2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThis is what happens when a candidate clinches a majority of pledged and overall delegates
They clinch the nomination and get declared the winner, period. Reality does not ask the loser to sign off. No one cares what the loser has to say at that point.
riversedge
(70,092 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)It was a great day when he won the WH. That's what matters. If she's nominee what that means is she and her ardent supporters have 'won' the right to great responsibility and lots of hard work.
Tarc
(10,472 posts)You don't look ahead to the next race before wrapping up the current one.
Btw, how's that # of hides comparison workin out for ya?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)and supports the presumptive nominee
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)He'll wait until he's completely berned into cinders, and blows away with the wind.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)When there were no longer any competitors. Hillary could have taken it to the convention, at which point anything could have happened. Although most likely, Obama would have won on the first any only vote.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)It made sense for her to drop out. There was no question as to how the convention vote would play out.
There are too many unknowns this year for it to be as certain.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)But the criminal investigation shadow following HIllary, especially since the release of the damning State OIG report, her high unfavorables and poor polling vis a vis trumpy, support Bernie playing it out until official.
A lot can and will happen from June 7 to July 23.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)To the rest of the world, he'll be King Canute trying to order back the sea.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)I just don't see how her supporters don't understand how very real her problem is.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)The likelihood of an indictment is vanishingly small
morningfog
(18,115 posts)No matter how baked they are. If she is indicted (highly doubtful) or some from her inner circle are indicted (quite possible), she is good and well screwed and would have screwed the Democratic Party in the process.
Neither you nor anyone other than the FBI and DOJ on the case have any idea of the likelihood of indictment. There is simply no way to know until the results are made public.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)While there is "top-secret" information that should not be shared, Obama said there is also material "being presented to the president or the secretary of State, that you might not want on the transom, or going out over the wire, but is basically stuff that you could get in open-source."
Obama also said, "I continue to believe that she has not jeopardized Americas national security."
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Obama has said he hasn't been briefed on the FBI criminal investigation.
While he is most likely right that national security has not been jeopardized, that says nothing with respect to other criminal statute violations, for which there is at least some evidence. With what is in the public, it is not likely that anyone will be prosecuted for the security issue.
With what is in the public, I am less sure on the felony of destruction of federal records. And Obama said nothing on that.
And who knows what the FBI may have found in those destroyed emails. There could be any number of issues at play.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)hobbit709
(41,694 posts)PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)hobbit709
(41,694 posts)PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)msanthrope
(37,549 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)I'll learn of it the same time that you do.
Gothmog
(144,944 posts)Great article on how in every primary contest since the creation of super delegates, the winner was declared the presumptive nominee based on the inclusion of super delegates. http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/29/1532358/-What-Does-It-Mean-to-Clinch-the-Nomination-When-Superdelegates-Are-Involved
?1464557557
The answer: history says the first person to get to the magic number is the presumptive nominee, and says it unambiguously, even if the losers often disagree.
Heres how it has gone since the superdelegates were added to the process.....
Summary
Anyway, I started this research 12 hours ago to answer a question for myself, so that as everyone on TV is spinning things this way and that on June 7th I have some context. What, if anything, have I learned?
First, most non-incumbent candidates have needed superdelegates to win, and the history of superdelegates has been that once a Democrat hits the magic number and becomes the nominee, superdelegates are more likely to flow to the nominee than from them.
Also, in the history of the superdelegates, they have always ended up supporting the decision of the pledged delegates, and their most important contribution has been to amplify leads of the pledged delegate winner so that they can be assured success on a first ballot, and avoid the sort of messy convention that harms a general campaign.
The major thing Ive learned is that the press declares, and has always declared, the winner after they hit the magic number, and has done so in far more nebulous circumstances than this. Even in 1984, in which Hart won by a number of other metrics, in which the delegate count was the arbiter, and Mondale announced himself as the nominee, even with 38 percent of the popular vote to Harts 36 percenteven then, Hart may have claimed he still had a cunning plan, but no one begrudged Mondale the fact he was, for all intents and purposes, the nominee.
When you think about it, that simply has to happen. Things need to get done, and they need the nominee to do them. Except for Reagan in 1976, who chose a running mate after Gerald Ford was made the nominee, there arent a whole lot of non-nominee candidates going to the convention with their own vice president picked out. You get to do that because the numbers say youre the nominee.
Meeting this number also allows the nominee to do the work of campaigning before the convention, establishing a message, building capacity on the ground, etc.
The press, for its part, has always understood this, from 1984 onward, and has named the nominee (or the presumptive nominee) the minute the candidate crosses the line with their combination of pledged and supers, and usually said something to the effect that they had clinched the nomination. They did that when Mondale had won far fewer states than Hart. They did that when Dukakis did not have 50 percent of the pledged delegates. They did that when Obama had not won the popular vote (yes, I know, MichiganI hope were still not fighting this?).
This is a well researched article and confirms that the nomination process will be over on Tuesday June 7, 2016 when the results of the New Jersey primary are announced.
Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
rbrnmw
(7,160 posts)bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)fight on our hands. Because Supers should not exist.