’s very demoralized and inclined to boycott the polls or to vote for Sanders."

https://thepoliticalanalyzer.com/2016/04/05/sanders-was-wrong-to-accept-the-debate/

[Number23]

125. Ah shit. The Political Analyzer is a pollster AND a rapper too??!!!?

Break it down, honey!

[NCTraveler]

24. Love the "About Us" section.

Italian Psychologist and Political Scientist. Social Media Expert, Trends and Sentiment Analyzer, Memetica Expert, Frames Guru, Storyteller, Marketing and Communication, Musician, Rapper, Writer, Ghostwriter, and many more.

[JoePhilly]

28. Wait ... he's NOT a body language expert too???????

Can't trust him then!!!

[wildeyed]

118. I wanna be a Memetica Expert when I grow up!

[NCTraveler]

122. Mr. Spock. Nt

[Number23]

127. Anything on there about hot body massages and tantric yoga?

Every reputable analyzer worth his salt has those skills too, you know.

[brush]

82. Didn't he win the triple crown back in the day?

[brush]

124. Good one. I didn't expect that.

[workinclasszero]

31. Is this satire?

The Onion maybe?

[COLGATE4]

33. Hard to believe it, but no. And even harder to believe

that DUers would be so gullible as to 1) believe it and 2) post it.

[wildeyed]

119. HA Goodman's alter ego?

I heard that he is a Memetica Expert too!

[George II]

32. "The following meticulous study....." And then the very next sentence is:

"In the opinion of the Secretariat of State and of some recently published studies..."

[workinclasszero]

52. Secretariat of State

Since when do we have race horses in the State Dept?

[George II]

65. Remember, the media has been pushing the "horse race" for months.

[Freddie Stubbs]

86. Certainly is plausible:

[rusty fender]

92. LOLOLOL!

Good one!

[Codeine]

120. Bojack Horseman 2020!

For Once Let the Neighs Have It!

[Bobbie Jo]

123. !!!

[Sparkly]

137. HahahaHA!!!!

[Quayblue]

110. Lol nt

[Starry Messenger]

36. Gonna be some sad-assed folks here come June 7th.

[pdsimdars]

72. At least we have hope and enthusiasm on our side, unlike Hillary.

.

[brush]

83. If only they would vote.

[pdsimdars]

111. Guess you didn't read the OP about how they rigged the vote totals.

When Bernie won Washington by 72% they gave him ZERO votes. That is one example. Here is the post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1948469

If you don't put the votes in the vote totals, it can look one sided.

[Starry Messenger]

155. I'll be filling in my mail-in ballot for Hillary with great joy this weekend.

Thanks!

[Agschmid]

37. Bookmarked. See you in June.

[NorthCarolina]

38. Most likely not in the envelope vote though. -nt-

[reddread]

39. with three weeks to go

this wont be the first 80-<20 blowout,
but it will be the best.

[SidDithers]

44. More "analysis" from the politicalanalyzer...

POLL: SANDERS LEADS CLINTON BY 8% IN NEW YORK

THAT’S WHY SANDERS LEADING WITH 58% IN NEW YORK

SANDERS IS GOING TO WIN NEW YORK WITH 58%

SANDERS WILL REACH 2470 DELEGATES. THAT’S WHY

BERNIE HAS 10-POINT LEAD IN ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI

BERNIE SANDERS IS OVERTAKING HILLARY CLINTON IN FLORIDA




Sid

[workinclasszero]

49. Wow this guy is like HA Goodman

The opposite of everything he predicts is the truth!

Another prophet in reverse for Bernie!

[firebrand80]

55. Evidence that Hillary cheated nt

[Adrahil]

69. Yeah... it's incredible the bullshit people will swallow. Outcome-based thinking. NT

[ViseGrip]

45. Go Bernie!!!!!! Sent more money again, and hubby sent one too!

[NewImproved Deal]

47. Beautiful news! Ignore the Clinton Trolls--full speed ahead, Compadres!

[link:|

[BillZBubb]

56. Love the pic!

California goes big for Bernie!

[Tarc]

58. Political Analyzer, the HA Goodman of statistical analysis

[TwilightZone]

91. Though, a lot less bitter

[WhiteTara]

59. About the author and website

A little about myself. My name is Garvit Zalani and I am 14 years in age but a political analyst. A proficient MUNner, trained in diplomacy, I have learned to form my perspective based on the current outlook of the world and India. A Hollywood fan and music addict among other things I am also a foodie and love cycling. I am a devout atheist hence religion does not influence my writing.
https://politicsanalyzer.wordpress.com/about/

Here is the info on the website itself.
http://thepoliticalanalyzer.com.ipaddress.com/

So a 14 year old from Italy is the new predictor of US presidential elections. Interesting.

[Codeine]

61. I have no words.

[MineralMan]

89. Uff da! Oh, well.

Any source in a storm, I suppose.

[obamanut2012]

106. 'My name is Garvit Zalani and I am 14 years in age "

[WhiteTara]

112. That's pretty much what I thought. n t

[wildeyed]

121. That is.... pitiful.

[Number23]

128. I have to give him props. 14 years old and he fooled 65 gullible people probably 6 times his age

That takes some serious talent. Probably.

[muriel_volestrangler]

160. Those do seem to be 2 separate people

"politicsanalyzer" is the 14 year old Indian - Garvit Zalani

https://twitter.com/garvit013

"thepoliticalalanyzer" is Luigi De Michele (the contact name in your 2nd link), who is this Italian:

https://twitter.com/GigiFionder

https://www.linkedin.com/in/luigi-de-michele-590bb879

"Luigi De Michele
Activist presso Bernie Sanders
Bari Area, Italy
Marketing and Advertising
Current
The Political Analyzer, Bernie Sanders Admin and Organizer, Bernie Sanders (Memetic Bern)"

[garvitzalani]

185. Really?

Somehow, an unknown person, who doesn't even know me is commenting on the stuff I write. That seems a bit hypocritic right?
And I would plead you to get your facts right. I am an Indian, not an Italian and certainly I haven't written any stuff on the upcoming US Presidential Elections. So rather than making stupid accusations and labelling perhaps it would be better to know the person first.

[WhiteTara]

187. Is this your blog?

https://politicsanalyzer.wordpress.com/about/

[JumpinJehosaphat]

64. The HRC supporters don't get it or too many of them are deflecting.

Bernie Sanders clearly is voicing the views of millions of Americans, and more specifically democratic voters, concerning a progressive agenda for the country. He may not win the nomination because of the enormous support of the democratic establishment for HRC, the backing she has received from wealthy and powerful financial interests BUT he needs to be in it until the end and keep fighting. It has been a phenomenal campaign that Sanders and his staff have put together. The more delegates he receives, even if he falls short, allows for greater leverage to move this slow moving Democratic Party ship in the right direction.

[pdsimdars]

75. Someone mentioned the Camp Weathvane Ostrich Army.

[JumpinJehosaphat]

152. indeed, too many of them don't come for air.

[workinclasszero]

85. "Bernie Sanders clearly is voicing the views of millions of Americans, and more specifically...

democratic voters..."

Gee I wonder why Hillary has 3 million more democratic votes than Bernie then???

[JumpinJehosaphat]

150. Gee, so you're thinking that the other 9 million+ so far who voted for Sanders don't count for much.

Let's not forget how a Senator from a small state with little national name ID (in comparison to HRC who has an enormous national footprint) has achieved in galvanizing the democratic base. It continues to amaze. Unfortunately, it shows just how weak a candidate we have in Clinton. Keep fighting for every last vote Bernie, no vote should be taken for granted!

[obamanut2012]

107. "My name is Garvit Zalani and I am 14 years in age "

[beachbumbob]

66. Lol...an opinion stated as fact..Coming from a sanders supporter..what a

Surprise

[Redwoods Red]

115. Yeah, good thing Hillary supporters never do that.

[pdsimdars]

70. If that is the real level of support, it is hard to have enough "voting irregularities" to steal

that one.

[Betty Karlson]

73. So that explains today's Brocksplaining: "Sanders needs to drop out because of reasons and stuff"

Oh that delightful glimmering of Hope on the Horizon. Go California: feel the Bern!

[KingFlorez]

74. This isn't even a poll, it's a bunch of hypothetical calculating

[tonyt53]

76. Reality isn't a strong suite for Bernie-ites

[obamanut2012]

108. "My name is Garvit Zalani and I am 14 years in age"

That's the author.

[The Second Stone]

78. I, a Hillary supporter, bet a dollar two months ago on Bernie to win California

because I think it may happen. (I put a buck on Trump to win the Republican nomination back in October against the rest of the field.)

Incidentally, in California, it's "Secretary" of State, not "Secretariat", which was the fastest horse ever.

[Godhumor]

80. I feel bad shutting down a 14 year old kid, but his analysis of anything but

Who knows though. Maybe he'll enjoy his playing around enough that he actually decides to go and learn how to do proper analysis. We always need new blood in the industry.

[dana_b]

81. We want to deliver some great news for Bernie here in Cali

I'm volunteering from now until election day with calls, GOTV and canvassing. I hope others will join us.

[ISUGRADIA]

84. Ha ha

The same site predicted Sanders winning PA, CT and DE easily too.

[Number23]

131. So he was wrong about other states in addition to the unabashed foolishness of this article?

Well, the lad is only 14. He'd probably learn from his mistakes if Bernie supporters stopped hanging on his every word as though they were gospel.

[Chezboo]

87. This and other polls stating 2:1 margins

for Sanders are misleading and designed to make us complacent. The April Field Poll, (the standard in CA, had Hil 47, Bernie 41. It may have changed since the early April poll, but we have a lot of work to do. Go Bernie!

[MineralMan]

88. Random anonymous blogger with English as second language says...

Who cares, really? Ugly blog design, too.

I'm out.

[Ferd Berfel]

94. Good

[TacoD]

95. SANDERS IS GOING TO WIN NEW YORK WITH 58% (3/29/16)

https://thepoliticalanalyzer.com/2016/03/29/sanders-is-going-to-win-new-york-with-58/

[Maedhros]

180. If you carefully parse all the available data, one very subtle point comes out:

New York and California are very, very different.

[apnu]

96. Hmm, mabye that's why Bernie's CA campaign manager quit.

Not.

[ContinentalOp]

99. lol, this kook again?

He assigns white voters to 70% of the turnout even though they're only 42% of the CA population, and were only 55% of the CA vote in 2012? And then he decides to give Sanders 55% of the black vote and 60% of the latino vote!? hahahaha sure.

Expect it to be a lot more like NY where Clinton got 75% of the black vote and 64% of the latino vote.

[onenote]

103. Apparently the Dick Morris school of political prognosticating has a new graduate

Apparently, this is a graduate of Morris' middle-school curriculum.

[Sheepshank]

104. "Secretariat of State"

...yup, this sure is a horse race.

[SidDithers]

117. I miss Asher Heimermann...nt

Sid

[Number23]

130. I am WHEEZING from laughing so hard at this damn thread. I nominate this Thread of the 2016 Primary

"Sanders ahead 2-1 in California!11" says 14 year old "analyst" in Italy. And the hordes, that scream that EVERYONE ELSE is a "low information voter" or part of a "cult" based on nothing but fame and personality, come running to rec.

Bookmarked. Kicked. Adored. Cherished.

[Bobbie Jo]

168. I LOVE this thread!

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

[Number23]

174. It's the best thing to hit this forum since the overheated and moronic rapture over the Bernie Bird

[Kang Colby]

188. +1000

This is pure gold, can't stop laughing.

[Number23]

189. And I truly believe that this half assed "commentary" is the reason so many BS supporters think he

is going to win California.

[Kang Colby]

190. Yup. He might win California...but it will be by under 10%, and it will be a moot point because...

She was won the race at this point.

[LiberalFighter]

129. I'm sure a jack-of-all-trades Italian is an expert on American politics.

[CountAllVotes]

132. Go Bernie Sanders Go !!!

>>Regarding Bernie Sanders I assigned the average of 60% of White voters and an average of 70% of the turnout, as regards the Black Voters I assigned a county by county average of 55% (following the Wisconsin data) and an average turnout of 55% (pre-Obaman turnout), as regards to the Asians I assigned respectively on average 57.5% of the votes and 60% of turnout. Finally I gave Senator Vermont the percentage of Hispanic Vote and Turnout: 60% and 60%. In conclusion I assigned the rating of Unaffiliated: 75% to Sanders and 25% to Clinton, with a turnout of 50%.

**************

The above = very good news for Bernie!

[tonyt53]

134. Let's see, if that holds, Bernie gets a bunch, then HRC gets enough to have the nomination

Bernie loses again.

[annavictorious]

144. Political "analyzer"

rather than "analyst".

"secretariat of state" rather than "secretary".

Was this "study" conducted by one of Sanders's foreign donors?

[TwilightZone]

146. Wait...people are taking this seriously?

[Codeine]

165. They don't even realize how badly they've embarrassed themselves. nt

[Number23]

175. My favorite thread of 2016. Bar none.

This is an absolute classic.

[TwilightZone]

184. And people are still taking it seriously and don't know it's a fake. That's the best part.

[Maedhros]

181. Well, I'm not taking YOU seriously...

/ignore list.

[TwilightZone]

183. Oh, thank god. I was starting to worry.

Try reading the thread next time, genius. The OP is based on an article from a 14-year-old Italian kid who made the whole thing up.

But, hey, if you want to look like a fool, be my guest.

[highprincipleswork]

151. C'mon California. I know you can do it. Put Bernie over the top.

[redstateblues]

154. How embarrassing for you that you posted this

[synergie]

158. Wow what an amusing blog, too bad it's pretty much just BS.

But you cling to it, just like Karl Rove did and be speechless when your fantasies don't play out like this guy with his 'meticulous' number games don't quite match reality.

[Nonhlanhla]

162. Every child needs a hobby.

Kudos to this kid for having one.

Shame on adults who take this as something realistic, though.

[Freddie Stubbs]

167. Perhaps this will help him get into Western Illinois University

If not, there's always Trump University.

[book_worm]

166. Nice try. Even if Sanders wins California he won't be the nominee.

[Maedhros]

182. But it will be an influential win nonetheless.

Remember, we're in this for the long haul, not just the Primary election. A California victory for Bernie will do a lot to undermine and weaken the corporate wing of the Party, which will be useful going forward.

[jcgoldie]

170. Theres a future for this kid

In fiction but he still gets a D in statistics class.

[anotherproletariat]

177. Funny thing...even if this were true, he still wouldn't get enough delegates to win. nt

[johnp3907]

186. Thanks for the laugh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[okasha]

191. The rec list is the best part of this post.

[Time for change]

192. How does one make sure that they don't get purged?

I've seen reports of efforts to purge Sanders voters in CA.

[silvershadow]

193. Not sure this late...tomorrow is the last day to check/switch your registration though...

everyone should DO so.

[SidDithers]

194. It's fucking hilarious that Berners tout this 14 year old Italian kid...

as if he's the World's best political pundit.



Sid

[MaeScott]

198. Kicked.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

199. There's comic gold in this thread.

[MariaThinks]

201. thanks. Let's read through the incredible analysis shall we.

[woolldog]

200. Bump

[UMTerp01]

202. ...

[Vogon_Glory]

205. Yup, Those Sanders Kids Sure Showed Us Hillary Voters What's What

Yup, those Bernie Sanders-backing kids sure showed us Hillary voters what's what. They shellacked us two-to-one in The Golden State, just like they did in Florida, in Georgia, in Texas, and also in New Jersey.

Oops, those were the results from that alternate universe. The results in this one took a different turn.

[LenaBaby61]

206. Bernie was never...

Going to win California.

I never bought into those right-winged polls with the weird methodology which said the race was as close as 1 or 2 points. I didn't think Hillary would win by 18 points either, but a comfortably high single number to perhaps 10 percentage points.

Welp....