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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538 launches 2016 Election Forecast: Hillary 80.6% chance of winning; Trump 19.3%
538 has Hillary as likely to win 353 EVs.
Good stuff at link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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538 launches 2016 Election Forecast: Hillary 80.6% chance of winning; Trump 19.3% (Original Post)
morningfog
Jun 2016
OP
MFM008
(19,776 posts)1. Even though he said
Our Seahawks would win super bowl 49...we did not.
And he said Trump would never be the nominee.....
It's still good to see.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)7. His Trump prediction was not his model's projection.
And his models are probability based. So an 80% likely of a win, mean's a 20% (1 in 5) chance of losing. Work hard, everyone!
Koinos
(2,792 posts)2. K & R
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)3. Massive K & R. Thanks for posting.
I would love to see Texas turn blue though, as well.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)6. It looks within striking distance. We need 50 state strategy.
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)10. What's so exciting about a 50 state strategy...
this year is that it looks like we have a very legitimate shot at gaining seats!
Stellar
(5,644 posts)5. Good for Hillary! nt
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)8. Excellent news!
but we need to bring those numbers up by about 10 points.
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)9. Thank you for sharing!
We need to keep fighting to get the down ballots voted in as well!
Vattel
(9,289 posts)11. I would put the probability of a Clinton win at 98%