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MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
Fri Jul 1, 2016, 03:22 PM Jul 2016

Populism seems to have its limits.

I put that limit at about 40% of people who vote. About. Whether it is populism from the left or the right, populist candidates always seem to generate a loud, active following, but appear to hit a wall at about 40%. In a majority-rule democratic government, that's just not enough.

Generally, populism tends to pit some group against another group that somehow supposedly "exploits" the first group. That's why it is used by politicians on both sides of the political spectrum. From one side the exploiters are wealthy oligarchs. From the other side the exploiters are the "damned liberals" who want to take everything that is "sacred" away. The exploiters and exploited seem to shift around, almost at random, it seems.

40%. No more. That's all the support populists seem to be able to muster. In some societies, like Germany in the 1930s, that was enough, since the 40% took control and suppressed (or killed) the rest. In the USA, it's not so easy, and populists from both the left and right seem to stall out at some point and fail to thrive or become victorious.

And so it appears to be this year. At this point, we have a populist from the sort-of right attempting to overtake a more broadly-based candidate from the general center left of political philosophy. Donald Trump is pitting the belabored white male demographic against just about everyone else. On racial, gender and other grounds, he's selling the idea that those white men are being held back and exploited. To some degree, they're buying it, too. But only to some degree, and it's not a large enough degree to beat that 40% thing.

I predict that, if Trump sticks it out until November, 40% is about the percentage of the overall vote he'll get. Something near that, anyhow. In US politics, the candidate with the remaining 60% is considered the winner by a landslide. Trump will hit that wall soon after the convention and will never rise beyond it. Hitting that wall is going to hurt, I imagine.

Hillary 2016!

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Populism seems to have its limits. (Original Post) MineralMan Jul 2016 OP
Hillary with about 54%, Trump about 40%, the dozen or so others get the rest. tonyt53 Jul 2016 #1
Could be, although it could be Hillary with 60% and Trump with 30-something percent. MineralMan Jul 2016 #2
Sounds good, all else being equal, but conservatives Hortensis Jul 2016 #3

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
2. Could be, although it could be Hillary with 60% and Trump with 30-something percent.
Fri Jul 1, 2016, 03:25 PM
Jul 2016

The others may pull 10%, mainly on the Libertarian side, but I think it will come from Trump's voters.

We'll find out, though. That's certain.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
3. Sounds good, all else being equal, but conservatives
Fri Jul 1, 2016, 05:26 PM
Jul 2016

are a natural ally, having a lot of concerns in common if not in the same order.

One terrorist attack here or influx of 50,000 Middle Eastern refugees in October (as if our Democratic leaders would be so stupid as to allow that timing) could grow that 40% to >60%.

And remember, Hitler hit the same three-pronged theme Ronald Reagan did of economy, protection of traditional values and religion from secularism, and national defense. The big difference was that the German people were even more worried about and hurting from their very badly broken economy, daughters heading for cities instead of marriage beds, and Stalin's tanks a mere week or two away across open plains. The people of Germany voted the Nazis into power. The fear came later.

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