2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf Trump Bails, I Think Romney Would be the Nominee
The rest of the GOP clown car from 2016 lost badly to Trump, and are branded this year as losers.
RMoney has lost in two tries for the Presidency, so he has lots of experience running, and seems to be positioning himself as the go-to guy if Trump implodes or intentionally bails.
The GOP would be in a complete state of panic, and would be looking for someone to step in who had not been destroyed during the primary race. Weak as he is as a Presidential candidate, he's about as good as the GOP can find, really. I think his status as a two-time loser would prevent him from having a chance, but I don't think any of the other possibilities would have a chance, either.
Jeb Bush, the other obvious choice, failed miserably in the primaries, and is pretty much finished.
Hillary Clinton can beat Romney, but it will be closer than against any of the other possibilities, I think.
Frankly, I hope Trump sticks it out and we have the resultant landslide for Clinton. I'm less confident that he will hang in there, though, than I once was.
Thoughts?
unblock
(52,116 posts)i'd also expect the trump loyalists to make matters even worse and uglier if he's not the nominee for any reason.
i also think there would be hell to pay if they reversed the primary result by a rule change after the fact at the convention.
in a way, they're better off cutting their losses. let trump run and flounder, and run an explicit campaign to promote congressional candidates. just run an anti-hillary campaign and hope they can keep both houses in congress.
i think all the talk about anyone else being the republican nominee is fighting the last war / wishful thinking.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)But, as you point out, maintaining their majority in Congress will be the Republican Party's top priority. Replacing Trump could potentially help in that endeavor, because even if he were to run as a 3rd party candidate, the more right wingers that are running the more likely Republicans are to perform well in down-ticket races.
On the other hand, it could totally backfire and result in depressed turnout on their side. I suspect you're right in that the focus will be on winning congressional races and attacking Clinton in hopes that they can deny her a "mandate."
TwilightZone
(25,427 posts)I think the GOP is stuck with Trump and Trump is stuck with the GOP. They're going to figure out that they're stuck with him and half-hardheartedly dump money into the race hoping for a miracle.
Even if they replace him, I think they're sunk. It might play well with the GOP base (minus the Trump supporters), but many would see it as disingenuous, at best.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)As I wrote in one of the bazillion other threads on this topic, it'll be someone for whom 2016 represents their only chance. In other words, it won't be someone like Ryan, who undoubtedly has his eyes on 2020 or 2024.
It could be Romney, Gingrich, Kasich, etc. Someone who knows he/she will never again have a shot at being the Republican nominee for POTUS. Someone who will then pick a woman or POC as a running mate in a pathetic attempt to neutralize accusations of sexism and racism.
PJMcK
(21,995 posts)They would know they were going to lose. What's the upside for Mr. Romney, former-Speaker Gingrich, Governor Kasich or any other possible candidate in that age group? The GOP is already deeply worried about the election and if they replace Donald Trump, the GOP knows that they'll lose up- and down-ticket races. For the replacement candidate, is the highly unlikely possibility of a fluke win really that much of a balance to the grueling humiliation that is a presidential campaign?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Or, if I'm being less cynical, to help preserve the Republican label. And with a big enough ego, someone like Gingrich could convince himself that winning is possible.
Many members of the GOP might think replacing Trump will improve their chances of maintaining their majority in Congress.
drray23
(7,615 posts)either Romney or Jeb, both of whom have the apparatus to quickly put a campaign together and get money flowing from donors.
The gop could get rid of Trump simply by attrition. If they dont give him funds he will resign or bankrupt himself.
They could just tell him to suspend before the convention and make a deal with him whereas they would pay off his campaign debt including the 55 millions in loans he made to his campaign. Voila ! No need for rule changes or other form of chaos.
MineralMan
(146,254 posts)I just don't know. I also think Trump might implode and pull out himself. I don't think there's a lot of strength under that facade.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)Like you,Willard can ramp up his campaign within two to three days. Anyone else would take at least a month. Willard has the Missionary Cadre that can be knocking on doors and doing lit drops within minutes.
L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)he won't be facing an incumbent President. However, the electoral map so favors the Dems, he would only be a stop-gap to prevent a sweep election.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Replacing Trump or having multiple 3rd party right wing candidates is one way to boost right wing turnout.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)He has easily the second most delegates, and a lot of the Trump delegates are actually Cruz supporters.
wiggs
(7,809 posts)Cruz. If Trump bails, his delegates and everyone else's are still bound on the first ballot, I believe. That's when Trump or his representative would release his delegates and they could go elsewhere. Anywhere.
My money is on Ryan, first...they are not just after the WH but they need turnout for down ballot, most critically. They need excitement and hope. Kasich or Jeb second, though neither brings excitement. Has to be seen as an electable moderate. Then for VP they would look to add a woman or someone of color since there aren't enough white male votes out there to get elected.
And...they aren't 'stealing' it...Trump is going to parachute away before he's the official nominee. Golden parachute.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)and incompetent time and time again; (2) Ted Cruz is going to control by far the biggest bloc of delegates there; (3) no sane Republican is going to want that nomination under those circumstances--they'd be left holding the bag and being blamed for engineering a coup by the Trumpistas.
wiggs
(7,809 posts)a case against typical RW policies that have been proven disastrous and doesn't promise anything better except for the top 1%, big corporations, and those who like polarization and hate. There's so much to go after....fine to tie Trump or any presidential nominee or down ballot republican to these, but the case has to be made about the gop record over the last 40 years. Compare dem record to gop record....don't get stuck on Trump's tweets.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Chemisse
(30,803 posts)In 8 years he will likely be the star of the Republican party and the leading candidate.
A bad loss this season would tarnish him.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)IMHO there's a strong chance he'll drop out. I don't think he'll be able to handle being called a loser.
I really don't understand why he's being so stagnant these past few weeks.
avebury
(10,951 posts)He is a loser no matter which way he turns.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)His campaign is a mess. He has spent all his time on free media play and had not tended to the garden. It is coming to bite him in the ass. Plus his campaign Mgr that just got fired sounds like an incompetent ass.
It seems like there is so much going on behind the scenes. He is feeling the lack of support now. He made a couple comments about that.
Chemisse
(30,803 posts)that he would have won, etc.
It would be a win-win in his mind, and he could go off and do his tv network.
LiberalFighter
(50,779 posts)MineralMan
(146,254 posts)I'm thinking Romney/Bachmann. I mean, she's a woman, too. That's all that matters, think the GOOPers.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)MineralMan
(146,254 posts)charlyvi
(6,537 posts)There's a whole universe out there that only she can see!
MineralMan
(146,254 posts)She's got "the sight," I'm certain.
liberalnarb
(4,532 posts)charlyvi
(6,537 posts)Keep the lights on tonight!
liberalnarb
(4,532 posts)Sleeping helps my anxiety! After this I may need meds!
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)liberalnarb
(4,532 posts)charlyvi
(6,537 posts)quick, save the children! Lock the door!
liberalnarb
(4,532 posts)charlyvi
(6,537 posts)Those eyes in his palms are the perfect touch. CREEPTASTIC!
Hekate
(90,551 posts)Chemisse
(30,803 posts)liberalnarb
(4,532 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)But it won't be someone like Palin or Bachmann, unless Trump is the nominee (in which case all bets are off). It'd be a more mainstream anti-Trump woman, such as Haley, so as to somewhat neutralize accusations of sexism.
3catwoman3
(23,946 posts)Either f those pairings is marrow-chilling.
onenote
(42,581 posts)Trump has to be a party to any deal that replaces him as the nominee or his supporters will go on a rampage. That eliminates Romney as well as Jeb, Cruz and most of the clown car occupants. Two possibilities from the candidates pool -- Christie and Kasich. And Mitch Daniels as the non candidate white knight with Haley as the veep nominee
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)If it is sought, he'd certainly object to Haley as a running mate. Replacing Trump will be less about winning the White House (I think the GOP is resigned to seeing Clinton become POTUS) and more about simply preserving the party (along with maintaining their majority in Congress).
I'm not sure all that many people are genuinely in support of Trump to the point that they'd make a stink about Trump being replaced (by protesting or not voting or voting for a 3rd party candidate). Bear in mind that the GOP field of candidates was huge and the non-Trump vote was split, which is one reason (though not the only reason) why he became the presumed nominee.
yardwork
(61,538 posts)Trump's base is rabid. They will be enraged if he is pushed out and they won't vote. This is approximately 1/3 to 1/2 of the Republican base.
The GOP has a big problem. Their best bet is to reform Trump and make him look better. So far, that effort is failing.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)But I question just how many of those who voted for him in the primary will be so enraged that they'll abstain from voting or vote 3rd party. I think we all have to question that, because we simply don't know. Are we talking 5 million? 10 million? 25 million?
I'm not sure the Republican Party would care all that much, so long as they maintain their majority in Congress. I think the GOP is resigned to seeing Clinton win the White House. They then have 4 years to tear her down and prepare for 2020.
I agree that the GOP is in a quandary. It's hard to say what would cause more long-term damage, replacing Trump or not replacing Trump.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)The GOP has been on the verge of splitting for a few years now. There is just no way they stay on board if something happens Trump's candidacy - even if he announces his withdrawal and begs them on his knees (ha!) to stay in the party, those people will assume he had a gun to his head and will never forgive the party elite. They would probably riot anyway just for the hell of it.
Hard core conservatives no longer care about the Republican party leadership or what the party used to stand for. The only thing the party has that they want is its national infrastructure.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I don't think that's enough to keep the GOP from considering a replacement, not when Trump running a presidential campaign for the next 5 months could do far more long-term damage to the Republican label.
Again, it isn't about winning in November. It's about the party's image and maintaining a majority in Congress.
That said, I'm not convinced he'll be replaced. In fact, I still think him being the nominee is the most likely outcome. But the Republican Party has to be considering a replacement. Their presumed nominee is a blatant bigot utterly lacking in substance and political experience.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)If I was GOP elite I'd be a lot more worried about saving a center-right party than I would about losing the toxic conservative fringe, most of whom have nowhere to go politically. Then again if I was GOP I probably wouldn't be thinking about the greater good so much as my own hide, and probably accepting the fact that since it's too late to have him killed I might as well ride the tiger.
The party is going to split one way or the other, as far as I can tell. The big question for me is whether the tea party types break off and found a smaller Conservative Party or the adults jump out of the car before it goes into the ditch and set up the New Whig Party.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)At least not within our current form of government. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)And of course there's a lesson for the Democrats here too.
Response to Garrett78 (Reply #55)
Name removed Message auto-removed
yardwork
(61,538 posts)Being fair never stopped the Bush clan.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)He knows how to run campaign, won't need a learning period. He would lose because the base would be furious, unless Trump himself bails due to family or health reasons.
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)in the primary, huh?
spinbaby
(15,088 posts)But Romney could also beat Clinton. A Romney campaign would be a lot harder to run against than the Trump gaff machine.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)For one thing, there's the potential for Trump and his supporters to raise a pretty big stink.
spinbaby
(15,088 posts)I want to win in a landslide so big they won't know what hit 'em. Trump's our candidate for that.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)TeamPooka
(24,205 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Especially if Trump and his supporters make a big stink, or if Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)Liberals hate Romney because he's a predatory capitalist (and all the arguments that worked against him last time will be just as effective this time), but if anything conservatives hate him even more. The people at Free Republic absolutely loathe him, expressing support for him over there is enough to get banned. He is absolute poison to their base, infact last time the nastiest anti-Romney memes were coming from conservatives rather than liberals.
Maru Kitteh
(28,313 posts)He won't be pushed away, his ego simply will NOT allow for it. I think that man will create a crater of debt the likes of which have never been seen before to keep from being humiliated in front of the whole world.
I think he genuinely believes he can run his campaign on scratch, keep gunning for free airtime and the polls are all wrong because the media's against him and America will vote him in because - well, he's Donald Trump.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)It would not surprise me one bit if he's of 2 minds on this. On one hand, convincing himself that he can win. On the other hand, considering a way to drop out while saving face.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)all the way to November, and his buttons are very easily pushed. With Warren, Obama, Biden, and Big Dawg playing relief. I don't understand how his ego survives this, unless he just stays in for spite.
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)If he's the nominee, Clinton wins 350+ electoral college votes.
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)Kingofalldems
(38,421 posts)What should we do? Concede? I'm scared!
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Historically, they aren't. Carter was going to beat Reagan, Dukakis was going to beat Bush, Bush was going to beat Clinton. There were even polls that showed Dole would beat Clinton and that McCain would beat Obama.
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,441 posts)PA hasn't voted for a GOP President since 1988. Last election, the media finally stopped calling PA a "swing state" but I noticed some media are trying to do it again.
As an interesting side note however, I did hear on the news here in Philly today that there is some PAC called "Amish PAC" that the Trump organization is apparently using to try to rally Amish in PA & OH to support him. They very rarely if ever vote (in fact, when I heard the story, I thought - wait? They don't normally vote... Maybe they are thinking Mennonites instead of Amish...?) But there it is.
BootinUp
(47,076 posts)He is starting to make contact with the usual sleaze that backs the puke party, including the evangelicals. It WILL be a historical loss, but the R party is stuck with him.
yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)yellerpup
(12,252 posts)and has a position of authority right now. He's already made his first ad (although he said it wasn't) just in case Trump won enough delegates. His lips say, "no" but he is a patriot who 'loves this country' and will answer the call of his party.
TeamPooka
(24,205 posts)anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)I mean of all the possible substitute candidates he seems the least likely. The GOP is half-expecting to lose in November anyway and if Trump bails or appears to be pushed it will be a virtual certainty, so why not run someone half-way sympathetic in the hope that the same person would look like a more viable candidate in 4 years?
If I was the last sane person in the GOP I'd try to run Marco Rubio - he's a doofus and a pretty weak senator, but he's good-looking and friendly and charismatic and could run a campaign of supporting down-ticket candidates while playing it safe in the Presidential race. after the shitshow of Donald Trump people would excuse him for a poor GOP showing come November, and then in 4 years time he might seem like a credible alternative to a second Clinton term.
I rather doubt Romney wants to cement his standing as an electoral loser either, why put himself and his family through the wringer again?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Rubio would only if he doesn't have aspirations to run again in the future. I think someone like Gingrich or Kasich is more likely. Someone who doesn't really care if they lose, because they aren't ever going to have another shot at the nomination.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)I actually think it would work great for Rubio to run a losing campaign we here he's not expected to win the Presidency, just to protect the down-ticket races. He could play softball with Hillary and tout his principles on some conservative shibboleths like abortion or somesuch and lose without deeply offending anyone. Losing the first time you run for President isn't a dreadful badge of shame, quite a few Presidents lost on their first bid for office.
Gingrich, I don't think so, he just rubs everyone the wrong way. Kasich was the first person Ithought of but if Trump is out then all the Trump fans will label Kasich a traitor because he was the last on standing. They don't like Rubio either but he's cocky and that appeals to them.
ailsagirl
(22,885 posts)mackdaddy
(1,522 posts)Either would have the big money backing.
SoCalMusicLover
(3,194 posts)The party and the establishment they represent, would surely support a Romney run. But the voters, the rabble that form the base of the repub party, would be pissed off that their racist, bigoted golden boy has been given the shaft.
Romney would be DOA. Trump, while wounded and behind, still has a shot.
The wealthy and elite are the ones who put the repubs over the top when they win. But the base, and the 20% of the population who are either religious nuts or morons, are vital to competing in the election, whether to give the elders a chance at putting them over the top, or fixing it so that it looks as if they did.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Trump is DOA and always was. See post #55 (and surrounding posts).
I think the GOP is resigned to Clinton winning. But they need to protect the Republican label and avoid losing their majority in Congress.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)As bad as Trump is, anyone else trying to jump in now would do worse because of the compressed timeframe they are working with and every day that passes with them not in full campaign mode working to catch up would make it more difficult.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Not having campaigned during the primary season wouldn't be that big of a deal in Romney's case. He'd be able to pull together a staff, volunteers and donors quite easily and quickly.
But I'm not of the opinion that Romney is a likely replacement. If Trump is replaced, I think Kasich is more probable.
A replacement would get more GOP support and Super PAC support than Trump will. If Trump is the nominee, there will be attacks on Clinton and an effort to help the down-ticket Republicans, but outright support for Trump will be limited.
SDJay
(1,089 posts)Yes, I think Willard would be the choice. He's about as popular as a recurring rash, but compared to Drumpf he's a godsend for those who want the repukes to get anything other than the crazy vote.
That said, I think and I hope that the repukes will instead spend months trying to spit-shine their turd of a candidate. I really think he's such a doofus that the stink of Drumpf could historically turn the makeup of our government on its ear. I mean that the White House, the Senate AND the House could all go to the good guys. Not to mention, the Supreme Court would be flipped and in safe hands for decades.
I want Drumpf to stay in it, and I want everyone to understand that the repukes are in a generational freeze-out of government in every branch because of Drumpf and his racist supporters. I want them politically isolated after November.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)And I don't see Hillary having any problems beating Rmoney, or Jebby if it came to that.
The only thug that would give her a little competition might be the Governor of Ohio and 3/4's of his own party would hate his guts.
The republican party is incredibly weak right now as a national party. The radical factions that control it will not allow a non fire breathing hardcore rightist presidential candidate to gain the nomination.
Its a great time to be the democratic candidate for Prez.
Hillary will make some more history this fall IMO.
Hekate
(90,551 posts)...the GOP.
Seriously, one of Mitt Romney's greatest assets is his calm, cool, and patrician aspect.
Yet a majority of Repubs who showed up to vote in the primaries went for a vile, spittle flecked, violent, fascist. Go figure?
I have no idea how the Party is going to pull this off, but your analysis of the players seems about right.
TeddyR
(2,493 posts)But if he isn't, Ryan is the Republican with the best chance to win. He'll keep all the Republican votes plus draw a fair bit of independents.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)His entire strategy for the last few years was to try to win the Repug nominee by behaving the way he has, knowing he would have some ground to make up for the general. I just dont think he and his crew thought it would be this bad.
I'm sure he still thinks he can win this. As long as that is the case its virtually impossible for the GOP to get rid of him.
Again, it would take a majority of his own delegates abandoning him at the convention and voting for a rules change that would disqualify him.
Vinca
(50,236 posts)Response to Vinca (Reply #82)
Name removed Message auto-removed
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)- Building the infrastructure needed to mount a national campaign.
- winning over the GOP base
- Dealing with Clinton and how the Clinton campaign would pounce all over any kind of shenanigans involving a new GOP nominee at this point
- Preparing for the convention
- Preparing a set of policy positions and preparing for the debates
- Building a fundraising apparatus to raise the massive amounts of money you need to compete
All of this is tough enough if you have been campaigning for a year and building to all of it. Starting from scratch now and putting this all together enough to mount a viable G. E. Campaign when you aren't the person your base voted for to begin with?
Anyone who replaces Trump would have a very difficult time being even marginally competitive.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)They're going to calculate that the least bad option is to simply let Trump lose and hope they can get somebody less overtly repugnant for their 2020 nominee.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I think Trump will probably be nominated, but I would not be shocked if enough delegates abstain and force a brokered convention.
I think the Republican Party has pretty much accepted that Clinton will be the next POTUS. But 5 more months of Trump campaigning could do serious damage to the Republican brand. The GOP is in quite a quandary.
Vinca
(50,236 posts)Quite frankly, given the new rules in this forum, I don't know if I'm allowed to say anything even slightly questionable about Hillary without getting the boot. The fact is, if they somehow drafted Romney and dumped Trump, Hillary would have something to worry about.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)dpibel
(2,826 posts)Was discussing with my wife earlier.
Bloomberg doesn't have the loser baggage of Romney or the primary gaggle.
Might put NY in play.
Could put together a team in short order.
Lots o' money.
Doesn't come across as a lewnie.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)And no, he would not put NY in play.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)is obvious in everything he has said and done.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)In that scenario, he'd actually have a chance of at least preventing anyone from reaching 270. But with Clinton winning as expected, Bloomberg isn't going to run.
spooky3
(34,403 posts)athena
(4,187 posts)Is it "Our money"? Or is it "rrr-money"?
merrily
(45,251 posts)He'd make a better contrast to Hillary. And I agree with those who say not to count out Jeb!.