Nate Silver: "If Sanders Won California...

[firebrand80]

by 20 points, he'd still trail Clinton by almost 2 million votes and 200 elected delegates."

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/739840207655174144

[Renew Deal]

2. On the other side of that...

Hillary needs just the bare minimum to win.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512136743

[tonyt53]

3. Oh those pesky numbers, now Bernie-ites will pile on Nate again.

[BobbyDrake]

14. Nate could become a mechanic at this point, for all the time he spends under a bus.

[Bobbie Jo]

4. Bam

She'll wrap this thing up tomorrow.

[anotherproletariat]

5. And if we trust the polls at all, the race should be within 10 points, one way or another.

If Sanders wins, it will give him a nice late night speech (guessing it will be close enough that it may be a few hours before we know for sure...so even late on the West Coast), but not much more. By Wednesday morning there will be a big endorsements for Hillary that will steal the media coverage from Sanders, and then the media will be off to the races with the general election match up.

[k8conant]

6. Yes, the media does like to shape the news.

[anotherproletariat]

8. It's a reality of our time that political campaigns seem to know how to use to their advantage.

I think we agree that it's not the best thing for democracy.

[Adrahil]

7. Math is a shill for Clinton!! NT

[BootinUp]

9. ROFL

[PeaceNikki]

11. It's true. Math is part of The Establishment. Oligarchy.

[Agnosticsherbet]

10. Clinton won California in 2008 51.5% to 41.2, and still lost the nomination.

Her win did not weaken Obama, nor stop Sanders from supporting Obama who managed to win the nomination with a combination of superdelegates and pledged delegates. (Of course, we all know that superdelegates and pledged delegates count the same)

[Triana]

12. A clue for the clueless

Even if Clinton’s Already Won, A Vote for Sanders Can Help Defeat Trump

. . .

Big wins by Sanders in the June 7 contests – in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota and the big enchilada in California – will give him the maximum momentum (and number of delegates) to go into the Democratic Convention with the ability to shape the party rules to make the nominating system more democratic – and write a party platform that can help Hillary to defeat Trump in November.

While some warn that a platform written by Sanders delegates would be too radical, the country is in a radical mood. And the ideas Bernie has built his campaign around are hugely popular with the kind of voters Democrats (and Clinton) need to attract in the general election – young people, union members and working-class voters, African Americans, Latinos, and women. Poll after poll (and election after election) throughout the primary season have demonstrated huge support for the issues Sanders has been talking about: reversing economic inequality, big investments in infrastructure and green jobs, the need for a new trade policy, Medicare for all, an end to mass incarceration, and his promise to break up the big banks, for example. These are the messages Democrats and Clinton will need to win the support of Sanders supporters – and the millions of independent and working class voters – they need in order to prevail in November.

LINK: https://ourfuture.org/20160605/even-if-hillarys-already-won-a-vote-for-bernie-can-help-defeat-trump

[brooklynite]

15. Of course, there WON'T be big wins in NJ, NM and CA...

Other than that, it's a lovely theory...

[Triana]

21. So you have zero interest in Sanders influencing Hillary/DNC rules & policies to help

us defeat Trump.

Lovely.

And you guys say Sanders voters are the problem.

[brooklynite]

23. Look at it this way...

First, the DREAM that Bernie could "win big" and use that for convention clout has nothing to do with the REALITY that it won't happen. Kind of like religious people who get upset when rationalists challenge their unsupported beliefs.

Second, Bernie has been pushing his policy message for a year; either it's had influence on the political debate or it hasn't by now. Hanging around after he's lost the nomination fight (and he has; between the pledged delegates Clinton will win tomorrow and the reported 40 Superdelegates waiting to announce support afterwards, the Party has made it's choice) won't make any of his policy ideas any more viable.

Maybe instead of claiming he's "contesting" the nomination, he could spend the next six weeks working to get House and Senate members elected; the four Berniecrats he's endorsed aren't going to shake things up much.

[calguy]

13. At t his point, Bernie's influence

is no more effective than a gnat on a dog's ass.
I think he'll endorse Hillary on Wednesday, or if he has any class left, he'll do it on Tuesday night after she locks up the nomination.

[bigbrother05]

16. Guessing Bernie is the gnat in your analogy? nt

[workinclasszero]

17. Nate bringing up pesky reality again

[Orsino]

18. But he'd arrive at the convention still looking like a viable candidate.

Last edited Tue Jun 7, 2016, 06:36 AM - Edit history (1)

Momentum is by no means everything, but it ain't nothing. If a win for him helps him retain superdelegates, it's worthwhile for the influence they buy.

And no one need feel threatened.

[Zynx]

19. What momentum? From April 19th on he's lost the bulk of the contests

His "momentum" is nothing and it should be treated as that. Nothing.

[Orsino]

20. The OP hypothesized a Bernie win in a huge state.

If it happens, it would mean something.

[Zynx]

22. Not really, no. He's lost states comprising a large majority of the country's

population. He would only have won 2 of the ten largest states.

[Orsino]

24. That's exactly what it would mean...

...plus the fact that he'd won a big-ass state long after the Establishment would have preferred him gone.

His intent, stated over and over, is to arrive at the convention with as many delegates as possible, because delegates guarantee influence. Any earlier concession would probably depend on the sweetness of an offered deal.

[LanternWaste]

27. Hence, if he doesn't win CA, he arrives at the convention not looking like a viable candidate?

Hence, if he doesn't win CA, he arrives at the convention not looking like a viable candidate?

[Orsino]

28. As viable as a fuckton of delegates makes him.

There's no doubt that a nig win would make him look stronger, for whatever influence that buys him.

[alcibiades_mystery]

25. In Magical Bernie Land, none of that matters

It's all about how a California win (even by 1 vote!) will shift the momentum such that all the super delegates will view Clinton as a WEAK CANDIDATE (Bernie tm) and switch to her, obviating the need for the pledged delegate count at all, which is of course crooked and rigged and rotten!

Of course the arguments lack any sort of coherence, but it is all that is left for the True Believers.

[cynatnite]

26. In other words, she doesn't need to win California...

She's got New Jersey to put her over the top.

By all accounts, Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee.

Any other notions are fantasy.