No explanation for this. How does the exit poll flip 21%?

[bkkyosemite]

"Clinton won Connecticut by nearly 18,000 votes (51.8-46.4%).
Are we to believe that CT had just a 1.4% discrepancy as shown in the adjusted CNN exit poll while NY neighbor had an 11.8% exit poll discrepancy?

Assuming this ABC news preliminary exit poll screenshot is legitimate, how does one explain the 21% discrepancy between the poll and the recorded vote?
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/06/13/the-connecticut-primary-did-clinton-really-win/"

Screen shot of exit poll...does not jive: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1169320403109972&set=gm.1686116964982013&type=3&theater

[CrowCityDem]

1. Easy. Exit polls are only as accurate as regular polls. Counting votes is much better.

[BootinUp]

2. Doh! You mean its the exit polls that were wrong?

[scscholar]

32. Exit polls are from actual voters

Plus the sampling on regular polls is never random enough. They are much more accurate.

[CrowCityDem]

34. They're only some voters, not all of them, like COUNTING THE F'N VOTES.

[scscholar]

42. Counting the actual votes is too hard for CA...

and for other states like Washington state that admits to throwing away 7% of the votes, but we all know the actual number is much higher.

[MrMickeysMom]

45. Exit polls have a firm margin of error, also...

They can't be as widely off as they were without calling into question HOW the votes were counted.

I wonder why it was so important for the DNC to be SO disinterested in exit polls for CA and NJ?

[brooklynite]

3. Two days...

[bkkyosemite]

10. Only two days until total censorship and only you and your family of Clinton/Oligarchy

supporters are left here without any descent from others...wonderful, congratulations on your accomplishment. Keep believing it because millions do not.

[Agschmid]

23. Things are certainly going downhill around here.

Descent into darkness and all...

[brooklynite]

25. When you choose to come into someone's home, you agree to abide by their rules...

Last edited Sat Jun 18, 2016, 06:10 PM - Edit history (1)

...I believe that BERNIECRATICUNDERGROUND.COM is available if you want to create your own community.

[choie]

44. So how about this...

Why don't you just allow people to say what they want, without your commentary, until monday rolls around?

[MrMickeysMom]

60. How ridiculous is it to rejoice over censorship?

Exponentially fucked for any civil discourse or debate, intelligent discussion.

Wow!

[JackRiddler]

70. Such a sad little soul.

[winetourdriver]

80. thank the goddess

Hillary won the primaries, she will be our nominee, and she will be POTUS- it is what it is.

[John Poet]

81. Good thing it's not more than two, because

I doubt you can count higher than that.

[TDale313]

4. In every other country we acknowledge that

Huge discrepancies between exit polls and official results is one of the surest signs of election fraud. I remember screaming at the tv when someone from the Bush administration was making that very case about the results in I believe the Ukraine just weeks after the 2004 elections here. With absolutely no hint of irony about the fact that the same exact thing just happened here.

Our electoral system needs to be fixed and we need major campaign finance reform if we are ever going to have a hope of fixing the major issues we face.

[Overseas]

82. Quite true. But there was a big show when that happened w W's "re-election" declaring how exit polls

were just plain unreliable because too many got things wrong for that election. They had to be adjusted in the wee hours as I recall.

I'd like hand counted paper ballots. It would create some much needed temp jobs too.

[Cali_Democrat]

5. exit poll truthers...

[msongs]

7. the truth is bernie won 100% of all the votes cast everywhere and giving hillary 1 vote is fraud nt

[skylucy]

63. You forgot to say that he is perfect in every way.

HILLARY 2016

[Tom Rinaldo]

21. Can we dicuss this later?

Winners tend to be content with the process, losers tend to find fault. That seems to be how many people naturally react. Do you agree that it is important for us all to look at our election procedures again once the Democratic Convention is over and Democrats officially have a nominee?

[LoverOfLiberty]

35. I agree with you

If there is a problem it likely isn't one Democrat trying to cheat another. Its Republican disenfranchisement through all manner of mischief and trickery.

[bkkyosemite]

6. The truth is all over the place but I picture you plugging your hears and going nah nah

yada yada yada...the truth has been recorded all over this country. You want your candidate to win so it doesn't matter. But Democracy matters...

[laserhaas]

8. Smoking gun video is also being ignored

They simply dont care how many wrongs transpire

[rickford66]

9. Read Stossel's column today.

Apparently his own brother gave or still gives big bucks to the Clintons. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[laserhaas]

14. If you (honestly) believe she did no wrong

Then its okay to donate

But such a conclusion may only be reached with the thickest/ darkest of blinders on.

[reformist2]

36. Even though HRC is now the 'presumptive' nominee, I still see way more support for Bernie IRL.

The disconnect between all the crowds, the signs, bumper stickers, messages, tweets - and the "official" election results - it's one of the most suspicious things I've ever seen.

[Blanks]

59. Not everyone feels the need...

To overtly advertise support for their candidate. It seems that making it known that you're a Clinton supporter is asking to be harassed by Sanders supporters (particularly around here, but I see it on Facebook too).

...so you just quietly go down to the polls and vote for Hillary like all of the other people who weren't in a mood to be harassed.

[LanternWaste]

84. The corollary being true as well...

"You want your candidate to win so it doesn't matter. But Democracy matters..."

The corollary being true as well... you want Sanders to win so any loss of his is both suspect and part of the grand conspiracy. Democracy matters, part II...

[felix_numinous]

11. The rush is to shut us down

before any of this proof gets spread far and wide.

'Just stop' 'Get out' 'Go away' 'Oh this is craaaazy talk' Is neither an adult way to have conversations with nor is it democratic. It is regressive behavior and evidence of stress, fear and desperation. This evidence catches them red handed and their reaction shows a resistance to facing this truth.

I swear progressives need not only legal advocacy but experts in deprogramming people from destructive behavior. I wish I had the skills.

[laserhaas]

15. That's why I changed my avatar

I wish I had such skills...also

[felix_numinous]

19. NICE avatar

and so appropriate

[laserhaas]

20. Thanks...yours is awesome. Cant wait until July 24

Wouldnt it be wonderful..if our world was more like Starfleet life?

[felix_numinous]

22. I like to envision a cool future

it's how we got this far.

The neo liberal vision of the future seems tainted by armageddon/dystopian warlike scenarios, which need people to stay ignorant and afraid the whole time.

People are not coping well with climate change, they would rather shame and blame and get out of doing work to curtail it. Classic denial.

[laserhaas]

24. Agree

Denial is the order of the day

[Lord Magus]

47. You don't HAVE any proof. You don't even have evidence.

You have ludicrous conspiracy theories.

[Ned_Devine]

55. What an ironic response

The rush is to shut us down before any of this proof gets spread far and wide.

'Just stop' 'Get out' 'Go away' 'Oh this is craaaazy talk' Is neither an adult way to have conversations with nor is it democratic. It is regressive behavior and evidence of stress, fear and desperation. This evidence catches them red handed and their reaction shows a resistance to facing this truth.

[Lord Magus]

56. And yet you're still not actually presenting anything resembling proof.

Repeating insisting that you have proof is not itself proof.

[LanternWaste]

85. I also pretend different opinions shut me down

I also pretend different opinions shut me down-- as it plays much better into our narrative of being oppressed and martyred for the cause.

Righteous, man. Righteous.

[Tarc]

12. The US does not use or conduct exit polls in the same manner as other nations

This has always been an ill-informed apples & oranges comparison, as the methodologies are completely different. Exit polls here are conducted by the media for purposes of early projections, not for fraud detection.

[Else You Are Mad]

28. Well, in that case, maybe..

We should have mandatory independent exit polls in every state for every election and primary that is not influenced by either party or the media. That would help to weed out some of the election fraud on all sides.

[Tarc]

40. Or maybe, stop whining about things that do not happen and go by the...wait for it...

...the vote-tallying.

Honestly, the "OMG FRAUD!" shtick is about as nonsensical as the Republican's "OMG FRAUD!" shtick that they use to justify voter id laws.

[Else You Are Mad]

43. right.

Because there hasn't been any election fraud since 2000. But, hey, put your head in the sand and see how that works out come November. You realize it was the republicans that did this and not the democrat, right? Your smugness disqualifies you from crying fraud when the GOP does it again in November.

[Tarc]

46. Perhaps you can provide a link to an article discussing Bernie's legal challenge

to a state primary where you allege "fraud" ?

I'll be here waiting.

[Else You Are Mad]

49. Well, once again..

I never mentioned Bernie Sanders nor did anything I said had anything to do with Sanders or his complaints of fraud. I wasn't even just referring to just the primaries. I was referring to the multiple instances where republicans have committed election fraud.

But, don't let the subject matter of my posts get in the way of your nonsense replies.

[Tarc]

67. Surely if there were a legitimate case of fraud, Sanders would swiftly sue

to overturn or at least suspend the result certification. That fact that they have not, not a single time in all the cases where his "passionate" fans scream "FRAUD! FRAUD! FRAUD!", filed a challenge shows how weak and baseless the "FRAUD!" claims by people such as you really are.

[Else You Are Mad]

68. I never mentioned fraud in any of Sanders primaries.

I meant in general elections, the GOP has been commiting election fraud since 2000 on massive scale.

It has nothing to do with any claims of fraud made on behalf of Sanders.

I don't think I can say it any clearer than that. But I guess you are so intent on smearing Sanders supporters that you have blinded yourself to the truth.

[Tarc]

69. The GOP has not committed "election fraud since 2000 on massive scale"

This is the weird, paranoid wing of the Democratic Party that just needs to crawl away, really.

[Else You Are Mad]

75. Okay, well, keep living in your bubble.

Because if that is what you think, I hope you don't mind having a Republican president, because that is what it will result in.

Ignoring such things tends to end with disastrous results.

Unless, of course, as it seems to me, you are defending the Republican party...

[Godhumor]

13. Easy explanation--Richard Charnin is an idiot with access to Excel

But that's not exactly a secret.

[KingFlorez]

16. Exit polls are not based on an actual vote count

Depending on where and when the exit polls are conducted, they can be very off. If an exit poll is conducted in area that ends up voting nowhere near the statewide average, then chances are the exit poll is going to be wrong.

[zappaman]

17. "No explanation"

[AzDar]

18. K & R

[glennward]

26. People lie and questions are asked differently. nt

[athena]

72. Most people don't answer.

The questionnaire is too long, which means most people don't answer, which means the results are not representative. That, in turn, means there can be huge differences between the exit polls and the real election results.

[jillan]

27. Exit polls only matter in foreign countries, esp the ones that we brought Democracy to.

UN and many others monitor their elections.

Here in the USA, exit polls are ignored.

It is quite stunning.

[Else You Are Mad]

29. Here is how I see it.

Those that want to discredit exit polls say that they are not accurate but NEVER say we should Institute mandatory, independent and accurate exit polls for every election because those people are afraid of what might be discovered if such was to be implemented.

It will take a 98% win in election here in the US to even raise an eyebrow... which is sad.

[jillan]

31. Of course we want it! We should be fighting for the same standards we demand of other countries.

Including the UN overseeing our elections.

Since 2000 (maybe even sooner) people have questioned who really won the election.
This will not go away until we physically count ballots and have independent, non partisan exit polling.

[jamese777]

33. From Five Thirty Eight Blog

"The System Isn’t ‘Rigged’ Against Sanders
Clinton’s winning because more Democrats want her to be the nominee."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-system-isnt-rigged-against-sanders/

Senator Sanders just wasn't able to attract enough People of Color to support him. For example, in South Carolina he lost the African American vote by 86% Clinton to 14% Sanders and African Americans were 61% of Democratic Primary voters in South Carolina. That result was repeated in state after state with significant non-white populations and major metropolitan areas.
http://www.thenation.com/article/how-south-carolinas-black-vote-saved-2016-for-hillary-clinton/

[Else You Are Mad]

41. Sorry, but

What I said has nothing to do with the distribution of votes, it has to do with the anomalies that occurred in states that you did not mention.

[Lord Magus]

53. Because those "anomalies" don't actually exist. -nt-

[Else You Are Mad]

57. you must be new to politics... nt

[Lord Magus]

48. That's not what exit polls are used for at all.

Exit polls are used for demographic data about the voting, not for validating the election results.

[jillan]

50. You are wrong. Here is the definition from the election defense alliance.

There is a lot more info IF you are interested at the link.

Why should we care about exit poll results? When properly conducted, exit polls should predict election results with a high degree of reliability. Unlike telephone opinion polls that ask people which candidate they intend to vote for
several days before the election, exit polls are surveys of voters conducted after they have cast their votes at their polling places. In other words, rather than a prediction of a hypothetical future action, they constitute a record of an action that was just completed. Around the world, exit polls have
been used to verify the integrity of elections. The United States has funded exit polls in Eastern Europe to detect fraud. Discrepancies between exit polls and the official vote count have been used to successfully overturn election results in Ukraine, Serbia, and Georgia.

Read more: http://electiondefensealliance.org/frequently_asked_questions_about_exit_polls#ixzz4ByTnS3sS

[Lord Magus]

52. The Election Defense Alliance is WRONG.

That is not at all how exit polls are used.

[reformist2]

65. Actually, you are incorrect. Exit polls are often used as indicators for potential election fraud.

[Adrahil]

71. To be used in that way, they must be constructed to be used that way, which is expensive.

U.S. Exit polls are NOT generally constructed to verify results, but rather to give some insight into the electorate and their issues/composition. Preliminary (which is what the ABC results were) are often quite wrong, but because different parts of the electorate have different voting patterns. Really, just look at what the exit pollsters themselves are saying. This is not a big mystery.

[jamese777]

30. The Democratic Primary Wasn't Rigged

From The Nation:

Hillary Clinton won the Democratic presidential primary by 387 pledged delegates and 3.7 million votes.

Despite this large margin, some of Bernie Sanders’s most strident supporters have attributed Clinton’s lead to foul play, alleging that the Democratic Party’s nominating rules cost Sanders the nomination and the Clinton campaign deliberately suppressed pro-Bernie votes. These claims, which have circulated widely online, are false. My colleague Joshua Holland, who supports Sanders, has extensively debunked many of these conspiracy theories, but I want to add more detail now that the primary is over. (I’ve been neutral throughout the race and do not endorse candidates.)

Excerpt: http://www.thenation.com/article/the-democratic-primary-wasnt-rigged/

[bkkyosemite]

62. Yes it was!

[Lord Magus]

73. Well that was a brilliant rebuttal.

You sure proved your point.

[Phlem]

77. Silly. They're only rigged when the the Republicans are winning.

If it's got a "D" in it, it's pure as the driven snow.

There, fixed it for ya.

[Sheepshank]

37. Same explanation as the Michigan debaucle

....which btw, it the prime example of why closed Primaries should be the rule.

[MFM008]

38. Exit polls

Showed her winning or very close I'm MI.
?????

[Jim Lane]

39. What about absentee ballots?

In the absence of fraud, one would expect the exit polls to track fairly closely with the reported results of the votes cast at the polling place that day. The total reported votes, however, will include absentee ballots. If Clinton supporters are more likely to cast absentee ballots (e.g., because they're more likely to be elderly and infirm), then the absentee ballots, as a group, will skew differently from the voters sampled by exit poll.

On the linked page, Charnin says, "Clinton’s votes were padded via absentees...." I assume he's referring to the general consensus that absentee votes offer a fertile field for fraud, much more than the alleged in-person fraud that Republicans pretend to be so alarmed about when they're enacting voter ID laws. There may well have been phony absentee ballots this year but that's a separate issue from the exit poll discrepancy. I find it plausible that Clinton would do better among absentee ballots even without any fraud.

I'm not clear on how the discrepancy here has been calculated.

[LonePirate]

51. How many times do people need to be told that exit polls are not reliable election indicators?

Some people just simply refuse to learn it seems.

[reformist2]

64. Tell that to election monitors around the world. It's one of their most important tools.

It's why some countries actually go so far as to ban them...

Pakistan bans international observers from conducting exit polls for election

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24475246.html

[LexVegas]

58. ...

[JoePhilly]

61. We should decide the general election using only exit polls ... the actual votes don't matter.

[Kentonio]

66. I'm not saying there was fraud here, because I have no honest idea.

But what does confuse me is why people are so quick to scream tin foil hat when just 16 years ago a nation election was actually stolen through fraud. And following which various other elections have produced deeply questionable results often from easily hackable voting machines with not paper trail.

[Lord Magus]

74. Because all of these claims of "fraud" are completely without factual basis.

That's why it's dismissed as tinfoil hat nonsense.

[randome]

76. When enough bogus cries of "Wolf" accumulate, the truth gets ignored.

Sanders supporters have once again been his worst enemy.

And besides, every distinct in every election has problems. It's inevitable. That doesn't mean fraud, though.

[Kentonio]

83. Why would it be inevitable?

In most western countries this kind of thing is extremely rare.

[randome]

86. Millions of voters elbowing their way into line in one day.

Do most other countries have a decent polling interval? We're so obsessed with States' rights that we have 50 different voting systems. It's organized madness. And then we bring caucuses into the mix!

[stevenleser]

78. Same way any other poll can be wrong.

Here is a good opening primer: https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/support/polling-fundamentals-total-survey-error/

[SidDithers]

79. Richard Charnin...

Sid