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Trump, Romney, and Data Denial Syndrome
Few supporters of Donald Trump will take kindly to the suggestion that he has anything in common with Mitt Romney. It is nonetheless true that the former suffers from a significant handicap that also hobbled the latter—overzealous partisans who flatly refuse to acknowledge very real challenges facing their candidate. The most obvious example involves an affliction that can be styled, “Data Denial Syndrome.” The primary symptoms of this condition include paranoia about the predispositions of public opinion pollsters and an irrational belief that there is a highly motivated, yet oddly silent, group of voters who support the GOP nominee.
During 2012, Data Denial Syndrome reached pandemic proportions. An astonishing number of normally sensible analysts predicted that Mitt Romney would easily beat the president despite consistent polling data portending a narrow victory for Obama. Most of these prognostications were based on the erroneous belief that pollsters were understating Romney’s support using models that included implausible Democrat turnout estimates. More than a few told us Romney would win in a landslide. Newt Gingrich, for example, predicted that the former Massachusetts governor would bury Obama beneath a “53 percent-plus” share of the popular vote.
Romney received only 47.7 percent, yet Gingrich failed to learn anything from his five-point whiff. This year he’s at it again. Recently, the former House Speaker denounced an ABC News-Washington Post poll as irretrievably biased against Donald Trump. Ironically, that very survey was among the most accurate of the 2012 election cycle, projecting that Obama would win by 3 points (he won by 3.9%). Gingrich was, of course, not the only member of the “ignore the polls, Mitt will win” club. Other members included Ann Coulter, Larry Kudlow, Jeffrey Lord, Dick Morris, John Nolte, as well as radio personalities Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.
Not coincidentally, the folks listed above are now Trump supporters and most are still engaged in magical thinking about the polls and attacking anyone who declines to drink the Kool-Aid. Now, before going any further, I’d like to preemptively dispose of a complaint I sometimes get from Trump supporters who dislike what I write about him. This objection usually goes as follows: Catron does fine on health care, but he falls flat when he strays from his area of expertise. For the record, statistical analysis is a big part of my “day job.” And, at the risk of seeming immodest, I predicted in early 2012 that Romney hadn’t a prayer of beating Obama.
During 2012, Data Denial Syndrome reached pandemic proportions. An astonishing number of normally sensible analysts predicted that Mitt Romney would easily beat the president despite consistent polling data portending a narrow victory for Obama. Most of these prognostications were based on the erroneous belief that pollsters were understating Romney’s support using models that included implausible Democrat turnout estimates. More than a few told us Romney would win in a landslide. Newt Gingrich, for example, predicted that the former Massachusetts governor would bury Obama beneath a “53 percent-plus” share of the popular vote.
Romney received only 47.7 percent, yet Gingrich failed to learn anything from his five-point whiff. This year he’s at it again. Recently, the former House Speaker denounced an ABC News-Washington Post poll as irretrievably biased against Donald Trump. Ironically, that very survey was among the most accurate of the 2012 election cycle, projecting that Obama would win by 3 points (he won by 3.9%). Gingrich was, of course, not the only member of the “ignore the polls, Mitt will win” club. Other members included Ann Coulter, Larry Kudlow, Jeffrey Lord, Dick Morris, John Nolte, as well as radio personalities Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.
Not coincidentally, the folks listed above are now Trump supporters and most are still engaged in magical thinking about the polls and attacking anyone who declines to drink the Kool-Aid. Now, before going any further, I’d like to preemptively dispose of a complaint I sometimes get from Trump supporters who dislike what I write about him. This objection usually goes as follows: Catron does fine on health care, but he falls flat when he strays from his area of expertise. For the record, statistical analysis is a big part of my “day job.” And, at the risk of seeming immodest, I predicted in early 2012 that Romney hadn’t a prayer of beating Obama.
http://spectator.org/trump-romney-and-data-denial-syndrome/
