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Sat May 14, 2016, 11:59 AM

 

Oregon voting information, as per Benchmark

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/731495854763184128

According to Benchmark today, turnout so far in Oregon has been heaviest in the oldest areas, and Portland (the Bernie stronghold) is the lowest in the state on the Democratic side.

It may or may not mean anything, but it does point to that poll showing Hillary ahead not being as crazy as it first looked. It's hard to see that poll, and this data, and see a win Bernie win by the margins he needs.

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Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
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Arrow 6 replies Author Time Post
Reply Oregon voting information, as per Benchmark (Original post)
CrowCityDem May 2016 OP
SheilaT May 2016 #1
Bluenorthwest May 2016 #5
Arugula Latte May 2016 #2
KPN May 2016 #3
Bluenorthwest May 2016 #4
LWolf May 2016 #6

Response to CrowCityDem (Original post)

Sat May 14, 2016, 12:02 PM

1. Isn't all of Oregon's voting by mail?

 

How in the world is turnout being measured?

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Response to SheilaT (Reply #1)

Sat May 14, 2016, 01:03 PM

5. It's not turnout, they call it turnout but it's stats about the number of ballots turned in thus far

 

and it is very similar to measures at this point in time in 08, most of the ballots come in at the last minute. 25% are in at this point.

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Response to CrowCityDem (Original post)

Sat May 14, 2016, 12:07 PM

2. Portland tends to have more last-minute voters.

 

They can drop their ballots off at drop sites in the few days before the election (when it would be too late to put it in the mail). Historically we've been more apt to procrastinate here in the city (although personally I did get mine into the mail on time).

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Response to CrowCityDem (Original post)

Sat May 14, 2016, 12:30 PM

3. Bernie will win in Portland metro area and Eugene, easily.

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Response to CrowCityDem (Original post)

Sat May 14, 2016, 01:00 PM

4. As of yesterday about 25% of ballots had been returned, it's always like this.

 

That site calls these numbers 'turnout stats' but they are not, they are statistics about the number of ballots returned thus far. By percentage slightly under 08's record breaker but the raw number of potential voters is higher so numerically this cycle is behaving the same as 08 at this point in time.

You can't talk about turnout when it's still in process. That benchmark guy is making a big deal out of absolutely nothing at all.

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Response to CrowCityDem (Original post)

Sat May 14, 2016, 03:06 PM

6. I dropped off my ballot Thursday morning.

I'm excited to have it count for Bernie.

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