2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI don't understand why so many people are being taken in by Trump - One answer
A friend of mine wrote this and graciously gave me permission to post it here. I think he makes a lot of sense about why we are seeing this 'Trump phenomenon'.
Q: Why are so many people being taken in By Trump?
A: For the same reason so many Germans were taken in by Hitler ... because both men spoke in populist language to a population that was in dire economic situation, and whom the existing power structure had served very badly. Hitler didn't have the best ideas either, and he spoke in wide demagoguery that demonized specific racial groups, but specifically, he used that racial animus to tell people that their problems were caused by Jews, and that they could be fixed by getting rid of Jews. In the absence of any voices on the other side actually addressing the concerns of the average German, the rhetoric of Hitler was very attractive, not because he was offering good answers, but because he was offering the ONLY answers that specifically addressed their concerns (albeit in a disingenuous, racist way).
That describes the Trump campaign, and the larger general campaign it's happening within, to a T. No one is directly addressing the problems that globalization has caused for the middle and working classes, except Trump, now that Sanders is effectively sidelined. Clinton tries to speak to those issues, but does so from within the perspective of being one of the architects of the globalization movement. She can't rail against free trade deals that strip jobs away from Americans to send them to places like Bangladesh with no safety or health regulations, and near slave labour working conditions, because she's been a huge proponent of those very trade deals her whole career. So she can't talk about destroying the system that many of the people she wants votes from want destroyed because she helped build it. Trump can and does talk about that, and even if it's self-serving and largely lies, he's the only one in the game actually talking to people about solutions to their problems.
I think as long as the left wing choice is a neo-liberal, Trump will see dangerous success. There's a segment of the progressive left that, frankly, is done with the neo-liberalism that has created a second gilded age where income inequality is at the highest levels it's been since the last gilded age. Only a few of those people will actually cast a vote for Trump, but a bunch of them will refuse to vote for the Democrats, either staying home, or casting their vote for a truly progressive leftist candidate like Jill Stein. And there's a segment of independents who are looking for change in the world, people who would have happily jumped on the Sanders wagon, but who are now left without a Democratic candidate who supports their causes. Some of them will vote Trump, again because he is the only one in the two major parties even trying to address the inequality and job security issues, but again, more will stay home or vote for the progressive Green option.
So it makes perfect sense to me why people are "taken in" by Trump. It's the same reason people have been taken in by demagogues in the past ... there are real, serious problems in the society that mainstream politicians are unable or unwilling to address in a substantive way that fixes anything. Demagogues can come in and address those problems in a direct and forthright manner through the use of deep seated racial and class animosity. That's exactly what Trump is doing ... playing the very REAL concerns of poor white voters about their economic situation through racial and class based attacks. It's not a new script, and as we can see from history, it's a script that works a lot of the time. And it works, mostly, because the mainstream politicians the demagogue replaces are unwilling or unable to directly address the true root of the problems in their society.
I think the Brexit vote shows how willing people are today to go outside the normal bounds to have their problems addressed. And I think the Trump phenomena is a similar dynamic in the US. The Leave campaign didn't offer good answers, but crucially, they were the only ones willing to criticize the system that makes the current situation possible, and that criticism is what captured people's attention because, while they don't know how to fix the problem, they know that global trade policies that allow labour ghettos to drive the cost of labour down to near zero ARE the problem, and in the absence of anyone else acknowledging that, they will follow the people who do. In the UK that was the Leave campaign, and in the US right now it's Trump. The only(?) way to mute Trump's appeal is to have a strong candidate on the other side who can credibly stand up and say "Free trade is biased toward business and destructive to workers, and that bias needs to be fixed." Trump says that (disingenuously), Jill Stein says that, and Bernie says that ... but crucially, Clinton says that the system is fine, it just needs tweaks here or there (see her counter to Bernie's free tuition proposal ... for Clinton, it's partial relief of partial loans for a short period for a small group of people who start businesses, and nothing for anyone else).
That's why "so many people are being taken in by Trump" ... because the candidate from the other major party thinks our existing system is working fine, and requires no major changes. Trump is saying "It's broken" loudly and often, and even if his solutions are ridiculously out to lunch, while the other side refuses to acknowledge the system is even broken, Trump will continue to see support both from his base, and from unlikely sources outside the Republican base as well. The people think the system is broken, and unless the Democrats nominate someone willing to run on the platform that the system is fundamentally broken, they face a very tough fight in November. Trump's success comes from the same place the success of other demagogues in history came from ... from a recognition by the populace of a broken system, and a refusal by mainstream politicians to directly address the fact that the system is broken.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)And only want the chaos that a Trump presidency would bring.
It reminds me of that test teachers use to see who really owns the pencil.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)whoever actually said it, had it right: "Some people can be fooled all the time." Because they insist on being told what they want to hear.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)Never before has so much information been at the tips of one's fingertips and people still want to be sheep.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)decisions. W told the simple truth when he said he didn't bother to read newspapers but instead listened to the messages from his belly.
Sure, some are very authoritarian and want a strong leader, but they don't see themselves as sheep following a leader. They want the leader to strengthen them as a directed force that can impose their wishful but righteous beliefs on the rest of their recalcitrant nation. (Many on the more radical left share that same wish, thus the surprising but not accidental resemblances between the current leaders.)
Most social conservative Christians, for instance, don't really need or want everyone else converted into pleasing God as much as they do (and, god forbid, joining them in the afterlife). They just want them forced into obedience, and respect, with them on top.
yardwork
(61,539 posts)The people supporting Trump aren't Democrats. They don't care who the Democratic nominee is. They are driven by hatred and resentment and Trump gives voice to their prejudices and gives them permission to display their ignorance.
pampango
(24,692 posts)Depression. Harding, Coolidge and Hoover were conservatives - strict immigration laws, high tariffs, low taxes on the rich, deregulation, anti-union, etc.
Trump is not "created" by trade policy although he would like to think so.
Our problems are caused by conservative economic policies, like austerity, deregulation, privatization, cutting the safety net. Trump is not running against any of those policies, indeed he supports them, but is focused on trade. Odd that the other policies are American-made and enforced against Americans. A focus on trade brings in supporters who are xenophobic and racist and don't really understand what conservative economics is all about. Telling our problems are all the fault of foreigners, has gotten Trump the republican nomination.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism#Current_usage
We can try to out-Trump Trump in the general election. We can also blame our problems on trade and foreigners and deemphasize the role that the American elite plays in austerity, et al. That might even be the best way to win, if winning is what it is all about, but it won't educate anyone about our real problems or actually solve our problems unless we then break all the campaign promises once we are in office.
Stonepounder
(4,033 posts)he just 'promises' to cure the problems caused by globalism - the income inequality, the flight of middle-class jobs, etc. He doesn't really say how he is going to do this, and he certainly doesn't practice what he preaches. But he is a demagogue and he speaks to a primal level that doesn't really analyze, it just responds to the raw emotion.
brush
(53,743 posts)without any explanation of how she's a neo-liberal, perhaps because the term is not really understood.
What's really going on with Trump and his supporters are xenophobia and racism.
They want the country back when African Americans were in the back of the bus, women were barefoot and pregnant and non-documented people were constantly fearful of deportation but greatly exploited for their labor.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)That is where we are heading.
Being against these trade deals which have been damaging to people and their lives
that's the trend.
Hillary Clinton now being against the TPP is good. It's where she should be.
Stonepounder
(4,033 posts)since she appears to have been one of the architects of Free Trade.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Party. In the Senate she voted both for and against trade agreements, while many other Democrats always vote for them. She's more prone to support such agreements than Bernie is, but not nearly as prone to support them as Wyden or Cantwell.
I supported Bernie in the primary but I've always made the point that Hillary has better standards on trade agreements than many other Democrats and she is in fact closer to Bernie on such agreements than she is to several other voting Democrats. She has no pivot to make. She's always said she was waiting to see the agreement, when she saw it it did not meet her standards.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)And an even larger majority of Democrats do. The perceived mass opposition to it is largely an echo chamber effect that doesn't reflect actual voters' preferences.
pampango
(24,692 posts)So far the polls I have seen show that the Democratic base agrees with Obama not with Trump. The republican base is a different matter, of course.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)@ http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-trailguide-updates-how-much-has-donald-trump-influenced-1467473514-htmlstory.html
How much has Donald Trump influenced Republicans? Look at the drop in support for free trade
But whats more startling has been the shift in their party. GOP support for free trade dropped 20 percentage points between 2009 and 2016 from 59% of Republicans agreeing that U.S. trade agreements have been a good thing in a 2009 survey to 39% saying so this year, according to the Pew Research Center.
The biggest drop happened this year down from 53% in 2015 lending evidence to the theory that Trump has led on the issue.
Support for free trade among Democrats has moved in the opposite direction since 2009, but has not dropped below 51%. Its now up to 59%.
Republicans used to be seen as the party of free trade while Democrats were viewed as the protectionists, largely because of their ties to organized labor who saw open borders as a threat to manufacturing jobs.
The parties flipped in 2011, according to Pews polling. That coincided with the growth of the tea party movement, the first rumblings of a blue-collar base, some of whom Trump has harnessed in a new direction this year.
But not everyone opposes trade for the same reasons. Many skeptics on the left, like Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, say these deals allow opportunities to undermine consumer regulations on big banks and business.
And, if Democrats (as an entire party), do not move (and Bernie Sanders is correct), and we get more trade deals, via neoliberal economic policies, pounding even more nails into what is left of the "middle class" this will help to re-empower the Republicans at the presidential level as soon as 2020.
Thomas Frank has it right about a lot of the current Democrats (and to whom their powerful like to woo): They are the Professional Class. And that's a problem. It's key to why whites have moved to the Republicans. (You cannot accurately pin it all on racism applicable to however many whites.)
bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)Donald Trump has been the epitome of the "billionaire" with his flashy persona and flashier projects that It's surprising how little the average person knows about how Trump got rich (essentially inherited his money) and the bad business decisions he's made over the years. Being from NY/NJ I have some credibility on this with people who are not dyed in the wool Wingnuts.
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)Please tell me exactly what solutions Trump is offering beside broad general statements that describe the problem and blaming the problem on Obama or Hillary? "we're going to win" is not a solution. Neither is "we are going to be great again" a solution. Nor is "we are going to bring back all the jobs including coal jobs."
Who is ever going to be honest about globalization and educate people to understand no single person or group of people actually planned globalization. Technology, automation, communication created the underpinnings of globalization and what we see is actually reaction to so-called "globalization." No one political operative is responsible for globalization or its outcome. If you want to blame something or someone, blame Steve Jobs, blame Mark Zuckerman, blame whoever designs, makes and uses robots to replace workers. Then blame the companies that use these technologies...all of which is really silly and unresponsive to the needs of peoples around the globe seeking to know their places in this new global economy.
And if you ask me for a solution it would be for the wealth holders to invest SOME of their wealth in the places where they reside and/or hide their wealth in building up those nations and the surrounding nations that are poor and in need of raised standards of living. Those jobs cannot be exported from the places needing the rebuilding. Train and employ the native peoples to build and in some cases re-build their infrastructures for modernity...yes, a world-wide infrastructure for raising sanitary/security/safety/social/educational/healthy infrastructures to serve the people in place. We already steal the resources from these nations...it's time to use their resources to work for them.
Stonepounder
(4,033 posts)said 'he was talking to them about their problems'.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)Last edited Sun Jul 3, 2016, 03:51 PM - Edit history (2)
or humanitarian considerations, standard economic theory would predict that deporting 11 million workers would produce gains for workers who remain, as the supply of labor would be reduced while demand for labor stayed the same or declined only modestly.
Oh yeah, I forgot to factor in costs to society in terms of mass civil disobedience, should der Fuhrer actually implement his plans.
AC_Mem
(1,979 posts)Is to start hitting the airwaves and wake up Americans to what the GOP has done since Bush, what they caused during President Obama's two elected terms, putting our country at risk again and again because of their insane racist hate of our president and against the will of the majority, who have expressed that will over and over. Expose their corruption, lies, obstruction, their votes. People have short memories. We need to be reminded of what most assuredly will happen if the GOP has America in their power. Those who criticize have probably been saved from a very different lifestyle had our good President not been able to guide us through a literal sea of hatred.
think
(11,641 posts)December 11, 2015 9:40 AM EST ERIC BOEHLERT
Does that ratio seem out of whack? That's the ratio of TV airtime that ABC World News Tonight has devoted to Donald Trump's campaign (81 minutes) versus the amount of TV time World News Tonight has devoted to Bernie Sanders' campaign this year. And even that one minute for Sanders is misleading because the actual number is closer to 20 seconds.
~Snip~
Obviously, Trump is the GOP frontrunner and its reasonable that he would get more attention than Sanders, who's running second for the Democrats. But 234 total network minutes for Trump compared to just 10 network minutes for Sanders, as the Tyndall Report found?
Andrew Tyndall provided the breakdown by network of Sanders' 10 minutes of coverage, via email [emphasis added]:
CBS Evening News: 6.4 minutes
NBC Nightly News: 2.9 minutes
ABC World News: 0.3
~Snip~
And before anyone suggests ABC has somehow been in the pocket of the Clinton campaign and that's why Sanders got slighted, note that World News Tonight has set aside roughly the same amount of time this year to cover Republican-fed controversies surrounding Clinton's email and details about the Benghazi terror attack, as it has to cover Clinton's actual campaign....
Read more:
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/12/11/abc-world-news-tonight-has-devoted-less-than-on/207428
MSNBC also devoted air time to show entire Trump rallies:
by Tommy Christopher | 11:44 am, December 8th, 2015
~Snip~
That network is MSNBC, and theyve actually been doing this for quite some time, but Monday night was a last straw of sorts. For the past few months, theyve put Trump rallies on the air sporadically, usually on a Friday night, and usually consisting of standard Trump fare: readings of his poll numbers, insults of his rivals, and the occasional heckler. These were also all screwings of the pooch, but mostly because it was lazy and of poor news value....
Read more:
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/why-the-hell-is-msnbc-airing-live-donald-trump-rallies/
Something to consider...
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)The theme of the fall and winter is what crazy ass thing is he going to say next.
Journalism has been dead since the 80s. They were broadcasting a reality TV show.
Lint Head
(15,064 posts)hear or see related two conspiracy theories promoted by the very media they despise. His followers are intellectually lazy. They get up in the morning turn on Fox News, listen to Rush Limbaugh on the radio all day at work, come home and turn on Fox News again. That's about it. The scope of their knowledge is contained in those places. Of course there are more right-wing radio and television sources and blogs on the internet. But if it's a sensational lie promoted with excitement and exuberance from the mouth of a slick news reader they eat it up. And those media outlets need the numbers to make a profit with their advertising.
Native
(5,936 posts)When asked about his various WTFness comments or stances, they simply shrug it off (they never seem to deny or give excuses for him), and then they'll say, "but he's for ..... blah, blah, blah (insert racist comment)" or something inane like, "but he want's to make America great" or "he's a great businessman." It seems to always be the same 3 things. Lotta stupid and hate out there.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)The idea that this is about people in "dire economic straits" is largely a fantasy of people who think dire economic straits will motivate the revolution that they want.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)current system and (2) Hillary is the candidate offering more of the status quo while Trump's promising change.
It's that simple.
You and I know Trump is full of shit, but some people just feel like they're getting fucked and Trump is the only candidate who seems to be saying the fucking ought to stop.
I still think Hillary wins the general election, but then I thought Jeb or Rubio or Kasich would have beaten Trump for the Republican nomination, I thought Hillary would have mathematecially locked up the Democratic nomination in March, and I thought the UK would have rejected the Brexit plan so me and Nate Silver are both clearly no longer reliable in our forecasts.
Maybe Hillary is no smarter than Jeb or Rubio or Cruz or Walker or Christie or Kasich or me or Nate Silver and she, too, is grossly underestimating Trump's appeal. I guess we'll find out in November.
Dan
(3,538 posts)With a GOP Congress and the ability to select at least one justice to the Supreme Court., What happens next - what does his base expect? How far or extreme will this nation become? I remember reading "Hilter's Willing Executioners", and I wonder...
FixTheProblem
(22 posts)Plus, poor whites are "destroying the middle class" and we're automatically racist.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)CanadaexPat
(496 posts)It's a protest vote.
Response to Stonepounder (Original post)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
VOX
(22,976 posts)It's been wall-to-wall Trump on virtually every media outlet for a solid year now.
CBS head exec Les Moonves himself said,
Its a terrible thing to say, but, bring it on, Donald. Keep going. And worse yet: "It May Not Be Good for America, but It's Damn Good for CBS."
Instead of dismantling the staggering, outrageous crap-fest that is Trump, he's been "legitimized" by the media's countless hours of exposure and airtime, with Trump given thorough and complete access, anywhere, anytime. It's unprecedented in American history -- handing over an unlimited-use megaphone to an infantile, strutting narcissist like Trump.