538:The system isn't rigged against Sanders

[bigdarryl]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-system-isnt-rigged-against-sanders/

[Betty Karlson]

1. Friday Comedy Hour started early this week...

[Cobalt Violet]

2. 538 is not a credible source of info

[bigdarryl]

3. Your delusional 538 has always been used on DU for reference and information

[Cobalt Violet]

6. They said she had a greater than 99% chance of winning Michigan.

One of my favorite DU moments was the morning after when Bernie won Michigan 50-48. That was the best. They've been very wrong about a lot of things this season. Better of going to a psychic.

[Dem2]

7. I hope you're never wrong about anything. Ever

You act like they took the polls too, that's just beyond the pale bitterness.

[rock]

14. Don't understand statistics?

Maybe you need an anecdote. My MIL once said to me, "The weatherman predicted a 99% chance of rain today, but not a drop. I guess he was wrong." She didn't understand statistics either. OTOH, Bernie semi-gets it. He thinks he still has a chance. Well, he does: the Martians may land and spirit Hillary away. Could happen.

[LoverOfLiberty]

17. You make a good point about Michigan

and then you totally discredit your post with the psychic comment.

[B Calm]

4. She's only winning because the DNC oligarchy gave her a 500+ super delegate lead

head start before the first vote was cast in Iowa. Oh yes, it was rigged from the get-go!

[Dem2]

8. It burns

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. They have made mistakes but they been the most accurate forecaster this year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J1qc0Qwj7ZtPZGyAsUUaH9HFCP0TTHuQx3Evkmh--t4/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=592576850

[Dem2]

16. So you're saying that polling + intelligence = more accurate result?

That's shocking. Better not let the oligarchy know about this heresy!

[boston bean]

9. No, she has won hundreds more pledged delegates and millions more popular votes.

Superdelegates have nothing to do with that fact.

[B Calm]

12. Sure, but you have to admit starting the primary with a 500+ super delegate didn't hurt. She

was shoved down our throats from the DNC oligarchy from the get-go.

[randome]

5. Math sometimes hurts, doesn't it?

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]

[Eric J in MN]

20. I could use projections to

...find I have a 100% chance to win the lottery.

It would be math, but not accurate math.

[FoxNewsSucks]

11. Strictly speaking, that is an accurate way to say it,

the system isn't rigged "against" Sanders or anyone else so much as it is rigged "FOR" establishment insiders.

[gollygee]

13. The Superdelegate system is a way of rigging the primary

That's the intent of them. However she is winning even without them, so that's irrelevant.

And I don't think closed primaries are rigged. There are legitimate reasons for choosing closed primaries, just as there are legitimate reasons for choosing open primaries. If you think closed primaries are rigged, then you'd really have to think caucuses are, because not very many people can participate in them. First of all, you have to be a registered Democrat (at least in Iowa - is it different elsewhere?) so it starts out just as closed as a closed primary. But then you also have to have the ability to physically remain at the caucus, and not everyone can do that. It requires much more time than just voting.

[Gothmog]

15. Good analysis by 538

[lagomorph777]

18. This just in from the Trump campaign: Trump is not an asshole.

Neither source is very credible.

[Eric J in MN]

19. Bogus projections.

Sanders got 23 net pledged delegates from the MN Caucus (he won with 62%.)

According to Harry Enten and Nate Silver, Clinton would have won MN if we had an open or closed primary and she'd have gotten 1 net delegate from MN in either case.

In real life, MN and WI are similar. Both gave Obama 53% against Romney.

Bernie Sanders won the Wisconsin Primary with 57%.

[Cheese Sandwich]

21. The whole system is rigged against working class people and candidates that represent us.

And not just talking about the elections.