Maddow does the math: A Clinton clinch may be close

[Surya Gayatri]

Rachel Maddow gives viewers a heads up about how close Hillary Clinton is to clinching the Democratic nomination and how an accounting of super delegates combined with the outcomes from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could put her over the top sooner than many people realize.

[B Calm]

1. Still using super delegate math.

[eastwestdem]

4. Because the supers are totally going to go for Sanders at the convention?

Please enlighten us on how this will happen.

[SheenaR]

7. My guess would be when the roll is called for each state

They can cast their vote for whoever the strongest GE candidate is without an FBI investigation pending. There's one way.

[eastwestdem]

21. Look at a list of the super delegates. The vast majority are loyal party members and office holders

who owe their very existence as candidates to the DNC and its help in getting them elected. It's going to take much more than very unlikely legal troubles to sway them. Remember even if the FBI finds something, it's just a report that then has to be dealt with by the JOD. Democratic loyalists are so used to anti-Clinton smears, that this is nothing new, and if anything gives many of us motivation to 'stick it to the right'. The Benghazi committee admitting their was nothing there, also helps bolster the spirits of the Democratic establishment. Sanders people are grasping at rapidly dwindling straws.

[geek tragedy]

22. They can also nominate Stannis Baratheon, first of his name,

true King of the Andals and the First Men, while we're playing with fantasy scenarios.

[imagine2015]

14. We don't know how the superdelegates will vote at the convention. They are not pledged.

They can vote for anyone including a candidate other than the one they indicated a preference for last year or anytime since.

I hope this basic fact enlightens you.

Case Closed.

Any questions?

[eastwestdem]

18. So those that have already pledged to Hillary don't mean a thing?

Most rational people know that Democratic office holders and other dignitaries, who make up the super delegates are already predisposed to vote for a well-liked and known Democratic candidate. Sanders has shown a dislike for the party, the DNC, and many of it's members. His supporters have routinely harassed these members. There is no way that he will ever get a majority of supers. If for some reason he is holding out for an indictment (which is not going to happen), he could always just 'suspend' his campaign, so he is ready to re-enter and fight with Biden for the nomination in that case. He wouldn't lose anything.

The reason that super delegates pledge to one candidate in advance of the convention is so people will know what to expect, and can plan accordingly. Who will speak and when? Should the DNC make a 'this is your life' video of Sanders or Clinton? Who should be looking for a running mate? There are many question that need to be answered before the convention, so by the super delegates pledging, things can run smoothly.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

9. Because they count, which is why Bernie was trying so hard

To get them to go against popular opinion. Glad he didn't succeed at that.

[Tarc]

12. As opposed to #berniemath, yes

The problem with Sanders fans is they treat superdelegates like a mythical group that is going to come to their rescue at the 1th hour, like some mystical elves riding down from the forests. In reality, these are actual people who have already expressed their choice.

June 7th. Be prepared.

[NCTraveler]

2. Maddow is so smart and savvy.

I really wish I could tolerate the format of her show. Actually, I wish she would change the format of her show. lol.

She really is a breath of fresh air in a sea of crap.

[Surya Gayatri]

11. Agree about the show's format. Sometimes, the dramatic "storytelling"

gets a bit tedious.

[NCTraveler]

13. She really nails great points. nt.

[eastwestdem]

3. Even without super delegates, isn't she pretty close to clinching a majority of pledged delegates?

The numbers keep changing each day, but either way you'd think that her opponent would realize that his end (as a presidential candidate) has come. By all means, keep talking about your issues, but do so in a way that doesn't divide people.

[Surya Gayatri]

8. "..you'd think that her opponent would realize that his end (as a presidential candidate) has come."

You'd think that if you were a rational realist, but if you're a fanatical follower, not so much.

[eastwestdem]

10. Good point. nt

[imagine2015]

15. Clinton may windup with more pledged delegates but that won't be enough to win the nomination.

Clinton needs 2,383 pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. She will fall several hundred delegates short of that number.

That's what makes it a contested convention.

The free agent superdelegates can vote for a candidate other than the one they may have endorsed last year or since.

They are not pledged or otherwise committed to vote for a candidate they indicated a preference for before the national convention.

[oberliner]

16. It's not contested if the supers have already announced their intention to vote Hillary

It would be contested if Bernie won the pledged delegate total by some small amount but the supers were going for Hillary.

[Sheepshank]

5. I think she will cinch it all very soon too

She has taken nothing fro granted and has campaigned, long and hard and is currently running two campaigns. It must be exhausting, but again, nothing for granted earning every vote, including the SD votes

[Surya Gayatri]

6. Her perseverance and boundless energy are an inspiration...

[SheenaR]

20. Her campaign literally came out months back

saying she took Bernie too lightly from the start.

Not questioning her effort and work ethic. Both our candidates have been incredible with their energy.

But Bernie was definitely taken lightly and for granted early on.

[Gothmog]

17. It would only take a few dozen super delegates announcing to get this over with

If this happens this weekend or on Monday, then Tuesday will be a breeze

[imagine2015]

19. Maddow's math conveniently overlooks the unpledged voting status of superdelegates

Clinton won't have enough elected pledged delegates to clinch the nomination before the convention making her the so-called "presumptive" nominee.

That's a fact no matter how much Clinton supporters may falsely claim the superdelegates have selected her to be the Democratic party candidate for president.

All of the superdelegates enter the convention as "free agents" and are not pledged or committed by the convention rules to vote for a candidate they may have indicated a preference for prior to the convention.

Has Maddow pointed out that hard nomination fact or is she conveniently overlooking it?

[highprincipleswork]

23. Fine line between eagerness and desperation. And clearly, with instructions from the DNC not to

include superdelegates, the not so fine line between responsible journalism and blatant propaganda peddling has long since been crossed.

[Maru Kitteh]

24. K&R