Rove on Fox Giving a Spin on Ohio Early Voting Sunday Night on Lou Dobbs

[JCMach1]

As a rule, I DO NOT watch Fox, but I braved the channel change last night just to see the reality distortion going on in Romney land. Having not watched it in years I was shocked at how far from reality they were.

Why I am posting though is Karl Rove was on giving that stats that there was only a 98k gap between Democratic and Republican early voters. His argument was if that margin held and people voted in a similar breakdown Romney would take Ohio.

Someone else can talk me down too, but after a little research, I uncovered that if someone doesn't vote in the primaries they are moved to Unaffiliated. That means there is a huge block of voters in Ohio in that category (almost half). While that would also include some Republicans, there would also be many Democratic votes there (if not the bulk).

So is that the lie Rove was spreading? Or, is there something to his argument?

[OBAMAWILLWIN]

1. Rove is grasping at straws

because he knows that Ohio is going to be won by OBAMA!!!!!!

[TroyD]

2. The Romney Campaign reports that it has wiped out the advantage Obama had in 08

It says Democrats are down around 250,000 in OH and they are up around 250,000 or something like that.

Chris Wallace reported these numbers on FOX over the weekend and David Axelrod didn't really get into a dispute over the numbers - he just said that we will see in a couple of days who is right.

Anyone know what they are talking about?

[LisaL]

7. I have no clue what he is talking about?

All the polls show Obama leads by a large margin in early voting.
The total number of people who already voted might not be as high as in 2008????
Because their early voting hours were cut.
But Obama leads in early voting by a large margin.

[Scuba]

3. If Rove is speaking, believe the opposite of what he says and you'll be OK.

[underpants]

4. Every exit poll that I have seen has Obama winning the early votes hands down

Rove is still full of it. The only reason his candidate *cough* "Won" was because the got to count the votes and the Supreme Court halted the count before the numbers went bad for them.

2004 was a 250,000,000 to 1 chance of not just won battleground flipping outside the margin of error but TEN????

[blue-kite]

5. I'm guessing you mean that % flipped from what the polls said towards Bush.

Do we have any article on that, picking out the stats?

[underpants]

12. :-)

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/election-fraud-an-introduction-to-exit-poll-probability-analysis/

http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/Documents/ExitPoll.pdf

[blue-kite]

21. Cheers UP... Looks like I have some bedtime reading.

[JCMach1]

17. Rove says the % and numbers are much less and if election day breaks the same Romney will win

by a decent margin.

I think they are full of BS because the overlooked Unaffiliated voters.

[underpants]

20. Remember that "independents" include Tea Baggers who no longer call themselves Republican

no one the TV dares mention that

[FarPoint]

6. Ohio Gov.Kasich was just on CBS Morning Show....

spinning the same fantasy jargon. Mitt winning etc....I could hardly pay attention to this Foxx alumni hack. No mention of the constant voter disenfranchisement in Ohio which he is controlling as the Governor.

[LisaL]

8. Yes. Early voting hours were cut, so how are they going to reach the same numbers of

total voters as in 2008?
But Obama leads in early voting by a large margin. So they can't very claim democrats aren't interested in voting, or why would Obama be leading?

[fugop]

10. That's what I don't get

In Florida I read some spin as well about how in spite of the Dem lead, the raw numbers are down for early voting. Well, yeah. Fewer days will do that. I guess they're just assuming all those extra early Dem voters won't vote?

[LisaL]

11. Well, I am sure that's what cutting early voting hours was designed for.

But its much warmer in FL, so more people are willing to stand in long lines vs. OH where they had really bad weather due to Sandy up north where democratic voters are.
So of course OH is going to have less total early voters than they did in 2008-I have no doubt early voting hours were cut to achieve just that.

[Firebirds01]

14. LisaL

Has posted some very knowledgeable information on voting in Ohio over the past months. I would definitely hold what she has to say as being definitive.

[FarPoint]

22. The stress on informed voters in Ohio has been tremendous.

I can't stop fretting...with all the Husted voter disenfranchisement shannigans...affecting my friend, Dennis Lieberman here in Dayton! Dennis was fired from the Board of Election in Montgomery County.

I'm working a a poll observer in effort to sooth my anxiety.

All the GOP Governor hacks on MSM chatter are repeating the same talking points.....using language like crystal ball, psychic etc....they are nothing but arrogant bullies.

[LisaL]

23. Thankfully horrible weather from Sandy stopped.

It was really miserable up North (where democrats are) after Sandy.
Now I am concerned about all polling places up there having electricity.

[zebe83]

9. I found this....

http://www.inquisitr.com/387548/early-voting-results-show-slight-obama-lead/



In Ohio, Democrats made up 29 percent of 1.6 million voters. Republicans were 23 percent of early voters. Party affiliation in that state is based on the last primary in which a voter participated
Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/387548/early-voting-results-show-slight-obama-lead/#xUlaA71kW8QC5aZR.99

It was posted today. I am not sure of this source.

[Firebirds01]

13. In Ohio

You dont have to declare a party to vote. The primary is held the same time as quarterly election (for local issues or to fill some vacancies) so a lot of people vote on the day of the republican primary.The primary is semi-open which means that when you get to the polling place you can just say you are republican and you get the ballot with the republican primary candidates and the local stuff. If you say you arent, you just get the ballot with the local stuff. A lot of people went to vote and decided to vote in the Republican primary because they could (like talking the free mint at the restaurant). So while they said they were republican, they likely are not and there is nothing binding them to that distinction.

I did the math for my county (which is the 24th largest) and saw that registered republicans were ahead of Dems in early voting but waaay behind the unaffiliated group. So you have some republicans who voted early but a fair amount are people who just wanted to vote in the republican primary and the label followed them to the general election. The unaffiliated are likely those who voted just for local stuff (or not at all) in the primary so the party label didnt follow them.

It should also be noted that the majority of the republican early votes were from mail in ballots and the Dem/Unaffiliated votes were in person. All the mail in votes have been counted while early voting in person is still going on. So naturally you will have more 'republican' labeled votes because they count them all at once instead of the piecemeal approach. Its like spending 100 dollars in one day where someone else spends 5 dollars a day. Yeah the 100 dollar amount will show up as more initially but over time the 5 dollars will add up and surpass the 100 threshold.

[zebe83]

15. Thank you for that great explanation.....

I now finally understand the no party affiliation vote. Thank you very much.

[LisaL]

16. They haven't yet counted all mail in ballots.

In OH, you have to mail them before the election. But they don't have to arrive before the election.
So they might not have all absentee ballots back on Nov 6. If large numbers are still outstanding, and the margin is small, we might not know who the winner is until sometime after Nov 17.

[Firebirds01]

19. I stand corrected

from Sec of State website

By U.S. Mail: The return envelope containing your marked ballot must be submitted for mailing no later than 12:01 a.m. on Election Day and received by the board of elections no later than 10 days after the election.

Still, I imagine most people have mailed them in already. I could be wrong though.

[JCMach1]

18. Confirmation of what I was saying... thanks

DU as always an awesome place!

Karl Rove, as usual a bloviating bovine

But wait, I forget they don't believe fact checkers any more