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Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:01 PM Jun 2016

Predictions for California

I'll start...my guess is, the "call" by the MSM before people had a chance to vote will probably bring a larger than expected turnout of Sanders supporters of disgust for the interference.

I'm gonna say

Bernie 57%

HRC 43%

Post your guesses below.

16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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One Black Sheep

(458 posts)
2. Not sure, but I'm going to be glued to find out what happens, am very excited.
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:04 PM
Jun 2016


The corporate lame stream media's "announcement" changes nothing. Except as a reminder of why so many Americans no longer trust the corporate media about, well, anything.
 

PepperHarlan

(124 posts)
3. Hillary blows him out in NJ
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:05 PM
Jun 2016

And is declared the nominee -- again -- before the polls close in CA. By Wednesday morning, nobody will really be talking about who won Cali. The media will be talking about Hillary and history being made etc.

 

Txbluedog

(1,128 posts)
4. I think the the presumptive nominee call for Hillary is going to hurt her..
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:05 PM
Jun 2016

I can now see her losing Cali, NJ probably a smaller margin of victory

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
7. Uh, no. The demographics are not good enough for Sanders to get that sort of result
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:07 PM
Jun 2016

There is a difference between a prediction and a hope. Benchmark put out a good prediction. Clinton 54%, Sanders 46%.

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
10. Clinton support is always from the elderly voters who vote early by mail.
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:15 PM
Jun 2016

Her campaign expects the first vote numbers-the front loaded mail in votes-to favor her. The recent announcement was meant to quash election day votes, which they expect to favor Sanders.

Based on that, I expect he'll win 52% to 47% when all the votes are tallied.

RichGirl

(4,119 posts)
11. California is always last...
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:18 PM
Jun 2016

...which means election usually decided before they get to vote. Nothing new. After we have our nominee, primaries will quickly be forgotten...as we turn to the general.


In 2008 Hillary pulled out when she was much further along than Bernie is now...and let Obama have it. That's much better for unity.


There's a reason why "female ego" isn't a well worn term...like "male ego"!

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
16. HRC didn't pull out before California.
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:42 PM
Jun 2016

There's no reason to try to force Bernie to do so if she didn't. Especially since Bernie hasn't said anything about HRC that is in any way comparable to HRC's argument that the party should vote against Obama because somebody might assassinate him.

dubyadiprecession

(5,613 posts)
12. News like this usually hurts the losing side...
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:21 PM
Jun 2016

People figure: "what's the point of voting for BS, hillary has the nomination".

Retrograde

(10,068 posts)
14. Harris and Sanchez go on to the GE for Senator
Mon Jun 6, 2016, 10:35 PM
Jun 2016

So does my congressperson and the one other semi-serious candidate (who will get trounced in November because he's a Republican). Assembly is a toss-up, since 4 of the candidates are essentially interchangeable. Prop 50 will probably pass, as will the local county propositions.

What else is up - oh, yeah, president. I expect it will be close, with a less than 5% spread, and I don't know who will win. If Sanders supports care enough to vote for downticket offices, I think Sanders will take the lead. If they're just in it for the Bernie Buzz, then Clinton prevails. However, since delegates are awarded proportionally based on the outcomes in each Congressional district, the pledged delegates may well be about the same.

Other predictions:
-people will whine on the internet that they thought they were "independents" but mistakenly signed up for the American Independent Party and now they can't vote in the Democratic party.
-someone will post that they heard someone's party registration was mysteriously changed to R (why is it always Republican?)
-there will be accusations of voter fraud because some people may be waiting in line too long
-overly enthusiastic Sanders supports will occupy the sidewalk exactly 100'1" from the local polling place in a last-ditch attempt to sway voters' opinions (People opposed to Props. 187 and 8 did this as well: I personally don't see how blocking the way persuades people to support your cause, but whatever).

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