Some electoral maps based on predictwise odds.

[DanTex]

Here are a few maps I created based on the state-by-state prediction market odds from predictwise.

As the odds stand right now, Trump would need to win all the states he is favored in, then both OH and FL which are 70% for Hillary, and at least one state that is 80% or more favored for Hillary in order to reach 270. His best bets there are either PA (80% Hillary) or a combination of VA (82%) and one of NH, NV, or IA (all 82%).

For the first map, the solid blue/red are states with 90% or greater forecast, then 80%, then anything over 50%:


http://www.270towin.com/maps/5978d

For this one, the breaks come at 95%, then 85%, then 75%, and the rest are toss-ups.


http://www.270towin.com/maps/qjG7X

[Garrett78]

1. If Trump is the nominee, 332 is a conservative estimate.

Obama won 365 in 2008.

[BlueCaliDem]

2. Yep. eom

[DanTex]

3. Obama got all the states that make up the 332 plus NC and IN.

I can see Hillary winning NC, but IN will be tough. Maybe AZ. Possibly even GA. But there just aren't that many states left to go much beyond 332.

[Garrett78]

5. There certainly is a ceiling. We won't see anyone winning 500, that's for sure.

There are several 'red' states that Clinton is more likely to win than Indiana. NC, GA, LA, AZ, MO and AR to name a handful. I'm not saying she'll win all of those, but I think she'll do better in most or all of those states than she'll do in Indiana.

[tarheelsunc]

8. Home state or not, a Democrat doesn't have a shot in hell at winning Arkansas.

Louisiana is possible I guess but I wouldn't say it's any more possible than Indiana. I agree with you on all the rest.

[Garrett78]

9. B. Clinton won AR in a landslide. He also won LA and GA and MO, while losing IN.

Of course, Bill had much closer ties to AR. And it was a different time. So, yeah, Hillary may do better in IN than she does in AR or LA or GA. But I won't be shocked if she doesn't.

[Gothmog]

4. Thanks for posting this

[LonePirate]

6. Those pink colors for AZ and GA should be of exceptional concern to the Repubs:

If they lose those two states or if Trump has to campaign in them, then the so-called swing states of FL, NC and OH will be deep blue in this election.

[FSogol]

7. The polling I've been seeing suggests that Utah should be pink too. n/t