Toady on MTP Today: June Polls A Good Indicator of Nov Results

[stopbush]

Chuckie Todd did a short segment today that looked at the last few presidential election cycles. They showed that the poll numbers in June often end up being the election result numbers in November.

BTW - yes, he did point out that Hillary currently enjoys a 9-point lead over The Racist.

[RandySF]

1. That supports my 8-point spread.

[Gabi Hayes]

2. he showed at least two results, maybe three: both obama victories

which were each within a point of the June polling numbers.

can't remember if there was a third

he DID mention Dukakis, who was up HUUUUGELY, but then the Willy Horton ad and the tank pic, along with the rape and kill question, doomed his campaign

[MFM008]

3. I'm hoping double

Digit loss for rump.

[Frances]

4. I just hope that Hillary will have the kind of

telephone support Obama had. I live in CA but a real estate office let a group of people make phone calls from their office. Obama headquarters sent us lists of names to call in swing states. I remember one person in Ohio telling me that he had planned to vote for Obama, but if he didn't stop getting calls asking him to vote for Obama, he wasn't going to the polls. So, maybe some overkill, but obviously, Obama was reaching his target voters.

[AgadorSparticus]

5. Reuters/Ipsos poll has her 13 pts up now.

[Hortensis]

6. Back on May 1 a Princeton article discussed the

pattern that is continuing. Fwiw, June numbers would reflect the effect of right-wing propaganda claiming HRC would be indicted. Now those paying attention know definitively that it is not possible and more will clue in over time.

The November outcome should be within 1 SD of current polls approximately two-thirds of the time. Hillary Clinton’s polling margin over Donald Trump is currently +8% (median of 19 pollsters since mid-March) – twice the standard deviation.

Based on past years, how likely is it that Trump can catch up? It is possible to convert Clinton’s lead to a probability using the t-distribution*, which can account for outlier events like 1964 and 1980. Using this approach, the probability that Trump can catch up by November is 9%, and the probability that Clinton will remain ahead of Trump is 91%**. This probability doesn’t take into account Electoral College mechanisms. But since the bias of the Electoral College is quite small, it does not make a difference in the calculation.

I should note that the polls have been telling us this information for some time. In the first half of March, Clinton led Trump by a median of 9 percentage points. Using an SD of 4.5 percentage points, her win probability would come out as 93%. So today’s estimate has been knowable for several months.

This is a result that may excite Democrats. However, it is subject to change. For example, the SD increases to about 7% in June, which combined with a lead of Clinton +8% corresponds to an 83% win probability, less certain than today. And of course the polls could change. I don’t know why polls would be less predictive in summer. Maybe general election campaign events drive polls away from where they would naturally go otherwise. Post-convention bounces would be examples of such events. http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/

Btw, this site shows the GOP barely holding control of the Senate.