How the Democratic Race Will Probably End

[Tarc]

Nate Cohn

Hillary Clinton will be declared the presumptive nominee for president by the news media, probably on Tuesday after the results in New Jersey. It will happen even if she loses every remaining contest, and it will probably happen before the polls even close in California (no doubt igniting the fury of some Bernie Sanders supporters).

How is she going to clinch?

Mrs. Clinton has 2,310 delegates, according to The Associated Press, putting her just 73 short of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination. She will cover at least half the distance this weekend, when Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands hold caucuses worth a combined 79 delegates. She would then go over the top with New Jersey, not long after 8 p.m. on Tuesday, as Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight has pointed out. The state is worth 142 delegates, and Mrs. Clinton will be awarded many of them when the polls close.

Isn’t she winning only because of superdelegates?

Yes and no. Yes, those 2,310 delegates include superdelegates. But no, she’s not winning because of superdelegates. In fact, superdelegates are basically Mr. Sanders’s only hope at this stage. (Many would have to change their minds.)

A reality check this morning.

[tonyt53]

1. Oh that pesky math when it doesn't work in Bernie's favor.

[Zambero]

2. Hillary won most of the late primary races in 2008

Including California. Anyone recall who who still came out ahead at the finish line? And guess who won the election convincingly despite 24/7 Birtherism, Rev. Wright sound bytes, Bill Ayres, et al?

[Tarc]

4. Er, the difference there was that Obama was ahead the entire time

While 2008-era Hillary was consistently behind, trying to play catch-up, and winning late-but-meaningless primaries.

Sound familiar?

[geek tragedy]

3. Clinton will be declared and accepted as the winner of the Democratic party on the evening of June 7

by the entire rational world.

People can quibble whether the appropriate time is 8:00 PM EST or 11:00 PM EST, but that's about the only issue re: timing.