2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI think Bernie WOULD have conceded or suspended if it hadn't been for the AP rodent copulation.
That event(whoever was responsible for it) created too much bad blood and rage among Sanders supporters to allow him to just bow out.
A straight-out withdrawal in the immediate post-AP climate might have pushed some of them permanently out of political activity or off into anger-or-despair based choices. Bernie is probably trying his best to bring this in for a soft landing that doesn't break people's spirits.
I'd recommend that everyone see his speech tonight as the first step in "talking people down", while keeping those people together to work for the necessary radical change by different means in the future.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)To easing his supporters to a new agenda.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)However, he did reiterate all the promises up front. "We're gonna do this, and that and that."
Not possible to do those if you drop out.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)There was lots of room for interpretation.
He did not say he would be the nominee or that he would be President. He talked about working with Obama and we know what Obama's agenda is.
It was artfully done but left lots of openings. Next week will tell the tale in my opinion.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)I'm not convinced that he still won't try to turn super delegates.
And I sure don't think he should concede before the convention while the FBI report is still out. That would be foolhardy. If he must suspend, do that. But please don't concede before that report.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)In any case, I think what the AP did kind of forced him into giving the kind of speech he gave tonight.
He should have hit the MSM a little harder.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Miles Archer
(18,837 posts)I'm not a fan of speculation...it rhymes with that other word that ends in "-------ation," and many times both actions yield the same results.
Speculation is all over the map as to what he's doing, why he's doing it, when he's doing it, and as in that "-------ation" word above, that's all we have right now. Some people believe he's going to indict "the day after the convention." That sounds more like the plot of a direct-to-DVD Grade Z political "thriller" you'd find streaming on Netflix.
That said...when my mother passed away, I was executor of her estate. California probate is among the worst in the land...it chewed up 16 miserable months of my life. I drive to the attorney, sign a piece of paper, she signs it, it goes to the judge, the judge signs it, then the attorney calls me and tells me I have to drive up to sign another piece of paper. Over and over, for 16 months. You do not get all of your papers in a packet. You sign them one at a time. It is a process.
What I knew going into this, as I had my family yapping daily like hungry baby birds "Where'smymoneyWhere'smymoneyWhere'smymoneyWhere'smymoneyWhere'smymoneyWhere'smymoney," is that an attorney works a lot slower if you attempt to climb up on their back and take them for a ride.
And the people who have played "Call it, Skinner" with Comey probably haven't made him work any faster, either.
People who are in a position of authority do not like to be told to "go faster" by people who are in a position of lesser (or no) power. It's the law or aerodynamics or reciprocity or any label you'd like to put on it, but I have seen it over and over and over again in my personal and professional life. That's why Skinner hasn't "called it." It's his Website, and no matter how many times he's told what to do, he does his job and will "call it" when he's ready to call it, and not before. I respect him tremendously for that. I know I've pissed him off a few times, unintentionally, but that doesn't mean I don't respect him. I do.
I personally think she's just going to walk away unscathed from all of this.
Why?
Luck of the Clintons, a phone call from Obama to Comey, I don't know.
I always thought that my career, before starting my own business in 2001, was intensely "political." It's still that way, except now I decide which course the politics are going to take. But in those early decades, I was privy to all kinds of self-serving, back-stabbing, throw-them-under-the-bus conversations behind closed doors.
I don't know enough about Comey to know how much of a "man of principle" he is. His statements have consistently been along the lines of "We are going to do this by the book and it's done when it's done." Has the press, "clutching forks and knives to eat their bacon," slowed him down? He might be trying to teach a lesson here, he might have a political agenda, he might just be doing his job.
"-------ation."
I personally do not believe anything is going to happen to throw a game-changer into the November race, and I most emphatically do not say that as a "Clinton supporter," because I'm not.
I've just seen these things play out far too many times. I think she's just going to walk away to the sound of "huzza" from her followers.
If and when Sanders concedes, it should be his own decision, not someone else's. A lot of people are salivating over his meeting with Obama. More "-------ation." But as a Sanders supporter, I don't see waiting for the FBI report as him playing a winning hand, because I don't see a winner here other than Clinton.
Just my opinion.
PADemD
(4,482 posts)Miles Archer
(18,837 posts)Also found Barack America's comment interesting:
But there has been an interesting trend of FBI leaks, filings and press conferences coinciding with "big news" events for Hillary.
I still say they are playing it close to the vest, but I also think that if she were free and clear we'd have known it by now.
I also still say that even if she's found guilt of anything there is a 50-50 chance that she'll just walk away from it without a scratch.
I don't know.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)assuming the FBI completes its investigation before the convention.
still_one
(92,061 posts)I would expect though after the Washington DC primary, that he would start negotiating, and soon after concede. If that doesn't happen, then he will lose the leverage opportunity he has now with the Democratic party
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Congratulations to your candidate on her showing this evening, btw. And the speech was good.
still_one
(92,061 posts)be pretty bummed out.
I am a surprised about California, and I am from California. While things will tighten further, I don't think the spread will be as narrow as I thought. The Field poll is a very accurate poll, and they indicated a two point spread, which is essentially a tie, so that isn't correlating so far. I will be interested to see what the turnout was, and how many who were registered as NPP voted on the Democratic ballot
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Been through this before('84 and '88 with Jesse, '04-although that was much clearer much earlier-with Kucinich). Probably go through it again a few more times.
You sound like most of the HRC people I know in real life, as opposed to here in Cyberslavia.
still_one
(92,061 posts)I definitely agree with on people we know outside of DU.
DU is its own world, I like that term "Cyberslavia".
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)He is now the beloved head of a movement that is larger than the Third Way/DNC party. A coalition of progressives and independents and Millennials. Democrats can't win with just Third Way/DNC.
This makes him the most powerful man in the room; the one controlling the largest voting block. He has nothing to lose by fighting to the end.
William769
(55,144 posts)Rhetorical question.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)It was "the largest voting block"...as it happens, it didn't quite make up a majority at this time.
lakeguy
(1,640 posts)still_one
(92,061 posts)out too far, so that he is cutting into the time that Hillary needs to run an effective general election campaign, then he is causing more damage and not worth it.
When it becomes a two way race, the independents that would have voted for Bernie, will vote for Hillary over Trump. The National poll numbers are not a good measure of how independents will vote. Elections are won, one state at a time. National polls do not effectively measure the electoral college votes.
What the primaries demonstrated however, was that Hillary appealed to a more diverse demographic, and the gender vote is going to be a big deal.
Miles Archer
(18,837 posts)I think that if he says that he's going to the convention to challenge the process, there will still be some people who won't like that, but if he voices his intent to go there and receive the nomination, he'll only do himself irreparable harm. Even Ted Cruz, the most loathsome creature on God's green Earth to walk on two legs, knew when to get out. Look at the man's clueless and relentless drive. And when he saw the numbers, he headed for the exit.
If Sanders had a "sweep" last night, it would be a different matter.
The only people left who are holding out hope for him to become the nominee are the people who are looking at the numbers and not believing them, or who are waiting for an indictment, or both.
The only victory I see left for Sanders is to negotiate whatever he can to pursue his agenda, minus becoming the nominee.
And I say that as a Sanders supporter. My opinion of Clinton really hasn't changed. But I loathe the whole "BernieBro" and "BoB" condescension and I have never been a part of that perceived group of naive, rabid followers. I chose Sanders because I chose Sanders, and the numbers are in, and it's time for him to make a deal or throw it all away.
msongs
(67,361 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)BainsBane
(53,012 posts)pampango
(24,692 posts)That seems to be what you are saying so I agree.
I love the artful dance around rodents there.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Sad, isn't it?
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)Miles Archer
(18,837 posts)If the shoe were on the other foot...say, Laura Bush...we'd be screaming bloody murder.
That's basically why I didn't put on my tux for the celebration last night.
I was accepting it, not celebrating it.
YouDig
(2,280 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)I think it's interesting that Hillary voters were inspired to go to the polls in CA even knowing that she had already won and Sanders supporters didn't show up in great numbers even with with him begging them to get out and vote. If the CA poll was literally neck and neck,his supporters decided it wasn't worth the bother.
Tarc
(10,472 posts)LaydeeBug
(10,291 posts)That AP announcement did NO ONE in our party any favors.
The vote in CA is somewhat compromised because of it, and to be clear: We *all* knew what the AP reported since the end of April.
He needs to "land the plane" but I think he needs to come to terms with it.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)It has no basis in reality.
robbedvoter
(28,290 posts)Bill maher said the 🐘 went from personal responsibility to "look what you made me do" Not the only ones I guess.
Demsrule86
(68,464 posts)He had already said he would fight on even if he lost California...internal polls must have shown he would lose.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)Or if not last night, soon after, especially if he still lost California (which I am not certain he would have).