2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders statement June 4: "The election is not over on June 7th. No candidate can declare victory"
"The election is not all over on Tuesday night. At the end of the nominating process no candidate will have enough pledged delegates to call the campaign a victory. Super delegates make their final decision on who to support at the convention on July 25th. Super delegates can and have changed their candidate choice in the past. In other words the Democratic convention will be a contested convention."
DNC Communications Director: Superdelegates "are likely to change their minds on who to vote for"
Luis Miranda also said CNN and other media should not include the super delegates in the vote totals before the convention because they have not voted and can change their minds before the convention.
Luis Miranda, Communications Director, Democratic National Committee
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Lots of campaigning still to be done. It will now be focused on just 700 votes.
One can just imagine Bill will be burning up the phone lines.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Obama and Kerry were declared the presumptive nominee based on pledged + super delegates, before the convention.
This is how it works.
Jack Bone
(2,023 posts)That ain't happening in 2016...
We're Philly Bound!!
Tarc
(10,476 posts)3 days from presumptive nominee status.
12 days til the DU sees a new ruleset enforced.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Jack Bone
(2,023 posts)dream on....
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)2012 wasn't contested and in 2008 Clinton suspended her campaign after Obama promised to help her pay campaign debts.
Sanders will not beg for help from the establishment as a condition to support Secretary Clinton should she capture the nomination.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)When a candidate reaches the threshold of pledged delegates + super endorsements, she (see what I did there?) is declared the presumptive nominee.
BzaDem
(11,142 posts)He will either concede shortly after Hillary clinches (yes, including superdelegates), or he will just disappear once the media declares the race over.
Jack Bone
(2,023 posts)BzaDem
(11,142 posts)After all, they declared Obama the victor despite a much slimmer lead, and despite the fact that Hillary had not conceded.
Funny how things work -- sometimes, you actually don't get what you want.
Jack Bone
(2,023 posts)Big Difference!
Difference Matters!
BzaDem
(11,142 posts)Are you saying they were able to look into the future?
Jack Bone
(2,023 posts)I'm not MSNBC in 2008...I couldn't tell ya..maybe Snuffluffagus over @ ABC called up his ol boss and got the skinny...Carville @ CNN...i dunno
This year...it ain't happening...unless maybe if he gets blown out in CA...and that's not gonna happen
BzaDem
(11,142 posts)Jack Bone
(2,023 posts)Please read the OP...you'll find your answer.
I guess YOUR opinion is more important than theirs.
Carry on...
bvf
(6,604 posts)predict a sunrise.
One Black Sheep
(458 posts)This way, he can put more pressure for concessions and get just about everything he wants, even if he isn't able to get the nomination, for example, maybe he wants to head the DNC, or has someone in mind who he wants as head of the DNC, and an agreement to wipe out super delegates in the nominating process in the future, have the party adopt his policies and Hillary will promise to campaign for them - such as $15 dollar min wage, etc. etc.
This is great news, Bernie is an incredible fighter for the people, he doesn't give up.
Segami
(14,923 posts)CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)e.g., MSNBC To the deniers... Watch THIS Video... It is not comforting to think that she may well be the Democratic Nominee...
Hillary really betrayed Andrea Mitchell... The entire context of this report was of a solemn nature... A Funeral so to speak...
Andrea Mitchell "I do not see this report as ...ANYTHING BUT... DEVASTATING!"
Chuck Todd "After this I don't think that she could get confirmed for Attorney General!"
Lots of FIBBING by Hillary here.. for more than a year!
eastwestdem
(1,220 posts)don't seem to mind.
jillan
(39,451 posts)Enough of the lie that they are included in the delegate total.
They are NOT!
One Black Sheep
(458 posts)what a lot of Hillary supporters aren't getting, or are in denial about, is that Bernie's stance has multiple benefits and advantages, one is that it allows more time for the FBI to finish their investigation, and perhaps there will be breaking news on that front by the time the convention rolls around, or some other new Clinton scandal blows up, and the super delegates will have little choice but to change their mind and switch to Bernie if they don't want a fatally wounded and sure loss candidate in the general election...
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Doesn't that seem to run counter to his stance on super delegates?
One Black Sheep
(458 posts)doesn't mean he has to like the game, but he has to play by the rules.
I'm sure if Bernie becomes president, super delegates will be wiped out or lessened to a huge degree...but he has to get the nomination first.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Has been since 1984. Will be until superdelegates get abolished.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Whether that is Bernie or Hillary.
anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)is the criteria the media has always used in the past. When she passes this threshold, she will be declared the presumptive nominee (not the nominee, which - you are correct - happens after the official vote during the convention). At that point, she will receive endorsements from many democratic big wigs, including current and former presidents and VPs. The media will, of course, cover these events heavily. They will focus almost entirely on Trump v. Clinton, and Sanders will be pushed into the background, only receiving coverage if he makes some wild demand...and only then because of the humor value. In a couple of weeks, should he decide to continue his campaign, you will almost never hear about him from any news outlet. Most of his traveling press corps will be reassigned. While Hillary will not yet be the nominee (much like Trump is not yet the repub nominee), she will be for all practical purposes.
jillan
(39,451 posts)voted on July 25th. The supers do not count until they have voted on July 25th.The supers do not count until they have voted on July 25th.The supers do not count until they have voted on July 25th.The supers do not count until they have voted on July 25th.The supers do not count until they have voted on July 25th.
Did I get that into your head?
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)Hillary will be the presumptive nominee on Tuesday.
From your little tantrum, it sounds like you might need some pharmacologic help. You still have time to see your doctor for a prescription on Monday.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Superdelegate endorsements always are counted when determining a presumptive nominee. It's been that way since 1984, and as long as superdelegates still exist it will continue to be that way.
BTW are you also complaining about the media declaring that Trump has secured the Republican nomination? He doesn't have quite enough pledged delegates alone to get there yet. It's based on unpledged delegates (yes Republicans have those too) having said they'll vote for him at the convention. That's exactly the same as counting superdelegate endorsements for the Democratic race.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)The person who has the most of them ought to be the nominee.
I would think that someone opposed to the concept of super delegates (as Bernie seems to be) would agree with that.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)For a person who prides himself on running a principled campaign, this approach seems somewhat less than principled.
jillan
(39,451 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)That seems to run counter to his beliefs.
RandySF
(58,655 posts)Renew Deal
(81,851 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)In fact the same exact rules that were there in 2008 when she ran and lost.
Renew Deal
(81,851 posts)But reality will become very obvious next week.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Obama couldn't win the nomination with pledged delegates alone. But nobody waited until the convention vote on August 27 to consider him the winner.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)seabeyond
(110,159 posts)really is even any grown up throwing a fit about this, let alone your "leader".
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)These are the same rules as in 08. When Obama reached a majority on June 3, he needed superdelegates to get over the top. He was announced by all the media outlets as the presumptive nominee at that point. Nobody said he had to wait until the convention vote on August 27 before he could be considered the winner.
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)The election finishes on the 14th, in DC. However, Clinton will be able to declare victory on the 7th, probably before the votes have even finished being counted; all that will be left is to determine the margin of victory.
Whether the Democratic primary is technically "contested" is, of course, up to Sanders, but if it is, it will be a contest whose outcome is forordained.
Response to imagine2015 (Original post)
MFM008 This message was self-deleted by its author.
senz
(11,945 posts)She wants to be the "presumptuous" nominee?
No, she'll have to play by the rules.
The superdelegates vote on July 25. Then we'll know who the nominee is.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)And they are trying to count chickens before they hatch!
Not a smart thing to do.
MFM008
(19,803 posts)this is better.....................
for the difficult Sanderscience
B Calm
(28,762 posts)MFM008
(19,803 posts)heres some
57 delegates. needed
June 7............AP will call it, shes the presumptive nominee
June 14........... D.C votes last place..will go for Hillary
June 16............ DU returns to Trump as the Target
Use above device for any additional questions.
As of 5/31/16, Hillary Clinton had 1770 pledged delegates and Bernie Sanders had 1500 pledged delegates.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
Hillary needs 613 more delegates to reach 2383. There are only 781 pledged delegates left in the remaining nine primaries: Virgin Islands, PR, CA Mont NJ, NM, ND SD, DC
Because the candidates' totals are so close, it is extremely unlikely that either candidate can reach 2383 pledged delegates from the primaries alone.
The remainder will have to be supplied by superdelegates. The superdelegates do not vote until July 25.
Therefore, we will not have a nominee until the superdelegates vote on July 25th.
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)it's not your place to speak.
It's over. DU Bernie diehards are the last Japanese soldiers.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)In 60 minutes she makes as much money from her Wall Street pals as five working class people do an entire year!
And she's going to represent working folks like us on DU if she wins the nomination and somehow becomes President.
If she wins, Clinton can go back to Wall Street for their victory parade!
No ticker tape parade. They could shower Clinton with money and she doesn't even have to give them a victory speech!
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)I'm sure it means nothing to you that millions of middle class Americans have their futures invested on Wall Street. Or that traders and bankers are also American citizens. I'm sure you live a monastically pure ascetic life of pious Marxist purity.
It's over. But keep on whining.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)I almost feel sorry for you.
mmmmmmm
No I don't!
"that traders and bankers are also American citizens"
Right.
Corporations are people too with free speech rights.
Is that a conservative Republican talking point that's been embraced by "moderate centrist" Democrats?
Gothmog
(145,046 posts)In every past contested Democratic primary, the presumptive winner was announced by the press based on super delegates. President Obama was correct in making this call and it will be appropriate for Hillayr Clinton to also make this call
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History is a good thing and Sanders does not get special treatment that is different from all past contested democratic primaries