Hillary Clinton leads, but Donald Trump supporters are more certain they’ll vote

[applegrove]

Hillary Clinton leads, but Donald Trump supporters are more certain they’ll vote

By Philip Bump at the Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/26/bad-news-lurking-in-a-good-poll-for-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-supporters-are-more-certain-theyll-vote/?tid=sm_tw

"SNIP.............

By race. Seventy-three percent of white men said they were certain to vote, compared with 70 percent of whites overall. Among non-whites, the rates were much lower, with 55 percent saying the same. That's a much lower rate than in 2012 for non-white voters, which was itself down from 2008. Bear in mind, there are more non-white people eligible to vote now than there were eight years ago. As we've pointed out before, the electorate in 2014 was as diverse as it was in 2008.

Most alarming to Clinton supporters may be that only 44 percent of Hispanics said they were certain to vote in November. (Without data for that group from 2008 and 2012, it isn't shown on the chart above.)

By age. Here we can see the pattern above. Voters ages 30 to 39 have become much less likely to say they're certain to vote, while only half of those younger than 30 said in the most recent poll that they were certain to do so. Older voters are more likely to be committed to turning out in November.

By education and income. These two groups overlap to some extent (which is to say that income and education levels are correlated). Those who earn more and are more educated are much more likely to be committed to voting in November.


.............SNIP"

[TwilightZone]

1. Turnout will, of course, be very important.

Not just at the top of the ticket, but down ticket, as well. Might even be more important down ticket if it looks like the main event is going to be a blowout.

[applegrove]

2. My worry is that Trump gets poor whites who don't typically vote out en mass while the young

across the country stay home.

[yeoman6987]

3. Hillary will talk to the white working class before November

That's her weakest area and actually is better then trumps woman voters which is nonexistent. Hillary has time to get their support.

[Jitter65]

6. I just wonder if all those "poor whites" are legitimately registered to vote since many

have never voted before. Since the movements for repressive voting laws have been put in place in so many critical states, what measures are there to insure that the same level voter scrutiny takes place in poor white areas vs poor minority areas?
Are the Dems organizing any kind of poll-watching in critical areas? Are they ready to challenge at the same level that the GOP will surely be challenging voter registrations and eligibility?

[applegrove]

8. I am not calling for obstructing poor whites from voting. I just hope that the young show up.

[robbedvoter]

4. It's just WaPo appying the Clinton rules

Whenever she wins, she loses according tho them. That being said, we need to register, GOTV

[Her Sister]

7. Yep!

[MFM008]

5. We need to be very sure we will vote

I am, are you?