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Thu May 26, 2016, 09:34 AM

 

May 26, Poll: Clinton, Sanders neck-and-neck in California.

CNN
Clinton, Sanders neck-and-neck in California
By David Wright, CNN
May 26, 2016


Washington (CNN) A new California poll shows Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders locked in a dead heat, while likely Republican nominee Donald Trump trails both Democrats in general elections matchups in the blue state.

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll, released Thursday, finds Clinton ahead of Sanders 46%-44% among likely Democratic primary voters -- within the poll's margin of error.

Clinton and Sanders supporters, according to the poll, match up with other states: Clinton is favored by registered Democrats and older voters, while Sanders leads among independents and younger voters. More women back Clinton and more men back Sanders, but the gender divide is small.

The PPIC poll also reported that California voters are unhappy with their choices for president in 2016. Just 42% of likely voters said they are satisfied with their options, compared to 57% in May of 2012. Slightly more than half (53%) of Democrats say they are satisfied, but just over a third of Republicans (36%) and independents (35%) say the same.


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Reply May 26, Poll: Clinton, Sanders neck-and-neck in California. (Original post)
imagine2015 May 2016 OP
lagomorph777 May 2016 #1
NWCorona May 2016 #2
CrowCityDem May 2016 #3
firebrand80 May 2016 #6
CrowCityDem May 2016 #7
firebrand80 May 2016 #8
JackRiddler May 2016 #4
firebrand80 May 2016 #5
imagine2015 May 2016 #9
firebrand80 May 2016 #10
Tarc May 2016 #11

Response to imagine2015 (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:38 AM

1. And this poll would not include the effect of the OIG report...

...nor any FBI report that may come out before June 7th.

Seismic shift is in progress.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #1)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:40 AM

2. Nope it sure doesn't reflect that audit. It was like an earthquake yesterday.

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Response to imagine2015 (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:40 AM

3. The numbers make no sense:

 

Hillary up 6 with Whites, 9 with Latinos, who knows how much more with African Americans, and somehow only up 2 in the entire state? That can't be.

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Response to CrowCityDem (Reply #3)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:43 AM

6. I demand that you set your hair on fire

over a single poll

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #6)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:48 AM

7. I fully expect it's an outlier. I just think we should make sure we hear more than the top-line.

 

All anyone is going to hear is the 2 point margin. The fact that the internal numbers don't support that conclusion whatsoever will get lost in the giddy screaming by Bernie fans.

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Response to CrowCityDem (Reply #7)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:52 AM

8. It's an outlier by definition

No other poll showed anything close to that. That doesn't even necessarily mean it's wrong, it just means that the chances of that one being the result vs. all the other showing a much different result is quite low.

Now, if newer polls start to come in showing a close result, then we can conclude that the race has tightened.

When we have a poll showing Bernie winning by 25, then we'll have something important to talk about.

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Response to imagine2015 (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:41 AM

4. Quick, find me a for-profit robocall polling outfit

 

that keeps 18-30 at 6% of its final sample and doesn't do cell phones!

Hurry! We need some BREAKING NEWS about Clinton's insurmountable 39-point lead!

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Response to imagine2015 (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 09:43 AM

5. A win for Bernie in CA does nothing

other than make for a feel-good story, unless he wins by 25+ points

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #5)

Thu May 26, 2016, 10:06 AM

9. Is that a serious comment? Oh! You're just joking. Right?

 


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Response to imagine2015 (Reply #9)

Thu May 26, 2016, 10:13 AM

10. I'm quite serious

Bernie has constructed the narrative that a win in CA changes everything. It doesn't, the candidate with the most PDs will be the nominee. All the stuff about "momentum" and Bernie vs. Trump polls is just talk. There's no evidence that a single SD is ready to flip to Bernie on that basis.

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Response to imagine2015 (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 10:15 AM

11. Even if true though, "neck and neck" would be ~15-18 % points under his target.

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