Have you seen the new Quinnipiac poll White/Latino Trump support?

[Funtatlaguy]

Is this the twilight zone?
47% of Whites support Trump. Damn, I'm embarrassed to be white right now.
And, even more surprisingly, 33% of Latinos do?????? Seriously?

The only sane people are blacks who support Trump by only 1%. Michael Steele, I guess.

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us06292016_Utwkv93x.pdf

[drray23]

1. that poll is off.

There is no way 33 % of latinos support Trump. All prior polls suggested he was losing by a lot more with latinos.

[AllTooEasy]

34. IT'S OFFICIAL: BLACKS ARE THE SMARTEST PEOPLE IN AMERICA!!!

YESSSS, WE DID IT!!!



Ok, I'm a little biased.

[uponit7771]

2. +1, and it said 50% of Latinos... I wonder where they polled?!

[Funtatlaguy]

4. Here are numbers in this poll

47-34 Whites favor Trump
50-33. Hispanics favor Clinton
91-1. Blacks favor Clinton

If this poll is anywhere near being correct, our country is so f d up.

He's an imbecile, people.
Do whites and Hispanics not see that? Good lord.

[Hortensis]

18. As a couple of political scientists

warned in a NY Times opinion piece I posted a couple of times, "cringe-worthy" polls are common, and typically the very worst are published and written about. Trash-to-cash journalism. So, any time people start talking about shocking, amazing, wonderful, etc., etc., new numbers in a poll be very suspicious.

Amaf, one of the outstandingly bad, easily debunked examples chosen for that article was a poll showing surprisingly high Hispanic support for Trump.

[Adrahil]

22. Well Quinnipiac is a reputable polling firm...

But even good pollsters get a lousy sample sometimes, or they fuck up their population models. It happens. A 90% confidence means that 1 in 10 of their polls will fall outside the MOE.

[DLCWIdem]

36. as I remember Quinnipiac was under fire recently for thier methodology

[treestar]

38. He's leading with whites?

I did not expect even that!

What friggin' stupid people!

[CobaltBlue]

43. Funtatlaguy—Context…

Margins in 2012:
• Whites: R+20 (Mitt Romney, 59%; Barack Obama, 39%)
• Blacks: D+87 (Romney, 6%; Obama, 93%)
• Hispanics: D+44 (Romney, 27%; Obama, 71%)

Implied Shifts (2012 to 2016):
• Whites: D+7
• Blacks: D+3
• Hispanics: R+27

Does anyone believe, if Democrats and Hillary Clinton are getting shifts nationally from whites, as well even more support from blacks, that Hispanics are nationally shifting toward Republican Donald Trump by 27 percentage points?

[John Poet]

44. Nope. isn't likely.

[NWCorona]

3. I know a few Latinos for Trump and I don't get it at all.

[bklyncowgirl]

7. I'm not completely surprised. Latinos come in many different flavors.

Aside from the normally conservative Cubans, Puerto Ricans who are born citizens of this country, and people whose families have been in this country a long time and who have had to compete with undocumented aliens for work, could very well swing for Trump.

[Sheepshank]

11. There were a few Latinos on this BB that disliked Clinton

...so much they would never vote for her. They were firmly in the BoB camp.

I wonder if that thought process for other BoBers outside of our bubble, played into the poll numbers?

[840high]

27. Correct. I have Latino neighbors

who are for Trump because of jobs.

[Jitter65]

50. For Trump because they don't have jobs or for Trump because the do have jobs? Do they

even know who Trump employees outside of his family?
What specifically has Trump said that indicates he can create jobs and good paying jobs for Americans?

[840high]

52. They do have jobs. Family

came here legally.

[AllTooEasy]

35. They're called White Cubans.

...or any Latino group that hates Mexicans. Trump's speeches have focused on Mexicans. Some Latino, non-Mexican Americans believe that Trump just hates Mexicans. As a Black man, I just don't get the animosity towards Mexicans by non-Mexican Latinos. My best man was Mexican, and a few(not all) of my Puerto Rican friends and all of my Cuban friends hated him before they knew his name. What's going on there?

Sad

[JRLeft]

46. I work with several of them but they're life long republicans.

[stevenleser]

5. I'm not going to believe that unless and until I see another poll corroborating it. Its an outlier

right now.

[Funtatlaguy]

6. I don't want to believe it either.

But, Quinnipiac is pretty well respected usually.

Was Trump correct during the primary when he said he could kill someone on 5th Avenue and people would still vote for him?
Will 40% of all Americans vote for anyone who is the R nominee?
Does competence and bigotry and narcissism not matter?
Or do they just hate Hillary more than they disrespect Trump?

[brush]

8. Well, they've lost my respect

Any poll that's says 33% of Latinos favor Trump is to be laughed at.

He's threatening to export 11 million people, build a wall, called people rapist and criminals and they expect us to believe that 33% of those people support someone who said those things and threatened to do those things?

Come on, we're not fools.

We've seen the other polls where Trump's support among Latino Americans is just about as low as it is with African Americans.

Don't bother us with crappola polls.

[stevenleser]

23. Even the most respected polls have bad results occasionally. If all other polls are showing

something else, that's a good indication.

[brush]

9. Not a credible poll — but quite laughable with the Latino results.

Come on. 33% of Latino Americans favor the guy who threatens to send 11 million people out of the country and build a wall?

Tell us another one. We need a good laugh.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

10. Not credible because we don't agree with the results?

538 gives them...
an A-

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[brush]

13. Come on. We've seen other polls on Latinos and Trump

Do you really believe that 33% of Latino Americans favor Trump?

I know better. If you're on this site as a progressive, you should know better too.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

14. No, the polls suggest he is in the 20's with Latinos, not the 30's.

This is a result, not a sampling error though.

[brush]

15. So you do know better.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

16. Because I believe his support is in the 20's not the 30's does not make the poll "not credible".

If the poll sampled 90% whites and 3% Latinos it would not be credible.

[brush]

17. Hah! That poll is not credible. We all know how easy it is to manipulate poll results.

They need to go to East L.A., see if they get 33% Latinos favoring Trump.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

19. Exactly. They would probably get 20% or 25%. We agree.

[Kingofalldems]

20. Did you see what Nate Silver said re Hillary?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931

Yikes. Trump supporters not liking this one.

[MoonRiver]

12. I don't trust Quinnipiac. They were constantly wrong during the Dem primary.

Can't understand why it is CNN's favorite polster. Oh wait...

[DLCWIdem]

39. I know I saw an article recently within the last month that was questioning

The Qunnipiac polls and its methodology. And as to Fox news polls I dont care what 538 gave them as a grade they were consistantly off during tthe primaries. You should check that grade now.

[rusty fender]

21. I can believe that 33% Hispanic/Latinos

support Trump. I live in NM and I know that many Hispanics, whose families have been here for more than a generation, very much resent illegal immigrants from Mexico, Central and South America. It's a very real sentiment.

Thankfully, though, most Hispanics see Trump as the racist he is and will vote against him.

[SheenaR]

24. I absolutely believe this

Here in the NE Puerto Ricans and Dominicans in my social group are Pro-Trump. They have a deep resentment for Mexicans and Central Americans. So I can see it.

It's still ridiculous though.

[HumanityExperiment]

25. Quinnipiac polls

538 gives them an A-

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

I've mentioned numerous times that historic unfavorables on both candidates are a cause for concern

you can't dismiss the facts

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/

[840high]

29. Quinnipiac polls are reliable.

[leftofcool]

30. And yet they were way off in the Primary.

So, no, they are not overly reliable.

[HumanityExperiment]

32. Nate says otherwise...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

he gives them an A-

[840high]

37. Which is very good.

[RAFisher]

53. Way off? By what metric? Any examples?

It's hard to argue with Silver when he calculates how off polls were and gave them an A-. Also all of this assumes that there is a strong correlation between primary polling accuracy and general election polling accuracy. I don't even know if that is the case. Primaries could be harder to poll.

[HumanityExperiment]

31. agreed

n/t

[Person 2713]

54. True dat - people GOTV !!

[Motley13]

26. Must have polled Marco Rubio

n/t

[Vattel]

28. I have to say, as a demographic, younger voters are way better than older voters.

White voters back Trump 47 – 34 percent. Black voters back Clinton 91 – 1 percent and Hispanic voters back her 50 – 33 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years old go Democratic 48 – 23 percent, while voters over 65 years old go Republican 51 – 35 percent.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

41. What the fuck, Hispanics???

[Vattel]

42. There are a lot of very conservative hispanics.

Many oppose choice. Also, Trump insulted Mexicans during the primaries, but (to my knowledge) not other Hispanics.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

47. Sure. I understand the conservatism. The same is true of black American voters. Also, I don't

think that the racists on that side make the distinction between Mexicans and other Hispanics. Those folks are not too bright. Everyone who "looks different" is Mexican, no Salvadorian or Puerto Rican, etc. Cuban Americans get a break, and we know why.

[Vattel]

49. White racists may not make the distinction, but hispanics do.

So there is no guarantee that, for example, a Cuban American will be insulted by racism towards Mexican immigrants.

[bigwillq]

33. I thought the white vote would be higher (nt)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

40. This has always been the case.

[pnwmom]

45. Can anyone see what the demographics were of their sample?

I can't find that anywhere. If the sample size of Hispanics was very small, it is more likely to be skewed.

I also can't find out if any of the interviews were conducted in Spanish, which also would affect results.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. WSJ, WAPO, and PPP have Trump at 21%, 22%, and 13% with Hispanics.

Romney won 59% of the white vote to Obama's 39%



http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

[Iliyah]

51. Majority of the Laitnos are not going to vote for T-rump.

Period. Majority of the POC will not vote for T-rump, but a equal amount of White men will vote for HRC and sizeable amount of White women will for HRC.

[JCMach1]

55. That's how you know there is something off about the poll... no way he earns 8% more Latino vote

than Romney did...

[uponit7771]

56. They COULD be including Hispanic white vs Hispanic non white... big difference

[John Poet]

57. So 53% of whites DON'T support Trump?

Democrats don't usually get the majority of whites, so that's pretty damn good, if you ask me.