Pledged delegates and super delegates follow different rules

[hellofromreddit]

Lumping their counts together clearly distorts reality. So why do so many in media and around here do it?

Peer pressure. Good old peer pressure. "Look, everyone else knows what's up, why would us insist on being a loser, bub?" It happened way back when Hillary had hundreds of supers before even Iowa. She was "inevitable." It happened again in NH. "The clear front runner." And it just piled on in state after state since. "Call it."

The DNC has directly told the media not to include supers in the counts. But that didn't stop them.

Relevant video:

We can't control the media or the campaigns, but we can control ourselves. So how about y'all stop lying in your OPs? Nobody around here buys it.

[Agnosticsherbet]

1. A history of counting Super-Delegates. An informative read with links to verify.

http://m.dailykos.com/stories/1532358

[Agnosticsherbet]

10. Ah, you didn't read it. So, facts are bad, I guess.

[hellofromreddit]

9. "Ultimately we should expect similar this time around. But it’s been a crazy election so who knows."

Not terribly conclusive. What am I supposed to get from that?

[Exilednight]

14. I know people that every time they pick up a hammer they use it wrong and smash their thumb.

Just because you do the same thing every day, doesn't mean you're doing right.

[SFnomad]

2. So now BS cheerleaders are quoting the DNC ... that's rich n/t

[hellofromreddit]

4. Name calling?

[MadBadger]

11. Do you even know what the fuck name calling is?

[hellofromreddit]

16. Is this your method of elevating the discussion? You have not impressed me.

[MadBadger]

18. I have no interest in elevating this discussion.

[hellofromreddit]

20. I have noticed that, yes.

[SFnomad]

15. Where? A little touchy, eh? Can't refute the message, so attack the messenger, eh? n/t

[hellofromreddit]

21. What was the message? I saw only a smartass comment.

[SFnomad]

23. So now namecalling and attacking the messenger and you still don't have a reply for the message n/t

[hellofromreddit]

24. You did not answer. What was the message you claim I ignored?

[SFnomad]

27. Try re-reading my original post ... maybe you could figure it out n/t

[hellofromreddit]

33. I re-read it. It got more stupid. Now what?

[SFnomad]

38. Maybe find another BS cheerleader that can help you out ... it really is pretty clear n/t

[hellofromreddit]

39. Thanks for kicking the thread, but I'm going to stop playing with you now.

[SFnomad]

40. And that's about all you've sunk to, "playing with" and thread kicks, a sad end to the campaign

And somebody just recently kicked the thread, so it's not like this post will do much

[geek tragedy]

3. The only ones distorting reality are those who claim

we won't have a presumptive nominee after all 50 states have voted and one candidate has a large and decisive lead in all categories of delegates.

[hellofromreddit]

5. Well, I'm not making that claim. So what's your point?

[annavictorious]

8. So you are conceding that Clinton will be the presumptive nominee Tuesday at 8 pm?

[hellofromreddit]

13. As long as her pledged delegate lead holds, sure.

If her lead slips, it puts us closer to a contested convention, so no presumptive nominee.

[LiberalFighter]

34. How much closer would it need to be?

[geek tragedy]

12. Math means either super delegates get excluded

from or included in both the numerator and the denominator for setting a benchmark for determining a winner.

Exclude them? Fine, the pledged number is 2026

Include them? Fine, the number of pledged plus unpledged is 2383.

Either way, Clinton is the winner and presumptive nominee as of Tuesday. And she will be in charge of the DNC as well as the convention as of Wednesday.

[hellofromreddit]

19. Hillary will not be the "presumptive nominee" until she has more than 2383 certain votes.

Supers aren't certain by any stretch. Going by the old meaning of presumptive--absolutely will be the nominee no matter what. Until she hits that mark, it's possible (even if exceedingly unlikely) that she will not make it. No matter how you count.

She won't break 2383 pledged delegates on Tuesday.

[geek tragedy]

25. Those of us who have followed more than one primary know

better.

Presumptive means the candidate who is the winner of the primary. That person will be Hillary Clinton just like it was Barack Obama in 2008. In both cases, one candidate won the pledged delegates but hit the overall delegate number with superdelegates.

Starting on Wesnesday, Hillary is in charge and Bernie has no pretense of claiming to have equal status.

The crap Bernie is feeding his followers is self-serving bullshit. As of Tuesday he will be the second place finisher and will have zero chance of being the nominee, and that is how he will be treated.

After Tuesday, he's no longer on the big stage, because losers don't stay on the stage.

[hellofromreddit]

32. I know you really like calling him a loser, but that doesn't make Hillary the presumptive nominee

Second place at 45%+ is not the same thing as second place at 0%.

[geek tragedy]

36. Obama was the presumptive nominee in 2008

and he had a much smaller lead.

Bernie followers can stick their fingers in their ears, cover their eyes and stamp their feet, won't change the fact that Clinton will be the presumptive nominee according to everyone outside the inner core of the Bernie Bubble.

You don't get to impose your weird alternate reality on everyone else.

His status will stop being even superficially equal to hers as of Tuesday.

She will be the winner, and he will be the loser, because voters chose her over him.

[hellofromreddit]

37. I have never claimed that Hillary won't win. But the delegate math game has been dishonest.

Cool it with your straw man shtik.

[geek tragedy]

41. The delegate math game is exactly has it has been in every election

where a man was in the position Hillary is.

They are not going to impose a different set of standards for Hillary because Bernie is a stubborn sore loser.

You all are the ones trying to rewrite the rules, so to hell with your bizarro claims that treating the woman like we treated the men is dishonest.

[onenote]

31. actually that's exactly what she'll be

And the presumption will grow stronger every day thereafter that Sanders doesn't announce any supers changing their commitments and/or that previously unpledged delegates announce their support for Clinton. The presumption will weaken if supers start switching and will cease to be a presumption at all on the day when enough have switched so that Clinton doesn't have a combined total of pledged and supers of 2383 -- a day, by the way, that there currently is no indication will ever happen.

[Demsrule86]

6. Maybe today or maybe tomorrow

Hillary is the presumptive nominee...at the convention...she becomes the official nominee and that is how the process works.

[MineralMan]

17. The DNC can't tell news media what to do.

The government can't either. We have this "free press" thing in the United States. Our media doesn't take orders from political parties or government officials, except in very narrow circumstances.

Expect the media to report as it thinks best. Anyone can look up the actual numbers. Here's a good site for that:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

[hellofromreddit]

22. What the media thinks is best is a piss-poor standard unless yo think Iraq turned out well.

The DNC didn't just say it--they explained why it's stupid to mix up the two. Watch the video.

[MineralMan]

26. See, the thing is that I don't get to tell them anything either.

If I like, though, I can publish my own writings very easily and do as I please, too. The reality is that I have steadily been reporting only pledged delegate counts and never combined with Super Delegates. Here's today's thread where I discuss pledged delegates on DU. Until the convention, they are the only ones that are locked in. That's what I've been reporting all along:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512128467

DU is part of the media, and I'm part of DU.

Different outlets handle things in different ways. That's the nature of a free press. You can publish your stuff here or on Reddit or anywhere else on the Internet. If enough people are interested in what you have to say, you will have some influence.

The DNC does not get to tell me, the AP, the New York Times, CNN or anyone else how to report the news. We have a free press. Read or watch the outlets you prefer.

[hellofromreddit]

35. I never claimed that everyone should follow orders. I said conflating delegates is dishonest.

That the media, DU, you, and anyone else continue to munge the very different delegates counts into one number doesn't mean it's not a stupid and dishonest thing to do.

[MineralMan]

42. But, see, I've never done that.

I'm always about the pledged delegate count. You seem to be confused. Did you click the link I posted?

[tonyt53]

29. For Bernie to think that the very people he has insulted will now switch to him is piss poor

And stupid.

[onenote]

28. The media reports it that way because it reflects reality at the time its reported

And when and if that reality changes, the changes will be reported.

[Tarc]

30. This is how 2004 and 2008 went. 2016 will see it as well.

Hillary could become the presumptive nominee in ~15 minutes if Bernie flames out in Puerto, but it is more likely that it will happen in 2 days once the NJ results are posted.

This is the reality of politics.