Someone mathematically explain to me how Sanders can still win California

[ButterflyBlood]

And simply stating "there are x number of ballots left" isn't such an explanation. Obviously not all the outstanding ballots were cast in the Democratic primary and obviously not all of those that were voted for Sanders. I'm asking for mathematical breakdown of the remaining ballots (like Nate Silver would do if it were close) that would both be realistic and plausible and would give Sanders a win. Because the best I'm getting for him is he would need about 2/3 of the remaining ballots cast in the Democratic primary, and that is obviously not happening.

Claims of vote fraud with zero evidence or backing does not count either, and things like "Bernie held a rally in this city and so many people showed up but he lost it!" or "There were SO MANY Bernie yard signs in my city but the vote totals show him losing it!" do not count as evidence.

[Stallion]

1. Good News and Bad News

he has actually picked up .2% (55.7%-43.3%) but he's several 10s of thousands farther behind- about 475,000 votes

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/party/democratic/

[LonePirate]

2. It's magic in 5 easy steps!

1. Pick a number >= 2.5M
2. Claim there are that many uncounted mail-in and provisional ballots
3. Pretend that all of those ballots will be counted
4. Predict Bernie wins 60% of them
5. Bernie wins California!

[LuvLoogie]

6. But aren't a lot of those Republican ballots and non partisan ballots with no presidential choice?

[Lil Missy]

9. Shhhhshhhhshut! This is Bernie Math!

[Rincewind]

11. Yes, but

you aren't supposed to mention that.

[Grassy Knoll]

3. Try Jackass Cannibals

Quite a few meth er Math majors at that website.

[leftofcool]

4. Ouch!

[BobbyDrake]

21. +1!

[brooklynite]

5. Well Timmy, if a voter loves their candidate VERY MUCH, they.....

[tandem5]

8. hah a special election day hug

[Hortensis]

23. Five stars!

[NastyRiffraff]

28. Just like Tinkerbell!

Just wish really really hard...

[tandem5]

7. You need a hit of the good stuff? Some black label Bernie Math?

[pat_k]

10. Scenario

The remaining ballots are mainly from people who sent their mail-in ballot close to the deadline. Older people tend to vote early. Most of their votes are already counted. Younger people tend to do things at the last minute. Their votes will be overrepresented in the uncounted ballots. One scenario that would result in a Sanders' win would be if about 72 percent of the remaining ballots were from voters age 18 to 34, or from people in another demographic that skews heavily to Sanders.

Perhaps that's outside the realm of possibility, but "just for fun," here's how the scenario goes:

According to the Capitol Weekly / Open California survey, voters age 18-34 broke for Sanders 78% to 22%.

As of June 10, the total number of primary ballots (Dem and Repub) counted was 5,559,010. Of those, 3,817,713 (68.7%) were cast in the Democratic primary.

According to the LA Times there are 2,423,607 uncounted ballots statewide. The number will go up because mail-in ballots received today will also be counted. A conservative estimate of the number of ballots that remain to be counted is, as many have already pointed out, 2.5 million.

Assuming the Dem/Repub split is the same for counted and uncounted ballots, approx 1,717,500 of those will be Dem primary ballots. According to this article 85 to 90% of provisional ballots are typically counted. I can't find any numbers on rejection rates for mail-in ballots. If we are conservative and assume an overall high rejection rate -- say 20% -- that leaves about 1,374,000 to be allocated between Sanders and Clinton.

Current count:
2,128,194 Clinton
1,653,416 Sanders

If Sanders got 926,584, or 67% of remaining, it would be 2,580,000 Sanders, 2,575,610 Clinton.

We've got a 78/22 Sanders/Clinton split for the 18-34 cohort.

The split for the 35 and up cohort can't be calculated based on the charts provided in the absentee ballot survey, but looking at the breakdown for 35-44 (Clinton 45%), 45-54 (Clinton 55%), 55-64 (Clinton 57%) and 65 and up (Clinton 65%), a 40/60 Sanders/Clinton split wouldn't be too far off.

72% of 1,374,000 is 989,280

989,280 split 78/22 for Sanders and 384,720 split 40/60 for Sanders give him the target of 926,584.

[AntiBank]

12. will all the remaining uncounted be counted?

nice breakdown btw

[pat_k]

14. Yes, except those that have some problem...

...like a mail-in ballot with a missing signature.

As Agnosticsherbet points out the count is slow because there are there are many steps to processing mail-in and provisional ballots. And the whole process has to be properly witnessed. More here.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/ is one of the better sos sites I've seen. It provides updated totals, counting reporting status, and an unprocessed ballot report. The unprocessed ballot report provides the date/time each county reported in. This helps give a sense of how much the number may increase (e.g., if county last reported on the 8th, the numbers don't include ballots received in the mail on 6/9 and 6/10.

[onenote]

15. Another factor

And I apologize if this is accounted for in your post and I missed it.

While there are approximately 2.5 million votes left to be processed, a considerable portion of those votes are not Democratic primary votes. Of the 6 million plus votes processed thus far, only 58.3 percent were cast in the Democratic primary (taking into account all of the candidates on the Democratic presidential primary ballot). The remaining ballots were cast in either another party's presidential primary (Repub, Libertarian, Green, AIP, Peace and Freedom) or were not presidential primary ballots. Thus, the starting point wouldn't be 1,717,500 ballots (68.7 percent of 2.5 million ballots), it would be 1,407,500 ballots (58.3% of 2.5 million ballots).

I don't know how this impacts your bottom line, but its important to keep in mind that a significant portion of the ballots cast (and presumably a similar number of the unprocessed number, although that can't be known for certain) are not Democratic primary votes and, at least intuitively, the smaller the base of votes available for Sanders to draw from to catch up with Clinton, the harder it gets.

[pat_k]

29. Recalculated

Thanks!

I rechecked and Democratic primary ballots constitute 67.8 of all the ballots cast. I'm not sure what I originally did, but here is what it should be:

3,817,713 Dem
5,629,170 All Parties

67.82% Percentage Dem

I'm not sure how I ended up being so close to the correct percentage because I think I did just add Repub and Dem results in the first calculation.

I re-did the whole thing with a couple adjustments and posted as an OP. The new version is laid out step-by-step so hopefully everything is accounted for.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512178036

[Cobalt Violet]

13. It's easy. They count ALL the ballots.

It's really that simple. It's called counting.

[ButterflyBlood]

18. Thats not a mathematical explanation

What indicates the remaining ballots favor Sanders so heavily they will make up his current large margin he's trailing by?

[Demsrule86]

16. He can't win.

The numbers will not change much...they may go up for Hillary Clinton, but I think Sanders believes his own propaganda about how counting the votes will show he was robbed, or he is using it for fundraising (the cynic in me thinks this is likely).

And the other thing is even if he had won California, he still would have lost. He had no delegate path forward.

[beachbum bob]

17. pipe dreams (literally)...remaining uncounted "unprocessed" ballots are 2/3rds mail-in which

overwhelmingly favor hillary. If any thing....hillary's margin of victory will expand to much higher levels....approaching over a million more votes than sanders. A crushing defeat especially when you consider the month sanders spent campaigning in California and the millions of dollars he spent over what hillary spent.

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

[grossproffit]

19. Okay, first problem is that you're using regular math. You need to be using advanced Bernie math

[youtube]

[/youtube]

[MrMickeysMom]

20. 2/3rd of the ballots cast were not even counted...

Let the math work itself out, and you'll have an answer.

Then, do it to all the other states where the same nonsense was allowed to disenfranchise voters.

[Tarc]

22. You throw around words like "disenfranchisement"

Without really grasping the meaning.

A closed primary is not disenfranchisement.
Bernie voters not registering in time is not disenfranchisement.
Being given a provisional ballot is not disenfranchisement.
Bill Clinton with a megaphone is not disenfranchisement.


Advice to Berniefans; shut up and vote. If you think to the best of your ability you have followed all the rules of your respective state and you'rt still somehow being prevented from voting or having your vote tallied, then follow your state's procedure to appeal or challenge. Use the system, it is there for you. It isn't there to spy on you, or thwart your vote, or drive you away. Stop screaming that every bureaucratic malaise is a conspiracy.

[Lord Magus]

24. Your claim that ballots are being thrown out is false. -nt-

[MrMickeysMom]

25. By who's determination?

[Lord Magus]

26. Here's a thorough debunking of that false rumor.

http://www.politifact.com/california/statements/2016/jun/10/blog-posting/pants-fire-viral-rumor-bernie-sanders-won-californ/

[MrMickeysMom]

27. Made sure to read it before saying that it does nothing to "thoroughly debunk"...

... It DOES open that the Gazette’s claim earned a, "Pants On Fire".

Nothing will be "debunked" until the votes are counted...

And, that changes nothing, but thank you for playing.

[lancer78]

30. I am sick of Sanders supporters

complaining about disenfranchisement. Some dumb millennial who didn't get moving fast enough to make sure he/she was registered Democrat to vote in the Democratic primary is not being prevented from voting.

An 80 year old woman in Tennessee who has been voting for 60 straight years until the last election cycle where she was prevented from voting because of new state ID requirements, THAT is disenfranchisement.