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Thu May 26, 2016, 05:11 PM

Neck-and-Neck in California as Sanders Virtually Erases 50-Point Deficit

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/05/26/neck-and-neck-california-sanders-virtually-erases-50-point-deficit

New poll shows Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in statistical tie less than two weeks before California's Democratic primary

Less than two weeks before California's critical Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are locked in a dead heat in that state, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The same poll (pdf) shows Sanders outperforming Clinton in a hypothetical match-up against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

The survey, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), shows that among Democratic primary likely voters, 46 percent support Clinton and 44 percent support Sanders. Sanders leads Clinton among those who are very liberal (64% to 35%) as well as among younger voters (66% to 27%). Latino voters are slightly more likely to support Clinton (52% to 43%), while white voters are more divided (47% Clinton, 41% Sanders).

(sinp)

As Politico notes, a Sanders victory on June 7 would create "an awkward situation for Clinton, who could be celebrating being dubbed the 'presumptive nominee' even as she loses the nation's largest state—and one of its most diverse."

40 replies, 1450 views

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Reply Neck-and-Neck in California as Sanders Virtually Erases 50-Point Deficit (Original post)
Ferd Berfel May 2016 OP
amborin May 2016 #1
bravenak May 2016 #5
Corporate666 May 2016 #26
BootinUp May 2016 #33
bravenak May 2016 #2
cali May 2016 #25
bravenak May 2016 #27
onenote May 2016 #40
tonyt53 May 2016 #3
arcane1 May 2016 #4
Ferd Berfel May 2016 #6
nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #9
Corporate666 May 2016 #28
nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #30
RufusTFirefly May 2016 #10
nadinbrzezinski May 2016 #31
AzDar May 2016 #7
LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #8
Ferd Berfel May 2016 #11
LoverOfLiberty May 2016 #15
KingFlorez May 2016 #12
hrmjustin May 2016 #13
gravityspy May 2016 #16
hrmjustin May 2016 #18
TwilightZone May 2016 #23
CrowCityDem May 2016 #14
arcane1 May 2016 #17
TwilightZone May 2016 #24
CrowCityDem May 2016 #29
MADem May 2016 #19
LenaBaby61 May 2016 #34
MADem May 2016 #36
dana_b May 2016 #20
LenaBaby61 May 2016 #32
scscholar May 2016 #21
beardown May 2016 #37
scscholar May 2016 #38
TwilightZone May 2016 #22
BootinUp May 2016 #35
dana_b May 2016 #39

Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:14 PM

1. Yes! Bernie can Win California and the Nomination!!!!!!!!

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Response to amborin (Reply #1)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:17 PM

5. No he CAN'T!

 

How? How can he stop her from getting 78 delegates? How? This is pure fantasy.

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Response to amborin (Reply #1)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:47 PM

26. define "can"

I can bet on double zero ten times in a row when playing roulette and win every time.

It's theoretically possible.

Does that mean it could happen in actuality? No.

Can Bernie win in actuality? No.

But if you prefer to operate on practical impossibilities... then O'Malley can win the nomination.

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Response to Corporate666 (Reply #26)

Thu May 26, 2016, 06:05 PM

33. lol nt

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:16 PM

2. The race will be called for Hillary the secong the polls close

 

She needs 78 delegates from June 7......
The SECOND she has them she is the presumptive nominee no matter if Bernie wins or not. He'd need to beat her with nearly 100 percent of all delegates and supers to steal the nom. Time to move on, it's ovah.

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Response to bravenak (Reply #2)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:42 PM

25. If he wins, that points to serious weakness in the general election

 

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Response to cali (Reply #25)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:48 PM

27. She beat Obama in CA last time, was Obama weak in the GE?

 

No, he was not.

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Response to bravenak (Reply #27)

Thu May 26, 2016, 06:22 PM

40. +1

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:16 PM

3. You do realize that other polls yesterday had Hillary up by significant numbers, don't you?

 

Besides, Hillary will have the nomination sewn up when the polls close in NJ well before they close in CA. CA would just be icing on the cake. Toss in DC and PR and Bernie will be only a dot in her rearview mirror.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:16 PM

4. That explains the trolls' efforts to say "it's over" every 5 minutes.

 

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Response to arcane1 (Reply #4)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:17 PM

6. Yes it does - You WIN!

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Response to arcane1 (Reply #4)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:17 PM

9. They are desperate and it is obvious

 

also they are using the superdelegates added to the count, which they are not supposed to.

Neither will get it.

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Response to nadinbrzezinski (Reply #9)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:49 PM

28. "not supposed to"????

Where is the rulebook and where does it say what one is "supposed" to do in these cases?

It may come as a shock to some, but no delegates vote before the convention. And when they vote, the super delegates get just as much say as the rest of the delegates.

This fabricated system where super delegates shouldn't be counted is pure fantasy. I wonder if the people parroting it realize that the super delegates will be at the convention and will be voting on the first ballot?

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Response to Corporate666 (Reply #28)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:51 PM

30. You should go have that argument with DWS

 

as much as I dislike her, she was correct when she told media to cut that shit up

Here you go

<iframe width="630" height="354" src="" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

They really do not count, until they vote... at the convention

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Response to arcane1 (Reply #4)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:18 PM

10. Yes, it does. They live in fear of losing California

Almost as scary as the FBI.

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Response to RufusTFirefly (Reply #10)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:52 PM

31. CA will be fun, in an evil way

 

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:17 PM

7. Bernie!!

 

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:17 PM

8. Even if Sanders were to win CA

How much more "awkward" would it be for Clinton than it was for Obama 8 years ago?

This place is a fantasyland.

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Response to LoverOfLiberty (Reply #8)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:18 PM

11. It Ain't over, till it's over

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Reply #11)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:22 PM

15. Non-answer

about as informational as your post.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:18 PM

12. California is 46% non-white

Not Sanders country to say the least. Sorry.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #13)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:23 PM

16. Lol, that Poll is old news from Monday. The op just told you about the latest poll

 

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Response to gravityspy (Reply #16)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:26 PM

18. Taken in the last few days.

 

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Response to gravityspy (Reply #16)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:40 PM

23. The SurveyUSA poll is newer data.

They ended at the same time. This one started a week earlier.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:22 PM

14. Clinton up 6 with Whites, 9 with Latinos, and only up 2 in the state? The internals don't compute.

 

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Response to CrowCityDem (Reply #14)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:26 PM

17. There are other breakdowns and demographics in California than just those two n/t

 

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Response to arcane1 (Reply #17)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:41 PM

24. 80% of CA is white and Latino. There isn't enough left in the other 20% to get to +2.

Unless you think that Sanders is heavily winning African Americans and Asians, but losing among whites and Latinos?

Not happening.

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Response to arcane1 (Reply #17)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:50 PM

29. Those groups, along with AAs, make up nearly 90% of the state.

 

There aren't enough Asian Americans and other assorted demographics to overcome being behind in the largest groups. Those numbers don't add up at all.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:28 PM

19. The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percentage points.

LOL!

Here's an opposing point of view:

http://abc7.com/politics/poll-clinton-poised-to-defeat-sanders-in-california-primary/1351808/

HILLARY CLINTON POISED TO DEFEAT BERNIE SANDERS IN CALIFORNIA'S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, SURVEYUSA POLL SHOWS

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Response to MADem (Reply #19)

Thu May 26, 2016, 06:07 PM

34. Plus the polling sample is..

552.

Outlier poll with a dash of mathematical "impossibilities" thrown into the mix.

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Response to LenaBaby61 (Reply #34)

Thu May 26, 2016, 06:09 PM

36. It's click bait, and a great "It Could Happen" lead-in for a 24 hour news station. nt

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:28 PM

20. He will win California UNLESS...

it becomes another NY or Az type thing where people are disenfranchised and/or thrown off of the voter rolls.

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Response to dana_b (Reply #20)

Thu May 26, 2016, 06:01 PM

32. Please, by all means ....

Show our Secretary of State Debra Bowen your proof of voter disenfranchisement in the Golden State where it concerns Bernie Sanders. She'd sure appreciate seeing the proof of what you say.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:30 PM

21. How is getting to 44% "erases 50-Point Deficit"

 

BernieMath(tm)

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Response to scscholar (Reply #21)

Thu May 26, 2016, 06:10 PM

37. I assume it's math.

19 pct - 69 pct down 50 pct
25 pct swing between two candidates which leaves us with...
44 pct - 44 pct tied and made up 50 pct deficit.

When you use flawed math to insult another Democractic party presidential candidate's 'math' you can easily wind up making yourself not only look more like a candidate's reality blinded worshiper, instead of supporter , but an ignorant to boot.

Just ask the question without the BernieMath crap. You'll look less like a fool if you happen to have made a simple math mistake and it's better for party unity after the primaries are over.

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Response to beardown (Reply #37)

Thu May 26, 2016, 06:12 PM

38. So you're counting every vote who switches, twice

 

That's disingenuous.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 05:30 PM

22. That poll has some obvious math errors.

290 White, 134 Latino, 125 Other, 549 Total

Whites: 47/41 Hillary +6
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary +9

"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, at least 60/40 or higher. The poll doesn't provide a breakdown, but there's no way Sanders is beating Clinton 60/40 with African Americans and Asians, who make up most of California's non-white/non-Latino 20%.

The crosstabs also don't match up. Household income, for example, matches, but the totals for college/noncollege show Hillary +5. Errors like this exist in many of the totals. They vary from the +2 indicated in the total to +7 or higher.

538 is basically treating it as an outlier, giving it less than 20% the weighting of the SurveyUSA poll from the same timeframe, which shows Hillary up 57/39.

Link to poll data: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 06:07 PM

35. I Still Predict Hillary +10 to 15 nt.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Original post)

Thu May 26, 2016, 06:12 PM

39. Btw - NPP voters need to ask for a Democratic ballot

poll workers are being trained wrong and told to give NPP provisional ballots which is WRONG

&feature=youtu.be

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