IMO, Trump is following my Oct 13 idea, when average voters start to pay attention.

[CK_John]

That is why he is not spending or raising money, he thinks it would be wasted.

It is my opinion that the 2nd week in Oct is when voters begin to tune into the election and the financial state of the economy on Oct 13 determines who wins.

(political wonks excluded)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx


The evidence suggest that voting intentions are well into the process of hardening by the date you cited.

[yeoman6987]

2. I agree. But I'd say they slowly begin in September especially if a debate.

That first debate will be a ratings success. I have no doubts about that.

[Hiraeth]

3. After vacation when school starts back, I think people have more time to start really

paying attention.

[uponit7771]

4. You're right nationally but these aren't national campaigns any longer, if they define him in swing

... states its hard for him to wiggle out of those definitions and then any retorts sounds like retaliation.

Him not having any money right now isn't good either

[Adrahil]

5. I disagree.

The fact is, the narrative of the campaign is being established NOW. People may not really tune into the campaign until after Labor Day, but by then the conversation is set. The terms of the debate are defined. Clinton is doing all the defining right now. That's bad for Trump, no matter HOW he spins it.