"We may be just this screwed: Trump has an easier path to victory over Clinton than you think"

[imagine2015]

SALON
We may be just this screwed: Donald Trump has an easier path to victory than you think
Trump and Clinton share very high negatives. Hillary's may end up being harder to turn around
by Musa al-Gharbi
May 29, 2016


Nonetheless, the prevailing narrative is that while there is now a chance that Trump could actually win in November, it’s basically Hillary Clinton’s election to lose. Pundits focus on “fundamentals,” like Hillary’s superior fundraising, analytics, or ground game; however, these haven’t proven terribly predictive this cycle. And by focusing on conventional elements, analysts seem to be overlooking novel dynamics which are likely more important—specifically, the public’s persistent and negative perception of Hillary Clinton, the incumbency handicap, and a phenomenon I call “negative intersectionality.”

Both Trump and Clinton hold historically unprecedented unfavorable ratings among likely voters. Of the two, Clinton has held a slight edge—however, the gap between them has been rapidly closing. And here’s the kicker: While it is true that the public is very familiar with both Trump and Clinton due to their decades-long careers in public life, Trump has been in the limelight primarily as a businessman and entertainer. People are just now discovering “Trump the politician”—and as a result, their views on Trump as a politician are malleable. The Clinton team views this as an opportunity, and are attempting to define him before he gets a chance to define himself. However, the flip side is that while Trump’s numbers are currently low, there is a real opportunity for him to radically change public perception for the better. And he has tasked Paul Manafort with this responsibility—a man who, after orchestrating Ronald Reagan’s landslide victories, went on to build a highly successful career rehabilitating the image of dictators and strongmen. He’s made for this job. Expect Trump’s numbers to rise.

Hillary’s numbers are unlikely to follow the same trajectory—because not only do people know her well, but they know her specifically as a politician. It is precisely her perceived cynicism and duplicity as a politician that drive her unfavorable rating. Public opinion of Clinton has been on a steady decline since December 2012, and a brutal, negative campaign is unlikely to shift the numbers in her favor. In other words, Clinton will have a much harder time turning around her bad image than Trump.

.... in many ways, the Democratic primary has been a referendum on Bill Clinton’s tenure—and many of his signature achievements, championed by Hillary Clinton at the time, don’t look so great in retrospect. From NAFTA, the repeal of Glass-Steagall, Wall Street deregulation, welfare reform, DOMA (the Defense of Marriage Act), “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”—and of course, the infamous crime bills—despite Bill Clinton’s success at restoring the Democratic Party to national prominence, primary voters have taken an increasingly critical view of his legacy. This effect will be even more pronounced among Independent and Republican voters.

Trump recognizes the opportunity here, and has already demonstrated an intention to hammer Hillary Clinton not only on her support of NAFTA—but to even undermine her feminist narratives by highlighting the genuinely disturbing sexual assault accusations against Bill Clinton, and the role that Hillary Clinton played in attempting to discredit and silence alleged victims. Again, in the current cultural and historical moment, voters seem unlikely to provide the same benefit of doubt that was afforded the Clintons in the ’90s.

Read the complete article at:
http://www.salon.com/2016/05/29/we_may_be_just_this_screwed_donald_trump_has_an_easier_path_to_victory_than_you_think/

[hill2016]

1. which is why Bernie needs to concede next week so that we can unite

against Trump

[markbark]

2. Er...

"which is why ̶B̶e̶r̶n̶i̶e̶ ̶ Hillary needs to concede next week so that we can unite"

There -- fixed that for ya.
You're welcome.

[bahrbearian]

4. If there only some way for Her to Bring Him to Heel!

[Hydra]

13. Team Hill said we weren't needed or wanted

Did the wind change or something? Or was she caught committing a major crime?

Just need to know why the the most qualified candidate ever(TM) is sweating over a person who is literally unqualified for the office.

[lumberjack_jeff]

3. Exactly, what do you think Sanders supporters have been on about?

Clinton's wins in South Carolina, Alabama, Texas and Mississippi mean exactly nothing. In fact, nominating a candidate based on their appeal to the tiny minority of voters who are democrats in those states is a recipe for disaster.

A week or so ago, there was an OP about suggestions on reforming the nomination process that would actually make the problem worse.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2064539

[stevenleser]

5. This article is hilarious. Talk to any 10 Latinos and see if you can find more than one that

will even consider in the remotest possible circumstances voting for Trump.

That's the election right there.

[riderinthestorm]

7. I do. Regularly with work and when canvassing for Bernie (over 1000 homes)

As a Spanish speaker I was regularly sent to Latino neighborhoods. There are certainly Trump supporters there. They like his immigration message. They waited their turn legally and aren't thrilled with "line jumpers".

[stevenleser]

8. Congrats, you found an outlying concentration. It doesn't change the facts.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/5/2/1521374/-Donald-Trump-has-pathetic-single-digit-favorability-and-a-record-deficit-among-Latino-voters

[riderinthestorm]

9. Your post said not one in 10 Latinos would support Trump. My anecdotes say that's wrong

Others think Trump's support hovers in the solid 25% range.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/donald-trump-latino-voters_us_573c62d2e4b0646cbeeb8c16

He got as high as 45% Latino support in NV even with 2 other Latinos in the race (Cruz and Rubio).

I think we minimize his Latino support at our peril.

[stevenleser]

10. And you go from outlying concentration to outlying poll. Doesnt change the facts.

[riderinthestorm]

11. Shrug. Ignore it at your peril.

Good luck getting Hillary over the finish line. Sincerely.

I'm not in a swing state so when Bernie’s out I get to watch the spectacle unfettered.

[Hydra]

14. Thanks for the info, disturbing as it is

Team Hill has a simple way of dealing with facts they don't like though- they ignore them.

[Jesus Malverde]

16. Pretending any minority group is without diversity in political opinion

Is a stereotype. I agre with your assessment.

[SheenaR]

15. My experiences are similar here in the Northeast to the poster above

The Hispanics want illegal immigration to stop. And the ones living here are very prejudiced against Mexicans and get a kick out of when Trump rails on them. They went through the proper channels. And they feel Trump is the best one to get reform done in this area. I have had many arguments with some of my Hispanic friends at work about this. The notion that every minority group is going to run away from him is naive.

[doc03]

6. Why do Democrats allow Republicans to put the blame for

NAFTA on Democrats and Bill Clinton? The Democrats voted NAFTA down in the House and Senate. It was the Republicans that passed NAFTA and it was GHWB's bill to start with. I don't know but I have heard that if Bill Clinton wouldn't have signed it it would have gone into effect anyway.

[Waiting For Everyman]

12. A strong analysis, and it didn't even include the email fiasco.

Add that in, and it spells DOOM! Those who laugh that away are torching their own futures.

The most basic problem though, is this, because it goes to who she is. And who she is might have been fine in an earlier time, but it is exactly what people don't want in this elections cycle:

Worse still, this avowed expertise, when paired with her modest and highly technical proposals, positions her as the consummate insider in an election cycle where people across the political spectrum seem hungry for an anti-establishment revolutionary. And while the Clinton campaign is still trying to figure out how to best define Trump (most recently insisting that he is not a “normal” candidate, failing to understand that many voters will see this as a positive), her interlocutor has no such problems: “Crooked Hillary” is simple but effective, hitting her right where she’s weakest.

I highly recommend the whole article too.