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MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 12:40 PM Jun 2016

If Trump Bails, I Think Romney Would be the Nominee

The rest of the GOP clown car from 2016 lost badly to Trump, and are branded this year as losers.
RMoney has lost in two tries for the Presidency, so he has lots of experience running, and seems to be positioning himself as the go-to guy if Trump implodes or intentionally bails.

The GOP would be in a complete state of panic, and would be looking for someone to step in who had not been destroyed during the primary race. Weak as he is as a Presidential candidate, he's about as good as the GOP can find, really. I think his status as a two-time loser would prevent him from having a chance, but I don't think any of the other possibilities would have a chance, either.

Jeb Bush, the other obvious choice, failed miserably in the primaries, and is pretty much finished.

Hillary Clinton can beat Romney, but it will be closer than against any of the other possibilities, I think.

Frankly, I hope Trump sticks it out and we have the resultant landslide for Clinton. I'm less confident that he will hang in there, though, than I once was.

Thoughts?

104 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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If Trump Bails, I Think Romney Would be the Nominee (Original Post) MineralMan Jun 2016 OP
i can't see trump stepping aside and i can't see them paying him enough to do so. unblock Jun 2016 #1
Trump being the nominee still seems like the most probable scenario. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #6
Romney would go down in GOP history as an anti-legend - lose to a black guy and then a woman. TwilightZone Jun 2016 #2
Romney's as good a sacrificial lamb as anyone. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #3
But why would they do it? PJMcK Jun 2016 #68
To be in the spotlight and to make big bucks afterward in the private sector. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #70
it would have to be drray23 Jun 2016 #4
That's a possibility. MineralMan Jun 2016 #5
Appears to be the direction at this time. Wellstone ruled Jun 2016 #14
Exactly what I have been thinking too. They think he'll get his voters to vote for him again, plus L. Coyote Jun 2016 #7
And the closer the election the more likely the GOP is to maintain majorities in Congress. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #13
If Romney steps in, Utah will be excited. Sheepshank Jun 2016 #8
They can steal it from Trump, but can they steal it from Cruz too? geek tragedy Jun 2016 #9
Would have to be a candidate that has a better general election chance than Trump or wiggs Jun 2016 #78
that makes sense on paper, but (1) the Republican establishment has proved itself impotent geek tragedy Jun 2016 #79
There are numerous scenarios. Which is why Clinton should overall pursue wiggs Jun 2016 #87
Clinton hit Trump on his standard GOP economic policies today nt geek tragedy Jun 2016 #93
Ryan would be a fool to step into a candidate opening in 2016. Chemisse Jun 2016 #101
I think when Trump realizes in how bad it's looking for him NWCorona Jun 2016 #10
Dropping out of the race does make Trump a loser. avebury Jun 2016 #54
I agree with you but I don't think Trump sees it like us. NWCorona Jun 2016 #64
He has no money, there is internal fighting, he has no rnc support AgadorSparticus Jun 2016 #99
I agree. And he'll have some excuse, circa Ross Perot, so he can still boast Chemisse Jun 2016 #102
Romney/Palin? :) LiberalFighter Jun 2016 #11
LOL! MineralMan Jun 2016 #12
The girl with the faraway eyes. charlyvi Jun 2016 #22
She sees far more than the rest of us, I'm sure. MineralMan Jun 2016 #24
Much more charlyvi Jun 2016 #28
I have no doubt that's true. MineralMan Jun 2016 #30
Good god liberalnarb Jun 2016 #52
Exactly! charlyvi Jun 2016 #56
Thanks a lot! liberalnarb Jun 2016 #57
I know, right! The horror! eom charlyvi Jun 2016 #58
betcha I can make it worse... liberalnarb Jun 2016 #59
GAH! My eyes! charlyvi Jun 2016 #60
Teehee... liberalnarb Jun 2016 #61
O SHIT! charlyvi Jun 2016 #63
Holy shit. That must be what Boehner sees when he looks at Cruz. Hekate Jun 2016 #73
Yes! Cruz/Bachman - the demon team! n/t Chemisse Jun 2016 #103
Shes coming... liberalnarb Jun 2016 #75
A woman as running mate wouldn't surprise me in the least. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #15
Oh, Gawd. 3catwoman3 Jun 2016 #25
Disagree. It can't be someone that trump had dumped all over onenote Jun 2016 #16
I don't think Trump's input will be sought. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #17
I disagree about Trump supporters not being mad. yardwork Jun 2016 #19
I didn't say they wouldn't be mad. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #21
I'd say about 8-10 million anigbrowl Jun 2016 #45
8-10 million spread out over 50 states, many of which are deep 'red' regardless. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #55
I rather agree anigbrowl Jun 2016 #62
Duverger's Law suggests no 3rd party will succeed. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #65
Agreed, hence the life-or-death nature of the party's internal conflicts anigbrowl Jun 2016 #80
Message auto-removed Name removed Jun 2016 #83
I tend to agree. Don't count JEB! out, though. yardwork Jun 2016 #18
Me too. charlyvi Jun 2016 #20
He sure showed he "knows how to run a campaign" rjsquirrel Jun 2016 #76
Yes, Clinton could beat Romney spinbaby Jun 2016 #23
Romney would likely make it a closer contest, but I seriously doubt he'd win. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #29
I don't want a closer contest spinbaby Jun 2016 #44
Sure, but we can't control who the Republican Party nominates. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #46
There is no reason to believe the electoral vote would be any different than 2012 if Romney ran TeamPooka Jun 2016 #38
And he could potentially do worse. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #47
Nah no chance anigbrowl Jun 2016 #42
His ego will not allow for it. And I really don't see a scenario where he is removed. Maru Kitteh Jun 2016 #26
How will his ego deal with the thrashing he receives in November? Garrett78 Jun 2016 #35
And Hillary is going to push his buttons charlyvi Jun 2016 #51
Why would Trump drop out if he's down just five points to Clinton after the week he's had? BlueNoMatterWho Jun 2016 #27
Because even he knows those polls are meaningless. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #31
I hope you're right. But being neck and neck in swing states like OH and PA has me concerned. BlueNoMatterWho Jun 2016 #33
Concerned is right. Kingofalldems Jun 2016 #40
Neck and neck if you think those polls are actually meaningful at this juncture. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #41
Here's hoping! Let us know when they are meaningful. :) BlueNoMatterWho Jun 2016 #48
He's not going to win PA BumRushDaShow Jun 2016 #74
My opinion is that Trump is not dropping out, or being kicked out. BootinUp Jun 2016 #32
No bailing - just that special moment in a winning campaign! yallerdawg Jun 2016 #34
Paul Ryan is drawing the platform, yellerpup Jun 2016 #36
I don't think he bails. Too big an ego to quit. The man is dangerous. GOTV. nt TeamPooka Jun 2016 #37
Romney's a two-time loser who is hated by both conservatives and most liberals anigbrowl Jun 2016 #39
Romney might if he truly believes he can win, but I pretty much agree with you. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #43
Yeah maybe anigbrowl Jun 2016 #53
The repukes don't exactly have a line of stellar candidates waiting in the wings!! ailsagirl Jun 2016 #49
Ryan or Kasich for the "less crazy" vote. mackdaddy Jun 2016 #50
They Are Much Better Off With Trump SoCalMusicLover Jun 2016 #66
Romney, I think, would make it a closer contest. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #67
I don't think so, See my #89. stevenleser Jun 2016 #91
Romney's run before, though. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #96
In Your Scenario SDJay Jun 2016 #69
If Trump is forced out the tea baggers will finish off the republican party for us workinclasszero Jun 2016 #71
Mittens looks better all the time, and I am really hoping for Convention Chaos that will cripple.... Hekate Jun 2016 #72
Trump will be the nominee TeddyR Jun 2016 #77
He won't bail, while he didnt think it would be this bad, he did expect something like this. stevenleser Jun 2016 #81
You better hope Trump stays in. Vinca Jun 2016 #82
Message auto-removed Name removed Jun 2016 #85
Nope, at this point it's too late for anyone else from a number of standpoints stevenleser Jun 2016 #89
Which is why this "maybe the GOPigs will replace Trump" fantasy will never happen. Lord Magus Jun 2016 #92
The danger isn't that Clinton will win, it's that Trump will do long-term damage to the GOP brand. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #97
I think people interpreted my post as pro-Trump which was definitely not intended. Vinca Jun 2016 #100
Totally moot point. Trump is not bailing. RBInMaine Jun 2016 #84
Bloomberg dpibel Jun 2016 #86
Bloomberg isn't exactly well-liked by Republicans. Lord Magus Jun 2016 #88
Agreed, plus he knows he can't beat Hillary and frankly doesn't want to and that stevenleser Jun 2016 #90
Bloomberg was only going to run if both Trump and Sanders were the nominees. Garrett78 Jun 2016 #98
I agree with all your points. spooky3 Jun 2016 #94
How is RMoney pronounced? athena Jun 2016 #95
Doubt it. He's a two time loser. He lost big time in 2012. Maybe running mate Ryan, though. merrily Jun 2016 #104

unblock

(52,116 posts)
1. i can't see trump stepping aside and i can't see them paying him enough to do so.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 12:47 PM
Jun 2016

i'd also expect the trump loyalists to make matters even worse and uglier if he's not the nominee for any reason.

i also think there would be hell to pay if they reversed the primary result by a rule change after the fact at the convention.


in a way, they're better off cutting their losses. let trump run and flounder, and run an explicit campaign to promote congressional candidates. just run an anti-hillary campaign and hope they can keep both houses in congress.

i think all the talk about anyone else being the republican nominee is fighting the last war / wishful thinking.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
6. Trump being the nominee still seems like the most probable scenario.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 12:59 PM
Jun 2016

But, as you point out, maintaining their majority in Congress will be the Republican Party's top priority. Replacing Trump could potentially help in that endeavor, because even if he were to run as a 3rd party candidate, the more right wingers that are running the more likely Republicans are to perform well in down-ticket races.

On the other hand, it could totally backfire and result in depressed turnout on their side. I suspect you're right in that the focus will be on winning congressional races and attacking Clinton in hopes that they can deny her a "mandate."

TwilightZone

(25,427 posts)
2. Romney would go down in GOP history as an anti-legend - lose to a black guy and then a woman.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 12:49 PM
Jun 2016

I think the GOP is stuck with Trump and Trump is stuck with the GOP. They're going to figure out that they're stuck with him and half-hardheartedly dump money into the race hoping for a miracle.

Even if they replace him, I think they're sunk. It might play well with the GOP base (minus the Trump supporters), but many would see it as disingenuous, at best.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
3. Romney's as good a sacrificial lamb as anyone.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 12:51 PM
Jun 2016

As I wrote in one of the bazillion other threads on this topic, it'll be someone for whom 2016 represents their only chance. In other words, it won't be someone like Ryan, who undoubtedly has his eyes on 2020 or 2024.

It could be Romney, Gingrich, Kasich, etc. Someone who knows he/she will never again have a shot at being the Republican nominee for POTUS. Someone who will then pick a woman or POC as a running mate in a pathetic attempt to neutralize accusations of sexism and racism.

PJMcK

(21,995 posts)
68. But why would they do it?
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 05:12 PM
Jun 2016

They would know they were going to lose. What's the upside for Mr. Romney, former-Speaker Gingrich, Governor Kasich or any other possible candidate in that age group? The GOP is already deeply worried about the election and if they replace Donald Trump, the GOP knows that they'll lose up- and down-ticket races. For the replacement candidate, is the highly unlikely possibility of a fluke win really that much of a balance to the grueling humiliation that is a presidential campaign?

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
70. To be in the spotlight and to make big bucks afterward in the private sector.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 05:22 PM
Jun 2016

Or, if I'm being less cynical, to help preserve the Republican label. And with a big enough ego, someone like Gingrich could convince himself that winning is possible.

Many members of the GOP might think replacing Trump will improve their chances of maintaining their majority in Congress.

drray23

(7,615 posts)
4. it would have to be
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 12:52 PM
Jun 2016

either Romney or Jeb, both of whom have the apparatus to quickly put a campaign together and get money flowing from donors.

The gop could get rid of Trump simply by attrition. If they dont give him funds he will resign or bankrupt himself.

They could just tell him to suspend before the convention and make a deal with him whereas they would pay off his campaign debt including the 55 millions in loans he made to his campaign. Voila ! No need for rule changes or other form of chaos.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
5. That's a possibility.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 12:53 PM
Jun 2016

I just don't know. I also think Trump might implode and pull out himself. I don't think there's a lot of strength under that facade.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
14. Appears to be the direction at this time.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 01:19 PM
Jun 2016

Like you,Willard can ramp up his campaign within two to three days. Anyone else would take at least a month. Willard has the Missionary Cadre that can be knocking on doors and doing lit drops within minutes.

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
7. Exactly what I have been thinking too. They think he'll get his voters to vote for him again, plus
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 01:06 PM
Jun 2016

he won't be facing an incumbent President. However, the electoral map so favors the Dems, he would only be a stop-gap to prevent a sweep election.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
13. And the closer the election the more likely the GOP is to maintain majorities in Congress.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 01:18 PM
Jun 2016

Replacing Trump or having multiple 3rd party right wing candidates is one way to boost right wing turnout.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
9. They can steal it from Trump, but can they steal it from Cruz too?
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 01:16 PM
Jun 2016

He has easily the second most delegates, and a lot of the Trump delegates are actually Cruz supporters.

wiggs

(7,809 posts)
78. Would have to be a candidate that has a better general election chance than Trump or
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 07:11 PM
Jun 2016

Cruz. If Trump bails, his delegates and everyone else's are still bound on the first ballot, I believe. That's when Trump or his representative would release his delegates and they could go elsewhere. Anywhere.

My money is on Ryan, first...they are not just after the WH but they need turnout for down ballot, most critically. They need excitement and hope. Kasich or Jeb second, though neither brings excitement. Has to be seen as an electable moderate. Then for VP they would look to add a woman or someone of color since there aren't enough white male votes out there to get elected.

And...they aren't 'stealing' it...Trump is going to parachute away before he's the official nominee. Golden parachute.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
79. that makes sense on paper, but (1) the Republican establishment has proved itself impotent
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 07:14 PM
Jun 2016

and incompetent time and time again; (2) Ted Cruz is going to control by far the biggest bloc of delegates there; (3) no sane Republican is going to want that nomination under those circumstances--they'd be left holding the bag and being blamed for engineering a coup by the Trumpistas.

wiggs

(7,809 posts)
87. There are numerous scenarios. Which is why Clinton should overall pursue
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 08:36 PM
Jun 2016

a case against typical RW policies that have been proven disastrous and doesn't promise anything better except for the top 1%, big corporations, and those who like polarization and hate. There's so much to go after....fine to tie Trump or any presidential nominee or down ballot republican to these, but the case has to be made about the gop record over the last 40 years. Compare dem record to gop record....don't get stuck on Trump's tweets.

Chemisse

(30,803 posts)
101. Ryan would be a fool to step into a candidate opening in 2016.
Wed Jun 22, 2016, 07:50 AM
Jun 2016

In 8 years he will likely be the star of the Republican party and the leading candidate.

A bad loss this season would tarnish him.

NWCorona

(8,541 posts)
10. I think when Trump realizes in how bad it's looking for him
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 01:16 PM
Jun 2016

IMHO there's a strong chance he'll drop out. I don't think he'll be able to handle being called a loser.

I really don't understand why he's being so stagnant these past few weeks.

AgadorSparticus

(7,963 posts)
99. He has no money, there is internal fighting, he has no rnc support
Wed Jun 22, 2016, 07:21 AM
Jun 2016

His campaign is a mess. He has spent all his time on free media play and had not tended to the garden. It is coming to bite him in the ass. Plus his campaign Mgr that just got fired sounds like an incompetent ass.

It seems like there is so much going on behind the scenes. He is feeling the lack of support now. He made a couple comments about that.

Chemisse

(30,803 posts)
102. I agree. And he'll have some excuse, circa Ross Perot, so he can still boast
Wed Jun 22, 2016, 07:52 AM
Jun 2016

that he would have won, etc.

It would be a win-win in his mind, and he could go off and do his tv network.

MineralMan

(146,254 posts)
12. LOL!
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 01:17 PM
Jun 2016

I'm thinking Romney/Bachmann. I mean, she's a woman, too. That's all that matters, think the GOOPers.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
15. A woman as running mate wouldn't surprise me in the least.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 01:24 PM
Jun 2016

But it won't be someone like Palin or Bachmann, unless Trump is the nominee (in which case all bets are off). It'd be a more mainstream anti-Trump woman, such as Haley, so as to somewhat neutralize accusations of sexism.

onenote

(42,581 posts)
16. Disagree. It can't be someone that trump had dumped all over
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 01:27 PM
Jun 2016

Trump has to be a party to any deal that replaces him as the nominee or his supporters will go on a rampage. That eliminates Romney as well as Jeb, Cruz and most of the clown car occupants. Two possibilities from the candidates pool -- Christie and Kasich. And Mitch Daniels as the non candidate white knight with Haley as the veep nominee

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
17. I don't think Trump's input will be sought.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 01:48 PM
Jun 2016

If it is sought, he'd certainly object to Haley as a running mate. Replacing Trump will be less about winning the White House (I think the GOP is resigned to seeing Clinton become POTUS) and more about simply preserving the party (along with maintaining their majority in Congress).

I'm not sure all that many people are genuinely in support of Trump to the point that they'd make a stink about Trump being replaced (by protesting or not voting or voting for a 3rd party candidate). Bear in mind that the GOP field of candidates was huge and the non-Trump vote was split, which is one reason (though not the only reason) why he became the presumed nominee.

yardwork

(61,538 posts)
19. I disagree about Trump supporters not being mad.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 02:02 PM
Jun 2016

Trump's base is rabid. They will be enraged if he is pushed out and they won't vote. This is approximately 1/3 to 1/2 of the Republican base.

The GOP has a big problem. Their best bet is to reform Trump and make him look better. So far, that effort is failing.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
21. I didn't say they wouldn't be mad.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 02:16 PM
Jun 2016

But I question just how many of those who voted for him in the primary will be so enraged that they'll abstain from voting or vote 3rd party. I think we all have to question that, because we simply don't know. Are we talking 5 million? 10 million? 25 million?

I'm not sure the Republican Party would care all that much, so long as they maintain their majority in Congress. I think the GOP is resigned to seeing Clinton win the White House. They then have 4 years to tear her down and prepare for 2020.

I agree that the GOP is in a quandary. It's hard to say what would cause more long-term damage, replacing Trump or not replacing Trump.

 

anigbrowl

(13,889 posts)
45. I'd say about 8-10 million
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:37 PM
Jun 2016

The GOP has been on the verge of splitting for a few years now. There is just no way they stay on board if something happens Trump's candidacy - even if he announces his withdrawal and begs them on his knees (ha!) to stay in the party, those people will assume he had a gun to his head and will never forgive the party elite. They would probably riot anyway just for the hell of it.

Hard core conservatives no longer care about the Republican party leadership or what the party used to stand for. The only thing the party has that they want is its national infrastructure.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
55. 8-10 million spread out over 50 states, many of which are deep 'red' regardless.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 04:02 PM
Jun 2016

I don't think that's enough to keep the GOP from considering a replacement, not when Trump running a presidential campaign for the next 5 months could do far more long-term damage to the Republican label.

Again, it isn't about winning in November. It's about the party's image and maintaining a majority in Congress.

That said, I'm not convinced he'll be replaced. In fact, I still think him being the nominee is the most likely outcome. But the Republican Party has to be considering a replacement. Their presumed nominee is a blatant bigot utterly lacking in substance and political experience.

 

anigbrowl

(13,889 posts)
62. I rather agree
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 04:16 PM
Jun 2016

If I was GOP elite I'd be a lot more worried about saving a center-right party than I would about losing the toxic conservative fringe, most of whom have nowhere to go politically. Then again if I was GOP I probably wouldn't be thinking about the greater good so much as my own hide, and probably accepting the fact that since it's too late to have him killed I might as well ride the tiger.

The party is going to split one way or the other, as far as I can tell. The big question for me is whether the tea party types break off and found a smaller Conservative Party or the adults jump out of the car before it goes into the ditch and set up the New Whig Party.

 

anigbrowl

(13,889 posts)
80. Agreed, hence the life-or-death nature of the party's internal conflicts
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 07:17 PM
Jun 2016

And of course there's a lesson for the Democrats here too.

Response to Garrett78 (Reply #55)

charlyvi

(6,537 posts)
20. Me too.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 02:10 PM
Jun 2016

He knows how to run campaign, won't need a learning period. He would lose because the base would be furious, unless Trump himself bails due to family or health reasons.

spinbaby

(15,088 posts)
23. Yes, Clinton could beat Romney
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 02:56 PM
Jun 2016

But Romney could also beat Clinton. A Romney campaign would be a lot harder to run against than the Trump gaff machine.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
29. Romney would likely make it a closer contest, but I seriously doubt he'd win.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:14 PM
Jun 2016

For one thing, there's the potential for Trump and his supporters to raise a pretty big stink.

spinbaby

(15,088 posts)
44. I don't want a closer contest
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:33 PM
Jun 2016

I want to win in a landslide so big they won't know what hit 'em. Trump's our candidate for that.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
47. And he could potentially do worse.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:41 PM
Jun 2016

Especially if Trump and his supporters make a big stink, or if Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate.

 

anigbrowl

(13,889 posts)
42. Nah no chance
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:30 PM
Jun 2016

Liberals hate Romney because he's a predatory capitalist (and all the arguments that worked against him last time will be just as effective this time), but if anything conservatives hate him even more. The people at Free Republic absolutely loathe him, expressing support for him over there is enough to get banned. He is absolute poison to their base, infact last time the nastiest anti-Romney memes were coming from conservatives rather than liberals.

Maru Kitteh

(28,313 posts)
26. His ego will not allow for it. And I really don't see a scenario where he is removed.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:11 PM
Jun 2016

He won't be pushed away, his ego simply will NOT allow for it. I think that man will create a crater of debt the likes of which have never been seen before to keep from being humiliated in front of the whole world.

I think he genuinely believes he can run his campaign on scratch, keep gunning for free airtime and the polls are all wrong because the media's against him and America will vote him in because - well, he's Donald Trump.


Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
35. How will his ego deal with the thrashing he receives in November?
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:19 PM
Jun 2016

It would not surprise me one bit if he's of 2 minds on this. On one hand, convincing himself that he can win. On the other hand, considering a way to drop out while saving face.

charlyvi

(6,537 posts)
51. And Hillary is going to push his buttons
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:45 PM
Jun 2016

all the way to November, and his buttons are very easily pushed. With Warren, Obama, Biden, and Big Dawg playing relief. I don't understand how his ego survives this, unless he just stays in for spite.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
31. Because even he knows those polls are meaningless.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:15 PM
Jun 2016

If he's the nominee, Clinton wins 350+ electoral college votes.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
41. Neck and neck if you think those polls are actually meaningful at this juncture.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:29 PM
Jun 2016

Historically, they aren't. Carter was going to beat Reagan, Dukakis was going to beat Bush, Bush was going to beat Clinton. There were even polls that showed Dole would beat Clinton and that McCain would beat Obama.

BumRushDaShow

(128,441 posts)
74. He's not going to win PA
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 06:53 PM
Jun 2016

PA hasn't voted for a GOP President since 1988. Last election, the media finally stopped calling PA a "swing state" but I noticed some media are trying to do it again.

As an interesting side note however, I did hear on the news here in Philly today that there is some PAC called "Amish PAC" that the Trump organization is apparently using to try to rally Amish in PA & OH to support him. They very rarely if ever vote (in fact, when I heard the story, I thought - wait? They don't normally vote... Maybe they are thinking Mennonites instead of Amish...?) But there it is.

BootinUp

(47,076 posts)
32. My opinion is that Trump is not dropping out, or being kicked out.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:16 PM
Jun 2016

He is starting to make contact with the usual sleaze that backs the puke party, including the evangelicals. It WILL be a historical loss, but the R party is stuck with him.

yellerpup

(12,252 posts)
36. Paul Ryan is drawing the platform,
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:21 PM
Jun 2016

and has a position of authority right now. He's already made his first ad (although he said it wasn't) just in case Trump won enough delegates. His lips say, "no" but he is a patriot who 'loves this country' and will answer the call of his party.

 

anigbrowl

(13,889 posts)
39. Romney's a two-time loser who is hated by both conservatives and most liberals
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:26 PM
Jun 2016

I mean of all the possible substitute candidates he seems the least likely. The GOP is half-expecting to lose in November anyway and if Trump bails or appears to be pushed it will be a virtual certainty, so why not run someone half-way sympathetic in the hope that the same person would look like a more viable candidate in 4 years?

If I was the last sane person in the GOP I'd try to run Marco Rubio - he's a doofus and a pretty weak senator, but he's good-looking and friendly and charismatic and could run a campaign of supporting down-ticket candidates while playing it safe in the Presidential race. after the shitshow of Donald Trump people would excuse him for a poor GOP showing come November, and then in 4 years time he might seem like a credible alternative to a second Clinton term.

I rather doubt Romney wants to cement his standing as an electoral loser either, why put himself and his family through the wringer again?

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
43. Romney might if he truly believes he can win, but I pretty much agree with you.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:33 PM
Jun 2016

Rubio would only if he doesn't have aspirations to run again in the future. I think someone like Gingrich or Kasich is more likely. Someone who doesn't really care if they lose, because they aren't ever going to have another shot at the nomination.

 

anigbrowl

(13,889 posts)
53. Yeah maybe
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 03:49 PM
Jun 2016

I actually think it would work great for Rubio to run a losing campaign we here he's not expected to win the Presidency, just to protect the down-ticket races. He could play softball with Hillary and tout his principles on some conservative shibboleths like abortion or somesuch and lose without deeply offending anyone. Losing the first time you run for President isn't a dreadful badge of shame, quite a few Presidents lost on their first bid for office.

Gingrich, I don't think so, he just rubs everyone the wrong way. Kasich was the first person Ithought of but if Trump is out then all the Trump fans will label Kasich a traitor because he was the last on standing. They don't like Rubio either but he's cocky and that appeals to them.

 

SoCalMusicLover

(3,194 posts)
66. They Are Much Better Off With Trump
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 04:49 PM
Jun 2016

The party and the establishment they represent, would surely support a Romney run. But the voters, the rabble that form the base of the repub party, would be pissed off that their racist, bigoted golden boy has been given the shaft.

Romney would be DOA. Trump, while wounded and behind, still has a shot.

The wealthy and elite are the ones who put the repubs over the top when they win. But the base, and the 20% of the population who are either religious nuts or morons, are vital to competing in the election, whether to give the elders a chance at putting them over the top, or fixing it so that it looks as if they did.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
67. Romney, I think, would make it a closer contest.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 05:01 PM
Jun 2016

Trump is DOA and always was. See post #55 (and surrounding posts).

I think the GOP is resigned to Clinton winning. But they need to protect the Republican label and avoid losing their majority in Congress.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
91. I don't think so, See my #89.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 09:44 PM
Jun 2016

As bad as Trump is, anyone else trying to jump in now would do worse because of the compressed timeframe they are working with and every day that passes with them not in full campaign mode working to catch up would make it more difficult.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
96. Romney's run before, though.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 10:52 PM
Jun 2016

Not having campaigned during the primary season wouldn't be that big of a deal in Romney's case. He'd be able to pull together a staff, volunteers and donors quite easily and quickly.

But I'm not of the opinion that Romney is a likely replacement. If Trump is replaced, I think Kasich is more probable.

A replacement would get more GOP support and Super PAC support than Trump will. If Trump is the nominee, there will be attacks on Clinton and an effort to help the down-ticket Republicans, but outright support for Trump will be limited.

SDJay

(1,089 posts)
69. In Your Scenario
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 05:17 PM
Jun 2016

Yes, I think Willard would be the choice. He's about as popular as a recurring rash, but compared to Drumpf he's a godsend for those who want the repukes to get anything other than the crazy vote.

That said, I think and I hope that the repukes will instead spend months trying to spit-shine their turd of a candidate. I really think he's such a doofus that the stink of Drumpf could historically turn the makeup of our government on its ear. I mean that the White House, the Senate AND the House could all go to the good guys. Not to mention, the Supreme Court would be flipped and in safe hands for decades.

I want Drumpf to stay in it, and I want everyone to understand that the repukes are in a generational freeze-out of government in every branch because of Drumpf and his racist supporters. I want them politically isolated after November.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
71. If Trump is forced out the tea baggers will finish off the republican party for us
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 05:34 PM
Jun 2016

And I don't see Hillary having any problems beating Rmoney, or Jebby if it came to that.

The only thug that would give her a little competition might be the Governor of Ohio and 3/4's of his own party would hate his guts.

The republican party is incredibly weak right now as a national party. The radical factions that control it will not allow a non fire breathing hardcore rightist presidential candidate to gain the nomination.

Its a great time to be the democratic candidate for Prez.

Hillary will make some more history this fall IMO.

Hekate

(90,551 posts)
72. Mittens looks better all the time, and I am really hoping for Convention Chaos that will cripple....
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 06:20 PM
Jun 2016

...the GOP.

Seriously, one of Mitt Romney's greatest assets is his calm, cool, and patrician aspect.

Yet a majority of Repubs who showed up to vote in the primaries went for a vile, spittle flecked, violent, fascist. Go figure?

I have no idea how the Party is going to pull this off, but your analysis of the players seems about right.

 

TeddyR

(2,493 posts)
77. Trump will be the nominee
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 07:08 PM
Jun 2016

But if he isn't, Ryan is the Republican with the best chance to win. He'll keep all the Republican votes plus draw a fair bit of independents.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
81. He won't bail, while he didnt think it would be this bad, he did expect something like this.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 07:17 PM
Jun 2016

His entire strategy for the last few years was to try to win the Repug nominee by behaving the way he has, knowing he would have some ground to make up for the general. I just dont think he and his crew thought it would be this bad.

I'm sure he still thinks he can win this. As long as that is the case its virtually impossible for the GOP to get rid of him.

Again, it would take a majority of his own delegates abandoning him at the convention and voting for a rules change that would disqualify him.

Response to Vinca (Reply #82)

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
89. Nope, at this point it's too late for anyone else from a number of standpoints
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 09:41 PM
Jun 2016

- Building the infrastructure needed to mount a national campaign.

- winning over the GOP base

- Dealing with Clinton and how the Clinton campaign would pounce all over any kind of shenanigans involving a new GOP nominee at this point

- Preparing for the convention

- Preparing a set of policy positions and preparing for the debates

- Building a fundraising apparatus to raise the massive amounts of money you need to compete

All of this is tough enough if you have been campaigning for a year and building to all of it. Starting from scratch now and putting this all together enough to mount a viable G. E. Campaign when you aren't the person your base voted for to begin with?

Anyone who replaces Trump would have a very difficult time being even marginally competitive.

Lord Magus

(1,999 posts)
92. Which is why this "maybe the GOPigs will replace Trump" fantasy will never happen.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 09:50 PM
Jun 2016

They're going to calculate that the least bad option is to simply let Trump lose and hope they can get somebody less overtly repugnant for their 2020 nominee.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
97. The danger isn't that Clinton will win, it's that Trump will do long-term damage to the GOP brand.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 10:56 PM
Jun 2016

I think Trump will probably be nominated, but I would not be shocked if enough delegates abstain and force a brokered convention.

I think the Republican Party has pretty much accepted that Clinton will be the next POTUS. But 5 more months of Trump campaigning could do serious damage to the Republican brand. The GOP is in quite a quandary.

Vinca

(50,236 posts)
100. I think people interpreted my post as pro-Trump which was definitely not intended.
Wed Jun 22, 2016, 07:44 AM
Jun 2016

Quite frankly, given the new rules in this forum, I don't know if I'm allowed to say anything even slightly questionable about Hillary without getting the boot. The fact is, if they somehow drafted Romney and dumped Trump, Hillary would have something to worry about.

dpibel

(2,826 posts)
86. Bloomberg
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 07:59 PM
Jun 2016

Was discussing with my wife earlier.

Bloomberg doesn't have the loser baggage of Romney or the primary gaggle.

Might put NY in play.

Could put together a team in short order.

Lots o' money.

Doesn't come across as a lewnie.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
90. Agreed, plus he knows he can't beat Hillary and frankly doesn't want to and that
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 09:43 PM
Jun 2016

is obvious in everything he has said and done.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
98. Bloomberg was only going to run if both Trump and Sanders were the nominees.
Tue Jun 21, 2016, 10:59 PM
Jun 2016

In that scenario, he'd actually have a chance of at least preventing anyone from reaching 270. But with Clinton winning as expected, Bloomberg isn't going to run.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
104. Doubt it. He's a two time loser. He lost big time in 2012. Maybe running mate Ryan, though.
Wed Jun 22, 2016, 07:55 AM
Jun 2016

He'd make a better contrast to Hillary. And I agree with those who say not to count out Jeb!.

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