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Thu May 12, 2016, 04:42 PM

Why do dem primary results differ from exit polling

But not the gop exit polling which seemz to reflect the final tallies.
Can this be explained?

45 replies, 1371 views

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Reply Why do dem primary results differ from exit polling (Original post)
SwampG8r May 2016 OP
onecaliberal May 2016 #1
bkkyosemite May 2016 #3
msongs May 2016 #5
bkkyosemite May 2016 #7
stellanoir May 2016 #25
yuiyoshida May 2016 #26
stellanoir May 2016 #31
pat_k May 2016 #12
Ferd Berfel May 2016 #19
dana_b May 2016 #45
highprincipleswork May 2016 #2
leftynyc May 2016 #4
Autumn May 2016 #6
merrily May 2016 #14
Autumn May 2016 #16
merrily May 2016 #22
firebrand80 May 2016 #8
Ferd Berfel May 2016 #20
Android3.14 May 2016 #9
pat_k May 2016 #11
JoePhilly May 2016 #42
pat_k May 2016 #10
merrily May 2016 #13
J_J_ May 2016 #15
dbackjon May 2016 #18
stillwaiting May 2016 #23
dbackjon May 2016 #24
stillwaiting May 2016 #32
dbackjon May 2016 #35
Loudestlib May 2016 #34
ContinentalOp May 2016 #30
stillwaiting May 2016 #33
Ferd Berfel May 2016 #21
dbackjon May 2016 #17
KingFlorez May 2016 #27
ContinentalOp May 2016 #28
Renew Deal May 2016 #29
GoneFishin May 2016 #36
Tarc May 2016 #37
hack89 May 2016 #38
ThePhilosopher04 May 2016 #39
CentralCoaster May 2016 #40
silvershadow May 2016 #41
SheenaR May 2016 #43
silvershadow May 2016 #44

Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:43 PM

1. Cheating. Period.

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Response to onecaliberal (Reply #1)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:43 PM

3. Amen!

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Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #3)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:46 PM

5. except when bernie WINS then it as pure as the driven snow nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #5)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:49 PM

7. No just not as easy to rig against him...

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Response to msongs (Reply #5)

Thu May 12, 2016, 06:30 PM

25. Votes are being shaved electronically in most states which Bernie won also

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/the-primaries-hillary-wins-the-lottery/

and before you start dismissing an intrepid researcher on probabilities with two Master's Degrees in Applied Mathematics maybe you'll be more impressed with a celebrity endorsement of his tireless efforts.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tim-robbins/fix-our-election-system_b_9847102.html?utm_hp_ref=homepage

Every IT security geek has been aware that the EVM's & DRE's were highly hackable since their hurried installation in '03.

We have one of the worst ratings for election integrity among global democracies.

http://ivn.us/2016/03/24/united-states-worst-elections-long-standing-democracy/
http://www.fairvote.org/american_elections_ranked_worst_among_older_democracies_here_s_why
45th : http://www.politicususa.com/2015/02/26/shameful-american-democracy-ranks-45th-electoral-integrity.html
http://theconversation.com/american-elections-ranked-worst-among-western-democracies-heres-why-56485

There was an unofficial hearing on the voting machines after the travesty of '04 during which both Hillary & Obama (both new to the Senate) spoke about the unreliability & undependable nature of the technology that was contracted out to private partisan companies. Their source code is proprietary. If they had nothing to hide it would be open source.

Exit polls are the gold standard for determining election integrity globally.

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Response to stellanoir (Reply #25)

Thu May 12, 2016, 06:50 PM

26. and the results are in!

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Votes are being shaved electronically in most states which Bernie won also
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1951000

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Response to yuiyoshida (Reply #26)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:04 PM

31. wows

that's a first for me

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Response to onecaliberal (Reply #1)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:50 PM

19. Maybe it's not as easy to rig some states (or areas) as others

when you get into the nuts and bolts of it

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Response to onecaliberal (Reply #1)

Thu May 12, 2016, 08:42 PM

45. Gasp!!

You don't think that.... No..... 😱

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:43 PM

2. Hmmmmm. Good question.

 

Perhaps because some around here are so good at..........MATH!

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:45 PM

4. Do you have some

 

links to back that up? Or is this like assuming that all 126,000 people in Brooklyn that got purged were going to vote for Bernie?

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:47 PM

6. Since the republicans match up so well I can only surmise democrats are not as smart as republicans

and just can't quite figure out how to vote. What other reason could there possibly be??

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Response to Autumn (Reply #6)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:09 PM

14. Oh, behaaaave! nt

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Response to merrily (Reply #14)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:42 PM

16. It pains me say that but there is no other logical explanation for it.

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Response to Autumn (Reply #16)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:56 PM

22. Well, at least one thing is certain: no shenanigans were involved, so there's that.

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:51 PM

8. A criminal conspiracy involving hundreds of people across multiple states

That's my guess

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #8)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:52 PM

20. In an electronic era it doesn't take more than a few

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:53 PM

9. Signs point to cheating

 

And this is why, when Hillary supporters scream that Sanders supporters have to vote for her in the general, I have to tell them that she already took my vote.

If I see a sincere change in her tune I will enthusiastically cast my ballot for her in the general. Until then, I do what I want.

And for those who feel a need to defend Ms. Inevitable, all I have to say is that for months and months all the polling points to the conclusion that a vote for Hillary in the Primary is a vote for Trump in the General.

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Response to Android3.14 (Reply #9)

Thu May 12, 2016, 08:38 PM

42. Magic eight ball analysis!!!

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 04:55 PM

10. Possibly because early voting so skewed to Hillary on Democratic side.

I don't know if it's been investigated, but more and more states have early voting. And more and more people are talking advantage of it. Older people are much more likely to vote early, and those votes skew significantly to Hillary. I don't know if there is the same differential on the Republican side. Of course, early voters aren't at the polls for exits.

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:08 PM

13. Exit polls are entirely unreliable-unless they somehow favor Hillary. Then, they're gospel.

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:11 PM

15. her popularity has been manufactured by the media

 

Just look at her rallies to see how popular she really is.

They were caught changing the hand count to match the machine tally...

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #15)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:48 PM

18. If Rallies reflect voters

 

Then why did 50K show up for Bernie in Seattle, but only 17K voted state-wide in WA?


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Response to dbackjon (Reply #18)

Thu May 12, 2016, 06:16 PM

23. That is not the number of votes but the number of delegates.

In caucus states we don't get the raw number of votes which is why HRC claiming to be 3 million votes ahead of Bernie is so very, very disingenuous (I'll be nice here).

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Response to stillwaiting (Reply #23)

Thu May 12, 2016, 06:26 PM

24. wrong again, but thanks for playing.

 

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Response to dbackjon (Reply #24)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:10 PM

32. You really should not be a jackass when there is a chance you might be wrong.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/washington

Read this report.

"Legislative district convention delegates"

"Not actual votes cast"

And just for you because you deserve it:

https://m.

You really thought that few people voted in the whole state?






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Response to stillwaiting (Reply #32)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:22 PM

35. OK - I can admit I was mistaken

 

But the numbers still don't translate well - based on the WP numbers, 1-3 Sanders voters in the entire state was at that rally.

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Response to dbackjon (Reply #24)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:18 PM

34. LOL

Rude and wrong!

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Response to stillwaiting (Reply #23)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:03 PM

30. The raw numbers of votes aren't hard to figure out

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Response to ContinentalOp (Reply #30)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:11 PM

33. You are ever so helpful. nt

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #15)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:54 PM

21. just look at her negatives

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 05:47 PM

17. In Arizona both parties had different exit polls than results

 

of course, when 40% of the vote is done via early voting, and not subject to exit polls, you will have a difference.


GOP - exit polls - Rubio 0%
actual votes - Rubio 13%



So at least in Arizona, your OP is false

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 06:56 PM

27. Exit polls are adjusted throughout the night

And if the network takes the poll in part of a state that might end up voting differently than the statewide total, then you get an inaccurate exit poll.

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:00 PM

28. Link?

I saw an image somebody posted earlier that made this same claim but it was too small to actually read. Is there any evidence this is true or is it yet another fabrication that Sanders supporters will pass around unquestioningly?

One explanation I've seen for inaccurate exit polling is that younger voters are more likely to participate in exit polls. That's a problem that wouldn't affect Republicans as much!

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:03 PM

29. Do you have examples from both parties?

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:45 PM

36. Cheating.

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:48 PM

37. Why, those are Hillary evil ballot-zapping robots, of course

We will win. At all costs.

*BEEP*BOOP*BEEP*BOOP*

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:55 PM

38. Are we simply to take your word for it?

or do you have multiple links that detail your accusation?

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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 07:58 PM

39. Why does Bernie draw tens of thousands of people to his rallies

 

while Clinton draws tens of people to hers? I'm sure the answer is similar.

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Response to ThePhilosopher04 (Reply #39)

Thu May 12, 2016, 08:00 PM

40. Magnets. Sanders has superior magnets.

 



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Response to SwampG8r (Original post)

Thu May 12, 2016, 08:38 PM

41. Very important! See this:

 

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Response to silvershadow (Reply #41)

Thu May 12, 2016, 08:40 PM

43. Thank you.

I couldn't find this.

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Response to SheenaR (Reply #43)

Thu May 12, 2016, 08:40 PM

44. I saved it when I saw it. ;) You are welcome! nt

 

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