Reminder, Trump Is About 1 Week Away From Hitting the Point of No Return

[Doctor Jack]

In the past 80 years, only 1 candidate (George HW Bush) came back from being behind in the polls by mid-July to win the election. Unless Trump makes up a roughly 6.5 point deficit in the averages in the next 7 days, he will be in the same position that over 97% of candidates that ended up losing the election also found themselves in. Right now, Clinton's poll numbers are either very stable or may be rising ever so slightly. Trump will need to reverse that trend and then overtake Hillary in the next few days or else history says his odds of winning the election are just under 3%.

Just as a reminder, in the past 13 months since Trump began his campaign, he has not lead even 1 day in the averages.

[PlainWhiteTease]

1. Cool fact, but you seem to be off on some specifics.

Clinton actually has been declining for the most part in the last 10 days, according to RCP.

25th: 6.7% lead
26th: 6.8% lead
27th: 6.8% lead
28th: 6.1% lead
29th: 4.8% lead
30th: 4.8% lead
1st: 4.5% lead
2nd: 4.5% lead
3rd: 4.6% lead

Huff Post Pollster also went down from 6.0 to 5.7 today. Still a great lead though. Cool statistic.

[Doctor Jack]

2. She should actually jump in the averages in a bit

The news Reuters poll has her moving from 10 to 13 point lead

[1StrongBlackMan]

3. Plus ...

The indictment fairy's not appearing will create a bump, as well.

[Doctor Jack]

4. Could be or she at least won't fall any

I think the combo of a disastrous republican convention and Hillary's VP pick will largely end any slim chance Trump might have had to win. Time to wrap this election up.

[Boomer]

5. Don't get complacent

I'll be biting my fingernails until the last general election vote is counted.

[Doctor Jack]

6. I'm not running her campaign so I don't think it matters how confident I personally am

I'll support her with all my heart but I am just some random jackass on the internet. My level of confidence will have 0 impact on the election.

[PlainWhiteTease]

7. I think it's good for the general voterblock to feel "nervous".

I don't think that the idea that we will win no matter what just because Statistic A has only lined up with Statistic B once in history is a good one to get used to or promote.

I think we should instill the idea within the voters of our party that this election is a live one, and that their vote matters. It's not a lie, and I believe that it's the position that would help voter turnout the most. "There's no way she'll win in November" and "There's no way he'll win in November" is going to do nothing but de-energize the base. And if people were to actually believe it, they'd think their vote no longer matters.

Again, not that it's your job to energize the base. Still, nothing wrong with the post, I appreciate the statistic.