HEADS UP! LA times reports as many as 3 million CA votes not yet counted!!!

[hopemountain]

LA county alone: 1/2 million uncounted ballots
Uncounted ballots in 2 other counties added to la totals = close to 1 million - in 3 counties alone.

the state does not expect to have all of the votes counted for at least 2 more weeks.

the precinct vote totals on line - are for precincts which have all reported the vote counts. ballots brought into the precincts and/or exchanged for democrat or republican ballots and all provisional ballots have not been totaled, yet for all of the precincts so far.

the final CA voting results may not be completed until after july 5.

so, this ship may change course.

things may be discovered or changed significantly.

the primary results are not final until every vote/ballot is counted and all reports/investigations of fraud or hinky poll behavior are completed.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-primary-wednesday-s-big-question-how-many-1465375928-htmlstory.html

[Renew Deal]

1. That's a guestimate and includes republican ballots.

That number is based on opinion. It includes ballots for all parties.

[still_one]

10. If I read it correctly, voting by mail is also included in the guesstimate. Regardless, while this

may narrow the spread, and change some of the delegate counts, this will not change the fact that Hillary will still have more delegates, and more total votes from the primaries.

Hillary IS THE NOMINEE

[onenote]

12. Some truly shoddy analysis by The Target Report.

For starters, they take the combined republican/Democratic turnout in the 2014 General Election (7.5 million or 42 percent of the combined republican/Democratic registrations) and extrapolate to a higher turnout (46 to 50 percent or 8.2- 8.9 million) for the combined Republican/Democratic primary.

But the results in 2014 were 4.4 million votes for the Democratic candidate and 2.9 million for the Republican. Unlike primaries which are essentially closed in CA, the general elections aren't so you can't know how many voters from each party showed up from these numbers. But its probably safe to say the the overwhelming majority of the votes for the Democratic candidate were cast by Democrats and the overwhelming majority of the votes for the Republican candidate were cast by Republicans.

Anyway, there are a couple of problems with extrapolating from 2014 to 2016. First, General Election turnout among Democrats has historically been higher than primary turnout among Democrats, with the exception of the 2008 election. For example, there were more votes cast for the Democratic candidate in the 1990 governor's race than for all of the Democrats combined in the 1992 presidential primary. And that pattern is pretty consistent.

Even more significant, as noted, the vote split in 2014 was 4.4 for the Democrat and 2.9 million for the Republican. But in 2016, there was not a competitive race on the Repub side and the reported vote at the moment is under 1.5 million - a very low turnout. To assume that the overall turnout in 2016 is going to match or exceed the turnout in 2014 means that the Democratic turnout would have to make up for the shortfall in the Republican race and then some. There's just no reason to think that makes mathematical sense.

Will the total number of votes increase as the certification process unfolds -- almost certainly. Will it be by a magnitude of 3 million (when the current combined count is around 5 million) -- almost certainly not. And will the number of additional votes all be Democratic votes? No, although most probably will be. And will the outcome change significantly -- probably not.

[Jack Bone]

2. Gotta love the Shit Stream Media!!

instant karma's gonna get ya!

[Ned_Devine]

3. Yes!

[reformist2]

4. Why the HELL has every primary been so f-ed up?

[Retrograde]

11. This is the opposite

Remember those provisional ballots people like to complain about? This is when those ballots are examined and a determination is made for each one if it's going to be accepted (people can get provisional ballots if they say they registered but their name's not on the list at the polling site, if they want to exchange a mail-in ballot but didn't bring the original in, if they voted in the wrong precinct, etc.)

There are still outstanding mail-in ballots: as long as they're postmarked by June 7 and received this week those are valid and need to be counted.

Then there are close races. California has a primary system wherein the top two finishers go on to the general election in November. In several Congressional districts - Pelosi's for one - there's a clear #1 but the candidates for the second slot are so close that a recount may be in order.

The election isn't considered official until all the counties certify their votes and submit them to the Secretary of State, who certifies the whole election. The posted deadline for the counties is July 5 for presidential candidates and July 8 for all other state races. The Secretary of State has until July 15 for final certification. Just because the news media all want to be first to announce a winner doesn't mean things are over.

[AzDar]

5. Here's Some VERY Interesting Exit Poll Data...

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM


?1




I'm SURE That A/P Bullshit Cheap Trick Was JUST A Blip, Though...

[hopemountain]

6. yet, the results matched for the gop...

go figure.

[AzDar]

8. So ODD...

[Lord Magus]

7. Are those the clowns who said they'd do a "citizens' exit poll"?

[hopemountain]

9. oh, you mean like the media clowns

who have always done them but decided not to?

[reformist2]

13. Anyone not the least bit suspicious about their decision *not* to do an exit poll...

...is <comment deleted>. I mean that.

[CreekDog]

15. No

Especially since had Bernie won, he'd still be very behind in the pledged delegates.

Not to mention that California votes over a month and mostly not in person.

[Major Hogwash]

18. "Not to mention that California votes over a month and mostly not in person."

Do you mean early voting?
For an entire month?

Dayum, that's cool.
I wished we did that here in Idaho.

[CreekDog]

19. Yes early voting, but mostly absentee voters

Permanent absentee voters begin receiving their ballots a month ahead of the election (and anyone be a permanent absentee voter, it's even encouraged).

Early voting is another option, basically you can show up to City Hall or some other designated place and cast your ballot early.

Lots of ways to vote in California. It is a tall order to figure out how to accurately exit poll them.

[CreekDog]

17. your "poll" excludes Election Day in person votes and 3 days of absentee votes

to post it as invalidation of the election results is bullshit and you need to stop doing it.

[NCTraveler]

16. Independent Target Book

This looks like a blog post at the Times. Seems to focus on congressional votes. No one thought turnout for this Presidential primary was going to be double that of '08.

The independent Target Book, a publication that handicaps congressional and legislative races, called it "probable" that as many as 3 million ballots could remain uncounted by time Tuesday night ended. And traditionally, said the analysts, those ballots tend to have come from Democrats, young and Latino voters.

As of early Wednesday morning, about 5 million ballots had already been counted, but there was no official word on how many remained. State election law gives counties 30 days to finish their canvassing of votes cast. Secretary of State Alex Padilla must receive certified results from each of California's 58 counties by July 8.

[DrDan]

20. "all reports/investigations of fraud or hinky poll behavior are completed"

Do you really believe that will ever happen? The fertile minds that have kept this primary season mired in conspiracies pretty much guarantee they will all never be cleared. Those that are, will not be accepted by the bros.

Time for all to move forward.

[Tarc]

21. If you're not clapping for one miracle, you're clapping for another I guess...