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Tue Jun 7, 2016, 06:54 PM

Bernie' s California numbers will be higher because of the AP announcement.

People who like him more but think HRC will be a stronger nominee will now vote for him without the fear that he will actually get the nomination.

So win or lose his numbers will be higher than if there were still really a contest.

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Reply Bernie' s California numbers will be higher because of the AP announcement. (Original post)
arely staircase Jun 2016 OP
CrowCityDem Jun 2016 #1
pmorlan1 Jun 2016 #5
dchill Jun 2016 #6
JudyM Jun 2016 #24
democrattotheend Jun 2016 #2
PoliticAverse Jun 2016 #3
arely staircase Jun 2016 #11
JimDandy Jun 2016 #4
bunnies Jun 2016 #15
JimDandy Jun 2016 #19
bunnies Jun 2016 #21
Garrett78 Jun 2016 #7
Cheese Sandwich Jun 2016 #9
JRLeft Jun 2016 #10
Cheese Sandwich Jun 2016 #8
arely staircase Jun 2016 #12
Cheese Sandwich Jun 2016 #13
msongs Jun 2016 #14
bunnies Jun 2016 #16
AzDar Jun 2016 #17
Rex Jun 2016 #18
hellofromreddit Jun 2016 #20
Rex Jun 2016 #22
book_worm Jun 2016 #23

Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 06:55 PM

1. I'm seeing reports of mediocre turnout in CA.

 

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Response to CrowCityDem (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:02 PM

5. If True

that's really sad.

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Response to CrowCityDem (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:04 PM

6. First signs of the Hillary Effect...

on the down ballot.

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Response to CrowCityDem (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:11 PM

24. Been on the phone all day. Hearing the same thing.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 06:56 PM

2. That's a good point. Hadn't thought of that

But someone on here reported canvassing last night and meeting Bernie supporters who didn't think there was any point in voting because the media was saying Hillary had already won. So it could go either way.

That said, you might be right. My landlord was one of those people - he was torn between the two of them but I'm pretty sure he ended up going with Hillary because he thinks she is tough enough to beat Trump. If he were voting tomorrow he might have voted for Bernie.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:00 PM

3. You haven't provided a good argument or evidence that your scenario is more likely...

than that predicted by the "Bandwagon Effect".

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Response to PoliticAverse (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:12 PM

11. I just know toomany Dems who say Bernie is closer to them on the issues but are supporting HRC becau

they perceive her to be more electable. I think those people, not just people I know but others like them, will vote for the perceived less electable guy they agree with if the perceived more electable candidate has it locked up.

It is a theory. A hunch. Nothing more. But it has a logic too it. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:02 PM

4. Now that the candidate I like won't be the nominee, I shall vote for him--Said no voter, ever.

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Response to JimDandy (Reply #4)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:45 PM

15. Exactly. nt

 

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Response to bunnies (Reply #15)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:53 PM

19. The spin, contortions, lack of sensible analysis and many conclusions drawn by Clinton supporters

amaze me.


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Response to JimDandy (Reply #19)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:02 PM

21. I'm no longer amazed. Or even surprised.

 

This cycle has become a joke of epic proportions. Nothing but a scripted fucking reality show at this point. I find it difficult to take it seriously.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:06 PM

7. Jeff Weaver said an early announcement would hurt turnout on both sides.

And I think he's right. Impossible to say for certain who it hurts more. Regardless, Clinton was going to become the nominee, and I suspect she'd rather the news had broken during prime time on an election night (as opposed to late the night before).

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #7)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:09 PM

9. We do know who was hurt more because there is a solid poll here that says low turnout would

 

help Hillary in California.



Poll: Sanders edging Clinton out in California

A USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released Thursday evening shows Sanders leading with 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent.
...

But, the poll found, Clinton has a 10-point lead among those likely to vote next week, primarily due to support from older voters.

Sanders has continued to close the gap between him and Clinton and has been campaigning hard across the state.

“Bernie Sanders has tapped into a wellspring of support in the Democratic primary over the last several weeks and he’s closing with a rush,” said Dan Schnur, director of USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, which partnered with the L.A. Times to conduct the poll.

"If Clinton manages to hold him off and win the primary, it would be as a result of a low turnout that tilts the electorate in her direction."
...
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/bernie-sanders-leads-hillary-clinton-new-poll-california

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #7)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:12 PM

10. It hurts ballot initiatives more.

 

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:08 PM

8. No it will sink Bernie because he was hoping for higher turnout

 

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Response to Cheese Sandwich (Reply #8)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:14 PM

12. maybe. That is a valid theory, but not based on anything more than speculation - like, admittedly,

my own theory.

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Response to arely staircase (Reply #12)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:18 PM

13. No it's based on a USC/LA Times poll which strongly indicated Hillary would win

 

would win California in a low turnout situation, But Bernie was slightly ahead (inside the margin of error) in a high turnout situation.

Motive established: USC/LA Times Poll shows Bernie winning California if turnout was high

Poll: Sanders edging Clinton out in California

A USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released Thursday evening shows Sanders leading with 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent.
...

But, the poll found, Clinton has a 10-point lead among those likely to vote next week, primarily due to support from older voters.

Sanders has continued to close the gap between him and Clinton and has been campaigning hard across the state.

“Bernie Sanders has tapped into a wellspring of support in the Democratic primary over the last several weeks and he’s closing with a rush,” said Dan Schnur, director of USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, which partnered with the L.A. Times to conduct the poll.

"If Clinton manages to hold him off and win the primary, it would be as a result of a low turnout that tilts the electorate in her direction."
...
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/bernie-sanders-leads-hillary-clinton-new-poll-california


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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:32 PM

14. its the perfect excuse for sanders if he loses - it's not ME its ABC lol nt

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:47 PM

16. So the people who registered this week are going to vote when it doesn't matter?

 

Doubtful. It'll all be based on mail-ins. Bernie has no chance.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:48 PM

17. You DO bring the LULZ... Predictable, but amusing.

 

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Response to AzDar (Reply #17)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:50 PM

18. The backhanded complements are so boring and predictable.

 

As a HRC supporter, I am really embarrassed by some of my fellow supporters behavior. It just shows you their character.

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Response to Rex (Reply #18)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 07:54 PM

20. Thankyou.

 

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Response to hellofromreddit (Reply #20)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:07 PM

22. Compare these two threads.

 

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512151645
I guess gloaters are gonna gloat. However some of us HRC supporters love BS and his ideas and want to see what he does next.

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Response to arely staircase (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:08 PM

23. Lots of people in California had already voted prior to the AP announcement.

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