***BREAKING*** Non-partisan Larry Sabato with excellent track record out with updated electoral map

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[sufrommich]

1. Ouch. nt

[Ellipsis]

2. Delish!

[bigwillq]

3. Cool. My state is solid blue (nt)

[Exilednight]

4. I question the no toss-up part. there are three states that within the MOE for both candidates.

[jberryhill]

26. Addressed at the link

"While Toss-ups are perfectly reasonable at this stage of the campaign, we decided for clarity’s sake to push every close state one way or the other."

[DCBob]

5. That's probably how is going end up.

Sabado is a very smart guy and non-biased.

[Surya Gayatri]

6. Looking good. May these trends continue all the way to November.

Thanks for posting.

[mcar]

7. Looks great!

[JaneyVee]

8. LANDSLIDE!

[oasis]

9. Everything's coming up roses.

[glennward]

10. What is the total electoral votes needed to win?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. 270

[StevieM]

12. I think he is underestimating our prospects for winning Arizona this year.

With Trump as the GOP nominee I definitely feel like we can win that state.

[NurseJackie]

13. Oddly enough, I wouldn't EVER consider living in any of the "red" states...

... coincidence?

And this makes me wonder ... do people MOVE to the Red States because they're red-states? Or is it a cultural thing that causes them to be (and remain) red-states to begin with?

[JSup]

16. In 'red states'...

... young liberal people (with means) move away and everyone else (generalizing) is stuck there doomed to become their parents.

It's like 'liberal flight'.

[NurseJackie]

21. In fairness ... through no fault of their own ... some of the red-states are just too HOT!!

Liberal old (!!!) me prefers a more temperate summer.

[Ash_F]

39. I disagree. It's totally their fault.

[NurseJackie]

44. Ha!! :-D

[Grown2Hate]

58. And me, stuck here in Phoenix because of my good job.

The joke's on the rest of the country during the winter when it's 70 degrees here. For now... I melt.

[Yavin4]

24. Means and intelligence. if you're smart, would you stay in Kansas under Brownback?

And try to start a family with poor public education? Or move to Oregon or Washington with great public schools all the way through college?

If there are great universities in a state, they're more likely to be blue. That's why VA and NC are becoming blue.

[LanternWaste]

29. Or simply attempt and affect change.

Or simply attempt and affect local and regional change. What we do every week in TX under Abbott.

[JSup]

53. I'm in Kansas...

...and no, I wouldn't stay here.

We're actually hoping to, finally, leave later this year.

[uponit7771]

20. There are parts of the red states that are liberal utopias for PoC, its just since conservatives...

... are bastards they misrepresent our voting power and give it to the burbs and rural areas by over representing them via gerrymandering

THAT part of the system is 100% EMPIRICALLY rigged.

That and no REAL gotv ground pound by the DNC

Texas by the numbers is purple but try and convince a DNC chieftain to come and spend some REAL ... not superficial... time and money here and they act like the GOP on gun control; 10000 excuses on why it can't be done

[Ash_F]

22. Very true. All major cities in Texas are blue.

[okasha]

27. All the metro areas, yes, but

rural Texas is also blue from San Antonio south.

[uponit7771]

30. ...save fort worth, they are the ONLY major city proper in the US to vote in GOP numbers they do....

... the east side of fort worth is mostly PoC but the DNC doesn't spend resources there

[Ash_F]

37. Oh yeah forgot they existed :x

[uponit7771]

38. :)

[Yavin4]

25. The state of Washington was like that at one time.

Over time, as the universities graduate more and more students, and they form families. These states start turning blue.

[Maru Kitteh]

42. Well; I live here

Photo I took before heading on the lake with my Kayak.




Surprise snowfall on an early spring camping trip. (it had all melted within an hour or so after dawn)
Open the bottom photo in another window/tab (right-click + view image) for the best viewing

[NurseJackie]

45. It's beautiful! You're very fortunate to live there ...

... as long as Mount Rainier stays calm.

Full disclosure: I've been to the "top" of Mt. Rainier three times. (And by "top" what I actually mean is the highest point that one can drive to.) So I guess it was worth the "risk".

[Hortensis]

55. Many POC, including college grads, have been returning

the South for decades now, in a reversal of the "great migration" north for jobs and etc. Not all southern states, but especially GA, NC, FL, TX, and TN, where people can find middle class and better jobs. After all, not only is the family heritage of many in these areas, but these states tend to have anywhere from 20-33+% black populations, with whole regions heavily black in population, culture, government.

We moved to Georgia because our son moved there and married. And because it was beautiful and affordable and we were ready for a change.

[ismnotwasm]

14. Nice!

[William769]

15. kick & recommended.

[JSup]

17. The South...

...is moving inland.

Edit: That was not a snarky Bernie reference.

[angrychair]

18. Looks promising

But don't get cocky...35% of those EVs are in the softest category of "lean D". Still a lot of room for issues.
GOTV and push to the very last second, especially for your local government (few things are more important that Democratic majorities in as many state legislatures as possible) and House and Senate members for your state.

[Lord Magus]

40. PA could (and frankly should) be moved to "Likely D."

And MN definitely should be in the "Safe D" category. That's a state that Trump polls badly in, lost to Marco Rubio of all people in the caucus and hasn't gone R in literally generations. How much safer could it get?

[angrychair]

46. Hopefully

Admittedly I am much more concerned with reversing down ticket and state and local government voting trends. While we have had a Democratic president for 8 years, we have been losing everything else. Unless we can fix that and get Democrats back in control of state legislatures before the next census, redistricting and gerrymandering could solidify teapublican majorities in state and federal government for decades.

[Lord Magus]

47. With a liberal SCOTUS majority we could get the gerrymandering struck down as unconstitutional. -nt-

[angrychair]

48. Not likely

I am not even aware of a case that made it that far and if one already has than for a new one one related to gerrymandering to be heard an entirety new brief with completely different legal arguments would have to weave it's way through the judiciary to get to them.
If a previous court has already ruled on it, unless a substantive change in conditions has occurred, than existing case law will hold. Getting a case to the USSC is often a long hard battle and even if it reaches them they actually only review and hear a small number of those cases.

[Lord Magus]

56. The members of SCOTUS decide what cases SCOTUS hears.

And we haven't had a liberal majority on SCOTUS for a long time. So it's legitimately possible that with Scalia and possibly Thomas being replaced by Hillary, we could get a ruling against partisan gerrymandering.

[uponit7771]

19. So HRC wins without PA, FL and OH.... himmm

Last edited Thu Jun 23, 2016, 04:37 PM - Edit history (1)

[Ash_F]

23. PA and OH are in danger.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. of who?

[Godhumor]

33. My favorite pollster, of course

So imagine my surprise when Q-Pac showed FL with a solid HRC lead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Freaking out over one poll is for dilettantes.

[Lord Magus]

41. Aren't they the pollster that bizarrely predicts a massively whiter turnout than in 2012?

Or am I thinking of a different poll?

[forest444]

28. I like the looks of that map!

And as an '80s kid, I like it right down to the typography - which many here might remember from the '92 elections.

[Brother Buzz]

31. All things being equal, and if Romney continues to speak against Trump....

I would shift Utah to the toss-up category.

[Ryano42]

35. Excellent! Now play like the score is tied...

Nothing for granted, nothing to chance. Fight!

[NastyRiffraff]

36. YOWZA!

The only "safe" R state with a significant # of delegates is Texas! I think we have a very good chance in both GA and AZ. And is SC really safe? Any other time I'd say yes, but with Trump as nominee? I dunno. Ditto LA.

Looks like a landslide from here, but we still have GOTV work to do!

[Bucky]

43. Maybe it's just my cynical nature, but I don't trust this historical moment.

I still think Trump has some shit up his sleeve. I'd be very happy if the final map looked like this. I'd be ecstatic if Arizona rolled over and John McCain got swept out of office. But my experience keeps telling me there's a few more nasty curves in the road before November comes.

[TheFarseer]

49. Actually a little scary

Because FL, VA, OH, PA, NC are leans D, so they could easily flip if the economy gets worse or Trump does well in the debates etc etc.

[MoonRiver]

50. Twump doing well in debates against Hillary??

[TheFarseer]

51. I'm slightly concerned it will throw her when

Normal debating tactics do not work against him. Also remember, it often doesn't matter who has a better argument. It often only matters who is saying stuff you want to hear. Note, her statement on coal miners in WV. Personally, I think she's only an average debater.

[MoonRiver]

52. I totally disagree with you about her debating skills. I believe she is superb!

Don the Con, by contrast, is a complete dimwit. I am really looking forward to watching her take down that clod in debates!

[LenaBaby61]

54. STILL too early for me to get too excited about ANY electoral map YET....

However....

[Still In Wisconsin]

57. Now she can tack back toward the center.

Excellent news!